Alex Toohey Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Fringe / Rotation Player
1. Draft Age
21.1 years (65th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Australian NBL league
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 7.75''
Wingspan: 6' 10.75''
NBA Size: big SG or small Wing
3. Team Role
Sydney finished 5th out of 10 in Australian league
Sydney had the best DRtg in Australian league
Strengths
3rd in min/g
5th in pts/g
high stl%
good blk% for SG
usg% = 20% (5th highest on team)
ast/tov = 1.2
low PF/40
Flaws
low 3P% and FT%
eDIF of 3.6 (3rd amongst rotation teammates)
4. Nearest Neighbours
Star: Lamelo
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Sarr, Ferguson, Giddey
Rotation (VORP>=0):
Fringe (VORP<0): Klintman, Travers, Hampton, Rupert, Johnson, Dieng
5. Analysis
The Australian league high lottery picks: Sarr, Lamelo and Giddey are unrealistic outcomes for Toohey, even if Sarr is the closest neighbour by a notable margin. Sarr has big wing or C size and has advantages in orb% and blk%. Lamelo and Giddey are big PGs and much better playmakers (ast%, ast/tov)
The rest of the neighbours are closer role comparables as SG or Wings. None of them have been positive NBA rotation players (many still very early in their careers) so would need to see some advantages for Toohey to project that he can be one, especially since he is much older than all neighbours except Klintman.
Klintman is the closest neighbour at a similar age and slight height and wingspan advantage.
Toohey advantages: ast/tov, stl%, blk%
Klintman advantages: 3P%. FT%
similar: FG%
rookie with only 8 NBA games
Travers: 12 NBA games
Hampton has played 120 NBA games so is a good neighbour to compare
Toohey advantages: orb%, stl%, blk%, shooting (FG/FT/3P),
Hampton advantages: 1.7 years younger, ast%, ast/tov
Hampton has struggled shooting in the NBA with 41%/34%/68% splits. His PG potential hasn’t materialized likely due to his poor shooting, but still has a good ast/tov. Toohey can succeed where Hampton failed with better shooting and defence in the ABL as he isn’t expected to rely on playmaking to provide value
Rupert is early in his career, but and has played 98 NBA games that can be a positive rotation player if he continues to improve
Toohey advantages: orb%, stl%, blk%, shooting (FG/FT/3P),
Rupert advantages: 2 years younger, wing dimensions,
Johnson
Toohey advantages: not PG or small SG size, orb%, stl%, blk%, shooting (FG/FT),
Johnson advantages: 1.5 years younger, ast%
struggled shooting early in career with 39% FG and 27% 3P
Dieng had positive VORP this year in limited minutes, so still can be rotation player
Toohey advantages: orb%, stl%, blk%, shooting (FG/FT/3P), ast/tov
Dieng advantages: 2 years younger, wing dimensions,
Dieng’s stl% and blk% translated from ABL to NBA, which is good for Toohey’s superior stl% and blk%
Dieng’s poor NBA shooting: 42%/29%/73%
Ferguson
Toohey advantages: bigger SG dimensions, orb%, stl%, blk%, shooting (FG/FT), ast%, ast/tov
Ferguson advantages: 2 years younger,
poor NBA shooting: 40%/33%/75%
ast% and orb% dropped in NBA
If Toohey becomes a NBA rotation player it likely is as a 3 and D SG or small wing. He has good stl% and blk%, but lacks the physical tools to guard big wings effectively. Blk% correlates strongly between ABL and NBA (0.95), but stl% has poor correlation (0.38). Toohey has a low PF/40 in the Australian league, which means he was able to be productive on the defensive end without fouling. I think he likely can be a good defensive SG or small Wing in the NBA.
Toohey is about 1.5-2 years older than most of the SG/Wing neighbours and his 3P% and FT% isn’t noticeably better than these neighbours in the ABL, and none have been efficient in the NBA.
Klintman is the best neighbour comparison in terms of age and similar physical tools and roles as defensive SG/Wings. However Klintman was only drafted last year and is unclear whether he can be a rotation player. An older, defensive SG or small wing with questionable shooting isn’t an archetype I am particularly fond of, but with improved shooting, Toohey can be a rotation player.