Collin Murray-Boyles Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Starter with Small Star Potential

1. Draft Age

• 20 years (41st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Sophomore

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 6.50''

• Wingspan: 7' 0.75''

• NBA Size: Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at C/PF

• bpm: 11.1 (90th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • leading scorer (highest usg and pts/40)

  • high bpm

  • 2nd highest ast%

  • above average 2P%

  • above average stl% and blk%

  • ast/tov = 1

  • above average rim/mid shooting %

• Flaws:

  • below average 3P%

  • below average dunk shooting %

  • average dunksmade/40

  • below average unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 20 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 5

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 7 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 6 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 3 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 4 of 30

  • Overall:

    • moderately distant neighbours

    • very high production in NBA

1. Star: Mobley

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Carter, Washington, Morris, Monroe, Fields

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Williams, LaRavia, Stokes

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Liddell

5. Analysis

While CMB played C in the NCAA, he is one of the best defensive wing prospects in the draft. And he was one last year as a 19 year old freshman as well.

CMB had a 10.1 bpm as a 19 year old freshman wing and improved as a sophomore in several areas:

1. He increased his usg as he became the main scorer rather than a complementary player while increasing his overall efficiency (TS%).

2. He increased his ast%, although his ast/tov dropped to a still respectable 0.99.

3. He maintained his blk% and stl% despite a larger offensive role.

4. His FT% and 3P% increased, although they still need to continue to increase in the NBA.

5. He increased his shot creation skills (unassisted rim/mid/dunk%).

6. He maintained his high rim_rate while shooting an above average rim%.

CMB’s height and size means that he will have to be a Wing PF starter rather than a C starter in the NBA. He compares well to some of his neighbours that are successful starting and rotation PFs.

1. Mobley as a starting PF next to a traditional C is the reigning defensive player of the year. He didn’t attend the combine, but is C size: taller with a longer wingspan.

2. CMB as the same age as Mobley and had similar stats in several important areas: rebounding, shooting, playmaking, and shot creation. CMB had key advantages in:

   stl% and ast%. CMB disadvantages due to size: blk%, dunksmade/40, rim and dunk finishing%.

3. The main big advantage for the C size players (Mobley as well as Carter) is the blk%, but if CMB starts as a Wing PF next to a C (like Mobley with Allen), rim protection becomes less necessary than perimeter defence. And this is where CMB shines with by far the highest stl% in this neighbour group.

4. For CMB to be a Wing starter rather than a bench Wing, he needs to improve his 3P% unless he lucks out next to a unicorn stretch 5 that can block shots. His shooting markers are comparable in several areas such as FT% and 3pa/100.

5. A smaller Mobley as a star defensive role playing Wing would be an outstanding yet achievable result for CMB. Even if he doesn’t reach that level, a role similar to Washington or a longer Williams is a realistic projection.

6. CMB is an example of an ideal tweener provided he can shoot 3s well enough. He has the defensive versatility of a wing with a really high stl% and can playmake with a high ast% and positive ast/tov. He can score inside, rebound and provide some rim protection like a C. He has a high 2P% because he has a very high rim rate with above average rim shooting %.

7. If CMB is drafted in the late lottery or later as projected, he can be a draft steal.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Starter with Small Star Potential

Appendix:

1. Star: Mobley

   1. Mobley

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. orb%

         3. FT%, 2P%, 3P%

         4. ftr

         5. ast/tov

         6. 3pa/100

         7. unassisted rim %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. stl%

         3. pts/40

         4. much higher rim rate

         5. unassisted mid %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. no combine: C size, taller and longer wingspan

         3. blk%

         4. pfr

         5. unassisted dunk %

         6. much higher dunksmade/40

         7. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. starts at PF next to traditional C, Allen

         2. 3P% rose to 0.32, but shot 37% last 2 years

         3. decreased rim rate

         4. decreased blk% to 4.3%

         5. ast/tov rose to 1.53

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Carter, Washington, Morris, Monroe, Fields

   1. Carter

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. FT% and 2P%

         3. stl%

         4. ast/tov

         5. pts/40

         6. 3pa/100

         7. unassisted dunk%

         8. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. stl%

         3. higher pfr

         4. rim rate

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid %

         6. rim and mid finishing%

      3. advantages

         1. small C: taller with much longer wingspan

         2. 0.8 years younger

         3. orb%

         4. large 3P% advantage and higher 3pa/100

         5. much higher blk%

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.32

         2. decreased blk% to 2.5%

         3. decreased ast%

         4. ast/tov rose to 1.33

   2. Washington

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.8 years older

         3. blk%

         4. 2P%

         5. pfr

         6. ast/tov

         7. pts/40

         8. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         9. dunksmade/40

         10. dunk finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT% and 2P%

         3. stl%

         4. ftr

         5. rim rate and rim shooting %

         6. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

      3. advantages

         1. same height with longer wingpsan

         2. orb%

         3. 3P% and 3pa/100

         4. mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3 rate increased, shooting respectable 36%

         2. rebounding decreased

         3. ast% decreased

         4. ast/tov increased to 1.44

         5. blk% decreased to 2.9%

   3. Morris

      1. similar

         1. FT%, 2P%

         2. ast/tov

         3. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. 1.8 years older

         3. similar height and shorter wingspan

         4. ast%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. rim rate

         7. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. 3P%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% rose to 0.38

         2. increased 3 rate

         3. decreased rebounding and ast%

         4. ast/tov rose to 1.36

   4. Monroe

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 3P%

         5. blk%

         6. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rates

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. tov%

         3. FT%, 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. pts/40

         6. 3pa/100

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim and mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. small C: taller with longer wingspan

         2. ast/tov

         3. unassisted rim/mid %

         4. dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped heavily to only 0.06

         2. 3 rate increased

         3. ast% dropped by 9%

         4. blk% dropped by 3.2% to 1.7%

   5. Fields

      1. similar

         1. no combine

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. FT%

         5. stl%

         6. ast/tov

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. 2 years older

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. pfr

         2. pts/40

         3. 3pa/100

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased ast%

         2. large usg decrease

         3. ast/tov rose to 1.45

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Williams, LaRavia, Stokes

   1. Williams

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.5 years older

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. stl%

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted rim/mid %

         6. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. FT%, 3P%

         2. blk%

         3. ast/tov

         4. pts/40

         5. mid/dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% rose to 38%, 3 rate large increase

         2. large usg decrease

         3. rebounding decreased

         4. ast% decreased

         5. blk% decreased

   2. LaRavia

      1. similar

         1. 0.6 years older

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size: same height with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. blk%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P% and 3pa/100

         2. ast/tov

         3. unassisted mid%

         4. mid/dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate decreased, 3 rate increased

         2. ast% decreased

         3. blk%, stl% decreased

   3. Stokes

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years older

         2. same height and longer wingspan

         3. FT%

         4. ast/tov

         5. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. no 3s

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. unassisted rim %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. only 28 NBA games

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Liddell

   1. Liddell

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. height and wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. ast/tov

         5. unassisted rim %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.5 years older

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. much lower rim rate

         6. unassisted dunk %

         7. much lower dunksmade/40

         8. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P%

         2. blk%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid %

         6. mid/dunk shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. serious injury before career started

         2. only 20 NBA games so far