Cedric Coward Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 21.8 years (77th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Senior

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 5.25''

• Wingspan: 7' 2.25''

• NBA Size: Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at Wing

• bpm: 8.1 (55th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths

• Flaws

  • only played 6 NCAA games and only 1 vs top 100 opposition

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 30 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Sum: 22

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 21 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 19 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 22 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 26 of 30

  • Overall:

    • most distant neighbours (30 of 30)

    • below average production in NBA

Here’s 2024 Coward’s 10 Nearest Neighbours where he played 30 NCAA games as a 20.8 year old sophomore. This will be used instead for comparison instead as Coward only played 6 NCAA games as a 21.8 junior with only 1 game against top 100 competition.

1. Rotation (VORP>=0): Beasley, Lamb, Robinson

2. Fringe (VORP<0): Edwards, Strawther, Nader, Sheppard, Christie, Woodard, Branham

5. Analysis

Coward has a really long wingspan with respect to his height and has small Wing. He only played 6 NCAA games as a senior in 2025, with only 1 of those against top 100 competition. Fortunately he played several games earlier in his NCAA career, which can be analyzed instead.

From his sophomore to junior seasons, Coward had a large drop in bpm. He played more minutes with more usg as a junior.

Notable changes:

1. FT% large increase

2. 2P% large decrease

3. stl% down, but blk up

4. ast/tov large decrease by more than 3x to a negative ast/tov

5. rim% drop

6. mid% up (and very high for both years at over 50%)

7. 3pa/100 large increase

8. more shot creation: unassisted mid/3/dunk %

Coward changed his role to shoot more 3s as a sophomore. The large decrease to a negative ast/tov on higher minutes and usg indicates that he likely won’t have an onball role in the NBA.

2024 Coward did not neighbours at star or starter level, only rotation and fringe.

Note Coward is 1 year older now, with unknown changes to his game, but the 2024 Coward played more like a SG than a Wing despite his wingspan. He did have a orb% and blk% that is higher than most SGs, but his stl% was very similar. Notably his dunksmade/40 is low for a wing and lower than some SGs with much shorter wingspans. Dunks are the most efficient shots in basketball and will be beneficial for a offball SGs able to either cut to the rim and dunk or have the shot creation to create the dunk opportunity themselves.

Coward did have notably better 2P% and especially rim shooting % than the other SGs where he made better use of his long wingspan. His junior 3P% and FT% were very good, but only shot 73% FT% as a sophomore so he may not be the elite shooter the junior numbers indicate especially since 3P% is also one of the lowest correlated stats from NCAA to NBA.

Beasley and Lamb are the 2 best neighbours and have been primarily in a 6th man or bench role. 2024 Coward was already older than both and 2025 Coward is now significantly older. Coward does have the length advantage of a wing so it mitigates that somewhat. All 3 had around the same negative ast/tov in the NCAA, but Beasley and Lamb were both able to significantly increase it to 1.75 and 2 respectively, which would serve Coward well. Coward already had a high ast/tov as a sophomore, so it’s possible Coward can’t scale his playmaking in a starting, higher usage role and is better as a rotation player. Still even as an older, offball 3 point specialist role, Coward can be a solid rotation player with potential defensive wing upside.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Rotation (VORP>=0): Beasley, Lamb, Robinson

   1. Beasley

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical neighbour

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 3P%

         5. stl%

         6. pts/40

         7. 3pa/100

         8. ftr

         9. unassisted dunk%

         10. dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size, much shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. FT% and 2P%

         3. blk%

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted 3%

      3. advantages

         1. 1.2 years younger

         2. bpm

         3. ast/tov (still negative)

         4. unassisted rim/mid%

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim/mid shooting %

      4. Beasley NBA changes

         1. 3 rate increased

         2. FT%

         3. ast/tov

   2. Lamb

      1. similar

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. dunksmade/40

         3. 3%

         4. ftr

         5. pts/40

         6. unassisted mid/3%

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. FT% and 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. ftr

         6. rim rate

         7. mid shooting %

         8. unassisted rim/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. younger by 0.8 years

         2. bpm

         3. stl%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. ast/tov improved significantly from 0.85 => 2

   3. Robinson III

      1. similar

         1. older by 0.4 years

         2. orb%

         3. unassisted rim %

         4. dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. same height with shorter wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%, FT% and 3P%

         4. blk%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

         8. mid shooting %

         9. unassisted 3/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast/tov

         3. stl%

         4. ftr

         5. unassisted mid%

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% up to 0.37

         2. rim rate down

         3. ast/tov up to 1.6

2. Fringe (VORP<0): Edwards, Strawther, Nader, Sheppard, Christie, Woodard, Branham

   1. Edwards

      1. similar

         1. taller with shorter wingspan

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. ast/tov

         5. pts/40

         6. 3pa/100

         7. unassisted rim/mid%

         8. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.1 years older

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 2P%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted 3/dunk%

         7. rim/mid shooting%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. mid rate down, 3 rate up

         2. unassisted 2% down

         3. blk% down

         4. usg down

         5. ast/tov up to 1.5

   2. Strawther

      1. similar

         1. stl%

         2. pts/40

         3. unassisted mid/3 %

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size: taller with much shorter wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 2P% and FT%

         5. blk%

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted dunk %

         8. rim/mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.4 years younger

         2. bpm

         3. 3P%

         4. ast/tov

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim %

         7. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.33

         2. ast% rose

         3. ast/tov rose to 1.57

   3. Nader

      1. similar

         1. 3P% and 3pa/100

         2. stl%

         3. ast/tov

         4. rim shooting%

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.9 years older

         2. no combine

         3. orb%

         4. ast%

         5. FT% and 2P%

         6. blk%

         7. pts/40

         8. rim rate

         9. unassisted 3/dunk%

         10. mid shooting%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. unassisted rim/mid%

         3. dunksmade/40

   4. Sheppard

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 3P%

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.1 years older

         2. SG size: much shorter wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. FT% and 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. rim rate

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim/mid shooting%

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. stl%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% down to 0.33

         2. rim/mid rate down, 3 rate up

         3. unassisted 2/3% down

         4. ast% way down

         5. usg way down

         6. ast/tov large increase to 4

   5. Christie

      1. similar

         1. 3P%

         2. stl%

         3. unassisted dunk %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. FT% and 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted mid %

         9. dunksmade/40

         10. rim/mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 1.9 years younger

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted rim/3 %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 13 career NBA games

   6. Woodard

      1. similar

         1. 0.1 years younger

         2. height and wingspan

         3. blk%

         4. ast/tov

         5. unassisted rim and dunk %

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT% 2P%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted mid %

         7. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. 3P%

         4. stl%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 25 career NBA games

   7. Branham

      1. similar

         1. stl%

         2. rim shooting%

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. FT% and 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted 3%

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. mid shooting%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. younger by 1.7 years

         3. ast% and ast/tov

         4. 3P%

         5. pts/40

         6. unassisted rim/mid/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 34%

         2. 3 rate increased

         3. orb% decreased

         4. ast% decreased

         5. ast/tov increased