Asa Newell Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 19.7 years (32nd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 9.00''

• Wingspan: 6' 11.25''

• NBA Size: Wing or small C

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at C

• bpm: 8.4 (61st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • leading scorer (highest pts/40 and usg)

  • high orb%

  • high 2P%

  • good stl%

• Flaws:

  • below average 3P%

  • below average blk% for C

  • dunk shooting % only 0.89

  • negative ast/tov ratio

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 22 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 14.75

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 18 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 12 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 12 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 17 of 30

  • Overall:

    • moderately distant neighbours

    • average production in NBA

1. Star: Markkanen

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hunter, Hachimura

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Kennard, Dekker, Portis, Adams, Bagley, Patterson

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Smith

5. Analysis

Newell is in the dreaded wing/small C size that makes it difficult to be a starter unless he can shoot and defend like a wing as he doesn’t have the size or shot blocking to be a traditional C.

1. His closest neighbour is Markkanen, a star PF, but Newell had worse shooting NCAA shooting metrics.

2. Newell has several neighbours with similar NCAA output and in the backup NBA PF or occasional starter role: Hunter, Dekker, Portis, Hachimura which have had varying levels of success due to their 3P%

3. Newell has a safe floor as a backup PF with a starting role possible if the 3P% is reliable. Any upside to be a star is unlikely with his profile.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Star: Markkanen

   1. Markkanen

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years older

         2. ast% and tov%

         3. negative ast/tov

         4. pts/40

         5. Unassisted rim %, mid %,

      2. disadvantages

         1. no combine data: likely shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. plays PF and not C

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. rim_rate

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim finishing %, dunk finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100

         2. pfr: lower risk of fouling out

         3. self creation: unassisted dunk %

         4. mid finishing %,

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate

         2. decreased orb%

         3. increased ast% and decreased to%

         4. increased ast/tov: positive in NBA

         5. increased pts/40

         6. more offball: decreased unassisted 2%

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hunter, Hachimura

   1. Hunter

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. no combine data, wing sized

         3. 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid%

      2. disadvantage

         1. 1.8 years older

         2. orb%

         3. 2P%

         4. blk% stl%

         5. ast/tov

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim/dunk shooting %

      3. advantage

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. 3P%

         3. unassisted rim, dunk %

         4. mid shooting %

      4. Hunter NBA changes

         1. negative VORP for career: now 6th man/fringe starter

         2. increased 3 rate, decreased rim rate

         3. decreased role player stats: orb%, ast%, stl%, blk%

   2. Hachimura

      1. similar

         1. no combine data, likely wing size

         2. FT%, 2P%

         3. stl%

         4. ast/tov

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted mid %

         7. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. 1.7 years older

         3. orb%

         4. blk%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim/dunk %

         7. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. 3P%

         3. pts/40

         4. mid/dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate decreased, 3 rate increased

         2. more offball: decreased usg

         3. ast/tov increased and now 1.44

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Kennard, Dekker, Portis, Adams, Bagley, Patterson

   1. Kennard

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. ftr

         3. pts/40

      2. disadvantage

         1. 1.3 years older

         2. SG size

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. FT%

         6. stl% and blk%

         7. rim rate and rim shooting %

         8. dunksmade/40

      3. advantage

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100

         3. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk%

         4. mid shooting %

      4. Kennard NBA changes

         1. 3 rate increased

         2. more offball: unassisted 2% decreased

   2. Dekker

      1. similar

         1. 2P%, FT%, 3P%

         2. rim rate

         3. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantage

         1. 1.4 years older

         2. shorter with similar wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. blk% stl%

         5. ftr

         6. pts/40

         7. dunksmade/40

      3. advantage

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. 3pa/100

         3. rim rate

         4. unassisted mid/3/dunk %

      4. Dekker NBA changes

         1. 3P% dropped significantly

   3. Portis

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.6 years older

         3. orb%

         4. stl%

         5. ast/tov

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted rim/dunk %

         9. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 2P%

         2. 3pa/100

         3. unassisted mid %

         4. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. same height with longer wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. 3P%

         4. blk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 6th man big

         2. 3P% dropped, but still good at 38%

         3. orb% and blk% dropped

   4. Adams

      1. similar

         1. 0.2 years older

         2. unassisted rim %

         3. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size

         2. orb%

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted mid/dunk%

         7. dunksmade/40 of 0

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. FT%

         4. stl% and 3pa/100

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. played only 32 NBA games

   5. Bagley

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years younger

         2. bpm

         3. no combine data

         4. orb%

         5. 2P%

         6. ast/tov

         7. rim/mid/dunk rate

         8. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. FT%

         2. 3pa/100

         3. blk%, stl%

         4. rim and mid finishing %

         5. unassisted rim and mid %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. 3P%

         3. dunksmade/40

         4. mid/dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. mid rate increased and rim rate decreased

         2. ast% decreased

         3. ast/tov increased (still negative at 0.82)

         4. 3P% huge decrease to 0.29

   6. Patterson

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. shorter, but longer wingspan

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.6 years older

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. FT%

         5. stl%

         6. pts/40

         7. 3pa/100

         8. rim rate

         9. unassisted rim/mid/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. 3P%

         2. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate

         2. increased 3 rate

         3. decreased orb%

         4. decreased blk%

         5. ast/tov rose to 1.67

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Smith

   1. Smith

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.7 years younger

         3. FT%

         4. dunksmade/40 and dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. 2P%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid%

         6. rim finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. SG size

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. 3P%

         5. rim rate

         6. mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. only 13 NBA games as serious allergy affected start of career