Carter Bryant Draft Analysis

NBA projection: Starter

Drew

May 29, 2025

19.6 years (28th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

Height without shoes: 6' 6.50''
Wingspan: 6' 11.75''
NBA Size: small Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

NCAA Bench Wing (7th highest Min_per)
bpm: 9.2 (73rd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths:
- above average 2P% and 3P%
- very good blk% and stl% for Wing
- very high rim finishing %
- good 3pa/100
Flaws:
- very low minutes amongst lottery prospects
- very low usage (9th highest on team)
- orb% only average despite wing size
- below average FT%
- below average mid finishing %
- low pts/40
- very low unassisted rim and 3%
- high pfr (personal foul rate)

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
- KNN Dist: 8 of 30
- Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Sum: 28.25
  - NBA_Start% Rank: 29 of 30
  - BPM Rank: 29 of 30
  - WS/YEAR Rank: 27 of 30
  - VORP/YEAR Rank: 28 of 30
- Overall:
  - close neighbours
  - very low production in NBA

Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hendricks, Anunoby
Rotation (VORP>=0): Braun
Fringe (VORP<0): Lydon, Brown, Ingram, Woodard, Furphy, Henry, Strawther

5. Analysis

Bryant had a very low usage role as a bench player in Arizona that needs to scale his minutes up significantly in order to be the NBA coveted 3 and D starting wing.

His defensive rate stats (stl% and blk%) are fantastic, but this is in limited minutes, averaging less than 20 minutes/game. He had a very high pfr (personal foul rate) of 4.8, much higher than any of his neighbours. This questions the scalability of his defensive stats to starter minutes as 1) he might be in foul trouble and 2) he accumulated great defensive stats because he could be hyper aggressive on defence knowing he was playing limited minutes. To be a starting defensive 3 and D wing, he needs to be able to scale the production while decreasing the foul rate.

Bryant’s most efficient shooting location is at the rim at 0.77, really high for a wing. But he also had by the lowest rim rate and unassisted rim % amongst the neighbours, so this high finishing % isn’t utilized enough. The rim rate of all his neighbours dropped significantly in the NBA, so Bryant’s high % might be utilized even less.

The other main avenue of Bryant’s scoring is from 3P% which was good in the NCAA. However he shot only 69% from the FT line, so the 3P% is not as certain especially since 3P% had a low correlation from NCAA to NBA of 0.326.

In terms of the neighbours, the majority are still very early in their careers or already out of the NBA. The best case is OG Anunoby. OG would be a slam-dunk outcome for Bryant as the quintessential 3 and D role playing starting wing. But Bryant is not quite the same level of NCAA prospect. OG has a sizeable wingspan advantage, higher orb% and significantly higher 2P%. The higher 2P% is due to the much higher dunksmade/40 (valuable for offball wings cutting to the basket or attacking closeouts) and almost double the rim rate with double the unassisted rim rate. OG simply got to the rim more and requiring less assistance from teammates and was able to dunk more often. OG and Bryant had similar stl% and blk%, but OG played more minutes and had a significantly lower pfr. OG had lower FT% and 3P%, but was able to shoot more efficiently in the NBA. It’s unlikely Bryant reaches the level of OG.
Hendricks is a good comparable as a similarly sized wing prospect selected in the lottery. He’s a taller and a better shot blocker, but Bryant had better steal rates. Hendricks had less than half the pfr of Bryant so the question of scalability is a concern. Hendricks was promising as a 3 and D starter before he had a severe injury in his 2nd year so his ultimate NBA production is still a question mark, but I would consider Bryant slightly worse than Hendricks as a NCAA prospect.
Braun is the last productive neighbour that was a bench player until this year as the starting SG. Bryant has a youth and significant wingspan advantage on Braun as he is wing sized. Bryant has the defensive stats advantage with similar production in orb%, FT% and 3P%. I would consider Bryant a level above Braun as a NCAA prospect, but Braun gets to start next to Jokic, the ultimate cheat code for any role player.

Bryant is a worthy gamble to be a 3 and D starter as he is young, has the physical tools and the defensive production, albeit in a bench role. The NBA 3 is not guaranteed to be there and he can revert to a bench or fringe role like some of his neighbours.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Wing Starter

Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hendricks, Anunoby
1. Hendricks
  1. similar
    1. age
    2. ast%
    3. 3P%
    4. blk%
    5. ast/tov
    6. 3pa/100
  2. disadvantages
    1. bpm
    2. 2P%
    3. stl%
    4. pfr
    5. unassisted mid %
    6. rim shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. taller with similar wingspan
    2. orb%
    3. FT%
    4. pts/40
    5. rim rate
    6. unassisted rim/dunk %
    7. dunksmade/40
    8. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased and 3 rate increased
    2. rebounding increased
    3. ast % decreased
    4. usg decreased
2. Anunoby
  1. similar
    1. bpm
    2. 0.3 years older
    3. blk% and stl%
    4. ast/tov
    5. rim shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. FT% and 3P%
    2. 3pa/100
    3. unassisted mid%
  3. advantages
    1. similar height with longer wingspan
    2. orb%
    3. ast%
    4. much higher 2P%
    5. much lower pfr
    6. pts/40
    7. much higher rim rate
    8. much higher unassisted rim/dunk%
    9. much higher dunksmade/40
    10. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 3P% rose to 0.38
    2. rim rate decreased and 3 rate increased
    3. rebounding decreased
    4. ast% decreased
    5. at/tov rose to 1.31
Rotation (VORP>=0): Braun
1. Braun
  1. similar
    1. bpm
    2. orb%
    3. FT% and 3P%
    4. dunksmade/40
  2. disadvantages
    1. 1.6 years older
    2. SG size: much shorter wingspan
    3. 2P%
    4. blk% and stl%
    5. rim shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. ast% and ast/tov
    2. much lower pfr
    3. much higher rim rate
    4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %
    5. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. decreased rim rate
    2. large decrease ast%
    3. decreased usg
    4. ast/tov large increase to 2.43
Fringe (VORP<0): Lydon, Brown, Ingram, Woodard, Furphy, Henry, Strawther
1. Lydon
  1. similar
    1. most statistically similar
    2. 3P%
    3. pts/40
    4. mid shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. bpm
    2. 1.6 years older
    3. 2P%
    4. blk% and stl%
    5. 3pa/100
    6. unassisted mid%
    7. dunksmade/40
    8. mid shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. slightly taller with similar wingspan
    2. orb%
    3. ast% and ast/tov
    4. FT%
    5. rim rate
    6. unassisted rim and dunk%
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 26 career NBA games
2. Brown
  1. similar
    1. 0.5 years younger
    2. similar height and wingspan
    3. FT%
    4. rim and mid shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. bpm
    2. 3P%
    3. blk% and stl%
    4. 3pa/100
    5. unassisted mid %
  3. advantages
    1. orb%
    2. ast%
    3. 2P%
    4. lower pfr
    5. pts/40
    6. much higher rim rate
    7. unassisted rim %
    8. dunksmade/40
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. hasn’t made a NBA 3 yet
    2. decreased rim rate, increased mid rate
    3. decreased rebounding
    4. decreased ast%
    5. decreased usg
    6. ast/tov rose to 2
3. Ingram
  1. similar
    1. bpm
    2. 3P%
    3. stl%
    4. pts/40
    5. 3pa/100
  2. disadvantages
    1. 2 years older
    2. shorter with similar wingspan
    3. much lower 2P%
    4. blk%
    5. much lower dunksmade/40
    6. much lower rim shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. orb%
    2. ast%
    3. lower pfr
    4. ast/tov
    5. rim rate
    6. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %
    7. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. rookie with 5 career NBA games
4. Woodard
  1. similar
    1. shorter with longer wingspan
    2. ast%
    3. pts/40
    4. dunksmade/40
  2. disadvantages
    1. 1.1 years older
    2. bpm
    3. FT% 2P%
    4. blk% stl%
    5. ast/tov
    6. 3pa/100
    7. unassisted mid %
    8. rim finishing %
  3. advantages
    1. orb%
    2. 3P%
    3. pfr
    4. rim rate
    5. unassisted rim and dunk %
    6. mid finishing %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 25 career NBA games
5. Furphy
  1. similar
    1. 0.1 years younger
    2. 3P%
    3. pts/40
    4. 3pa/100
    5. rim shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. bpm
    2. similar height with shorter wingspan
    3. ast%
    4. blk% and stl%
    5. shot creation: unassisted rim%
    6. dunksmade/40
    7. mid shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. 2P% and FT%
    2. orb%
    3. ast/tov
    4. rim rate
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. rookie SG with 50 NBA games
    2. 3P% dropped to 0.3
6. Henry
  1. similar
    1. bpm
    2. 0.3 younger
    3. orb%
    4. stl%
    5. rim rate
    6. mid finishing %
  2. disadvantages
    1. shorter with similar wingspan
    2. much higher 2P%
    3. blk%
    4. ast/tov
    5. dunksmade/40
    6. rim finishing %
  3. advantages
    1. ast%
    2. FT% and 3P%
    3. pfr
    4. pts/40
    5. 3pa/100
    6. unassisted rim %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 3P dropped to 0.33
7. Strawther
  1. similar
    1. ast/tov
    2. rim rate
  2. disadvantages
    1. bpm
    2. 1.6 years older
    3. shorter wingspan
    4. orb%
    5. ast%
    6. 2P%
    7. blk% stl%
    8. unassisted mid/dunk %
    9. dunksmade/40
    10. rim finishing %
  3. advantages
    1. FT% and 3P%
    2. pfr
    3. pts/40
    4. 3pa/100
    5. unassisted rim/3 %
    6. mid finishing %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 3P% dropped to 0.33
    2. ast% rose
    3. ast/tov rose to 1.57

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