Adou Thiero Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 21.1 years (65th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Junior

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 6.25''

• Wingspan: 7' 0.00''

• NBA Size: Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at Wing

• bpm: 8.2 (57th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • leading scorer (highest usg and pts/40)

  • high 2P%

  • above average blk% and stl%

  • ast/tov over 1 at 1.1

  • above average rim shooting %

  • high mid shooting %

  • high dunksmade/40

  • above average rim rate

  • average shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

  • high ftr

• Flaws:

  • low FT% and 3P%

  • low 3pa/100

  • no pull up 3s

  • above average pfr

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 24 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Sum: 5

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 10 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 7 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 1 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 2 of 30

  • Overall:

    • distant neighbours

    • very high production in NBA

1. Star: Butler, Randle

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Zeller, Poeltl, Stewart, Grant, Hollis-Jefferson

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Stokes

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Nnaji, Bey

5. Analysis

Thiero is an older wing prospect who had a notable increase in minutes and usg in his junior year.

Some stat changes:

1. FT% down to 0.69

2. 2P% up to 0.6

3. blk% down, but stl% up

4. ast/tov dropped, but still above 1

5. rim/mid shooting % up

6. dunksmade/40 up

7. ftr up

Overall Thiero appears to be a role player wing prospect with good defensive output (blk%, stl%), decent playmaking (ast% and ast/tov), with good 2P% especially high dunksmade/40 with a questionable 3P shot.

Some of his neighbours include small Cs due to Thiero’s 2P% and dunksmade/40 which exceeds their NCAA production. That’s unlikely to be Thiero’s role in the NBA except for limited small C minutes as he would be more valuable as a wing defender with his measurements and stl%.

1. Hollis-Jefferson’s output in the NBA as a defensive wing with no 3 point shot is likely Thiero’s floor as he has better stl%, ast% and dunksmade/40. This wouldn’t be the most exciting, but RHJ has been a positive rotation player in the NBA, which would be decent for a late first or 2nd round pick where Thiero is projected.

2. I see 2 paths for Thiero to be better than a bench defensive wing. The first is the Jerami Grant path. Grant was a worse NCAA prospect than Thiero in several key areas (stl%, FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100, 2P%, dunksmade/40, mid shooting %). He has been a starting Wing because of his improved 3 point shooting to 0.36. Thiero has more promising 3P markers in the NCAA so if he improves like Grant did, he can be a better version of Grant in the NBA as a better perimeter defender with his higher stl% and better as an offball cutter with a higher dunksmade/40.

3. The second path is the Butler and Randle path and to be 6th man versions of them. Butler and Randle are not great 3 point shooters and operate more in the midrange. For onball players, playmaking out of the mid range area is important in order to set up more efficient scoring areas (3s, dunk, rim, free throws). The mid range player needs to be efficient for the gravity to pull the defenders attention to set up the other shots. Thiero was efficient in the midrange as a junior shooting 0.49, higher NCAA numbers than Butler and Randle. Thiero also had a higher ast% than Randle, while similar to Butler. Thiero’s ast/tov was better than Randle’s, worse than Butler’s, and decent overall at 1.11. Note that Randle was significantly younger than Thiero and Butler while Thiero was younger than Butler. In a 6th man role, Thiero could provide wing defence and be a point wing role in the midrange that Butler and Randle do as starters.

4. And in the unlikely case that Thiero improves his mid range shooting and playmaking as Butler did, he can make the same jump from older, defensive wing prospect to All-NBA. Thiero actually has a number of key advantages to Butler in the NCAA (0.7 years younger, wingspan, stl%, mid shooting, ftr), but the leap that Butler made is remarkable and difficult to project.

5. Thiero’s NBA projection has multiple paths to be successful. This is preferable to a prospect like McNeeley that is a similar SG/wing prospect around the same late first/ second round area. McNeeley is SG size instead of Wing, doesn’t provide defensive stats and is poor for 2P%. McNeeley has 1 path to be successful and that is very efficient 3 point shooting. Thiero has a floor as a defensive wing off the bench with 2 possible paths of value: 1) improve from 3P% like Grant or 2) continue to be efficient from midrange and improve playmaking to be bench versions of Butler or Randle. Having a rotation player floor with starter or 6th man upside makes Thiero more promising than most of the projected late first and second round picks.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Star: Butler, Randle

   1. Butler

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted dunk%

         7. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 0.7 years older

         2. same height with much shorter wingspan

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. ftr

         5. pts/40

         6. unassisted rim/mid%

         7. much lower dunksmade/40

         8. much lower mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT%

         2. much lower pfr

         3. ast/tov

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% up to 0.84

         2. rim rate down, mid rate up

         3. pts/40 up

         4. unassisted 2/3 % up

         5. ast% large increase

         6. ast/tov large increase to 2.69

   2. Randle

      1. similar

         1. FT%

         2. blk%

         3. rim rate

         4. rim/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 2P% and 3P%

         4. stl%

         5. much lower ast/tov

         6. pts/40

         7. 3pa/100

         8. much lower dunksmade/40

         9. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 1.6 years younger

         2. slightly taller with same wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. ftr

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% large increase to 0.33

         2. rim rate down, 3 rate up

         3. orb% large decrease

         4. ftr large drop

         5. ast% up large

         6. blk% down

         7. pts/40 up

         8. ast/tov up to 1.36

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Zeller, Poeltl, Stewart, Grant, Hollis-Jefferson

   1. Zeller

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. 0.4 years younger

         3. pts/40

         4. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. 2P% and 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. stl%

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk%

         5. rim/mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. small C: taller with shorter wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. FT%

         5. blk%

         6. rim rate

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate down, 3 rate up

         2. blk% down

         3. ast/tov up to 1.3

   2. Poeltl

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years younger

         2. ast%

         3. FT%

         4. pts/40

         5. rim/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 3P% and 3pa/100

         2. stl%

         3. ast/tov

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. C size: taller with longer wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. rim rate

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% down to 0.56

         2. rim rate way down and mid rate way up

         3. ftr large drop

         4. ast% down

         5. usg way down

         6. ast/tov up to 1.5

   3. Stewart

      1. similar

         1. 2P% and 3P%

         2. pts/40

         3. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rate

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. stl%

         4. much lower ast/tov at 0.38

         5. 3pa/100

         6. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         7. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. 2 years younger

         2. taller with much longer wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. FT%

         5. much higher blk%

         6. rim rate

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. increased 3P% to 0.34

         2. decreased rim rate and increased 3 rate

         3. increased ast%

         4. ast/tov rose from 0.38 to 1.08

         5. decreased pts/40

   4. Grant

      1. similar

         1. FT%

         2. blk%

         3. ftr

         4. ast/tov

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted rim/dunk %

         7. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 2P% and 3P%

         4. stl%

         5. unassisted mid %

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.8 years younger

         2. same height with longer wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% up to 0.75

         2. 3P% way up to 0.36

         3. rim/mid rate way down and 3 rate way up

         4. orb% and drb% down

   5. Hollis-Jefferson

      1. similar

         1. shorter with longer wingspan

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. blk%

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted mid %

         6. rim/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. 2P%

         3. stl%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim/dunk %

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.6 years younger

         2. bpm

         3. orb%

         4. ftr

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. ftr down large

         2. ast% up

         3. blk% down

         4. ast/tov up to 1.46

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Stokes

   1. similar

      1. bpm

      2. ast%

      3. FT%

      4. blk%

      5. unassisted rim/mid %

      6. dunk shooting %

   2. disadvantages

      1. 2P% and 3P%

      2. stl%

      3. ast/tov

      4. pts/40

      5. no 3s

      6. unassisted dunk %

      7. dunksmade/40

      8. mid shooting %

   3. advantages

      1. 0.7 years younger

      2. taller and longer wingspan

      3. orb%

      4. rim rate

   4. NBA stat changes

      1. only 28 NBA games

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Nnaji, Bey

   1. Nnaji

      1. similar

         1. 2P% and 3P%

         2. blk%

         3. pts/40

         4. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. stl%

         4. much lower ast/tov

         5. 3pa/100

         6. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         7. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. 1.7 years younger

         2. small C size: taller with longer wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. FT%

         5. rim rate

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% down to 0.67

         2. 3P% up to 0.36

         3. rim rate way down, 3 rate way up

         4. orb% and drb% down

         5. usg down

         6. ast/tov up to 1

   2. Bey

      1. similar

         1. orb%

         2. stl%

         3. rim rate

         4. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.3 years older

         2. bpm

         3. ast%

         4. 2P%

         5. negative ast/tov

         6. pts/40

         7. 3pa/100

         8. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         9. dunksmade/40

         10. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. same height and longer wingspan

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. blk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 18 career NBA games