Bogoljub Marković Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Wing Starter
1. Draft Age
19.9 years (38th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Adriatic-League-Liga-ABA league
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 10.50''
Wingspan: 6' 11.50''
NBA Size: Tall Wing / Small C
3. Team Role
KK Mega Basket finished 8 out of 16 in Adriatic league
Strengths
3rd highest pts/g on team
usg = 21.8%
highest min/g on team
highest eDIF (net rating) on team
efficient from FG% and 3P%
FT decent at 76%
good orb% and blk% for wing
ast/tov at 1
highest FTA/g on team
Flaws
stl% below average for wing
4. Nearest Neighbours
Star: Jokic
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Jovic
Rotation (VORP>=0): Saric, Bolden
Fringe (VORP<0): Cancar, Simonovic, Matkovic, Lauvergne, Musa, Luwawu
5. Analysis
It was surprising that Nikola Jokic, not Jovic was one of the nearest neighbours to Markovic. Jovic actually ranked outside the top 10 neighbours from the Adriatic league despite being similar archetypes of a tall wing with similar heights and wingspans. Part of the reason is Markovic’s efficiency from FG% is much higher than the Adriatic wing neighbours. FG% in a small sample size has a decent correlation of 0.65 between the Adriatic league and the NBA, which bodes well for Markovic’s NBA 2P% efficiency.
Markovic was very efficient from FG% and 2P%, even more than Jokic, the future MVP centre, while being only 0.6 years older and without Jokic’s physical tools. Note 2014 is the year Jokic was drafted in the 2nd round. The following year he would win Adriatic MVP in 2015 and then in 2016 entered the NBA with the Nuggets. The glimpses of Jokic’s playmaking was evident in 2014 with a very good ast/tov ratio, especially for a centre. Markovic doesn’t have Jokic’s physical tools and has a neutral ast/tov ratio so isn’t likely to become a dominant playmaking C in the NBA. However he has other paths to be a NBA starter and rotation player.
The 2 occasional NBA starters: Jovic (52% of games) and Saric (47% of games) are closer to Markovic in size and likely NBA role. Jovic impressively as a 27th pick has a positive VORP even when starting most of his NBA games 3 years into his career. Markovic has notable advantages over Jovic (orb%, stl%, blk%, fg%, ft%, 3P%) which would be valuable as an offball wing. Jovic is younger by 0.9 years and has a slight ast/tov ratio advantage. Jovic’s shooting % improved in the NBA to 45%/37%/80%, which is a good sign for Markovic maintaining or even potentially improving his good shooting %. I would consider Jovic to be Markovic’s floor and since he has numerous advantages over him, Markovic should be picked earlier than the 27th pick.
Saric has had a very solid career as an occasional starter or rotation player. Saric had some notable advantages over Markovic in orb%, ast%, and stl%. Markovic has the shooting advantage from every area over Saric. Saric improved his 3P% and FT% in the NBA to 36% and 84% which is another good sign for Markovic’ shooting efficiency. A NBA Saric with potentially worse defence and role player production is a reasonable outcome for Markovic.
The 3 recent fringe wings are Cancar, Musa and Samanic. Markovic has a number of advantages over all of them: orb%, ast%, blk%. Markovic is much more efficient from 2P% than all 3. Cancar and Musa were 2nd round picks, while Samanic was the 19th pick in the draft with similar age and physical tools to Markovic. Samanic only played 15.8 min/g compared to Markovic’s 29.4 min/g so they did not have the same team roles in the Adriatic league. Markovic’s sizeable Adriatic league shooting advantage from FG%/FT%/3P% makes it unlikely that he would struggle in the NBA as Samanic (25% from 3).
Markovic’s wing dimensions and elite efficiency in the Adriatic league along with solid wing production (orb%, ast/tov) as a key player on his team lead me to conclude that he can do the same in the NBA. This is strengthened from Jovic’s success early in his career as a NBA starter with less impressive production in the same league. Saric is another good comparison with less role player production in the Adriatic league, but better scoring efficiency. Jokic is obviously the great surprise from the Adriatic league as a 2nd round pick multiple NBA MVP and is an unlikely projection for any prospect. Markovic was more efficient in the Adriatic league than all 3 of these players and they have improved their efficiency in the NBA so I suspect Markovic will be an offensively efficient offball wing with potentially questionable defence.