Drake Powell Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Fringe

1. Draft Age

• 19.8 years (35th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 5.25''

• Wingspan: 7' 0.00''

• NBA Size: Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA 6th Man / Starter at Wing

• bpm: 6.3 (32nd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths

  • above average 2P% and 3P%

  • above average blk%

  • good ast/tov

• Flaws

  • very low usg and pts/40 (lowest on team)

  • low orb% for wing

  • low ast%

  • low FT%

  • below average stl%

  • low ftr

  • low dunk shooting %

  • below average 3pa/100

  • below average dunksmade/40

  • below average unassisted rim/dunk%

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 21 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Sum: 27.5

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 23 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 28 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 29 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 30 of 30

  • Overall:

    • moderately distant neighbours

    • very low production in NBA

1. Star: Lavine

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Dick, Trent

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Robinson

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Woodard, Christie, Primo, Houstan, Howard, Walker

5. Analysis

Powell is a young, Wing-sized prospect which is one of the most coveted archetypes in the NBA. Unfortunately Powell plays more like a SG without the 3 point shooting of the position.

I would expect a wing sized prospect to have neighbours that are wings, but all of Powell’s neighbours are SGs. Powell is the only prospect with a 7 foot wingspan, but he does not utilize it to great effect. Many of the stats that favour wings, Powell doesn’t do better and in some cases worse than the SGs. These include orb%, stl%, and dunksmade/40. This indicates that Powell defends more similarly to SGs than wings, which is an issue as he does not shoot like other SGs. Powell’s 3P% is decent at 0.37, but he was a very low usage player (the lowest on UNC), and has a much lower 3pa/100 than the SGs on this list (Lavine, Dick, Trent, Howard).

Powell is going to need to drastically change his role in the NBA. He has wing dimensions so ideally he would change his game to play more like the low usage, defensive wings that are coveted by NBA teams. However if continues to play like a SG on defence, he needs to be as good on offence as NBA SGs, which he hasn’t shown in the NCAA. Powell has potential, but is a gamble.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Fringe

Appendix:

1. Star: Lavine

   1. Lavine

      1. similar

         1. 0.5 years younger

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. ast/tov

         4. rim rate

         5. dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. blk%

         5. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. stl%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% up to 0.83

         2. unassisted 3% up

         3. ast% and usg way up

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Dick, Trent

   1. Dick

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.2 years younger

         3. orb%

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size: taller with much shorter wingspan

         2. 2P% and 3P%

         3. blk%

         4. ast/tov

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted rim/mid %

         7. rim/mid shooting%

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT%

         3. stl%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. dunk shooting%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% down to 0.36

         2. rim rate down, mid rate up

         3. unassisted 2/3% down

         4. drb% and orb% down

         5. ast% down

         6. stl% down

   2. Trent

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.4 years younger

         3. orb%

         4. ast%

         5. 3P%

         6. unassisted rim/mid%

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. 2P%

         3. blk%

         4. ast/tov

         5. rim rate

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim/mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT%

         2. stl%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. ast/tov up to 2

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Robinson

   1. Robinson

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         8. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 0.6 years

         2. same height and shorter wingspan

         3. 3P%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. rim/dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. FT%

         3. pts/40

         4. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% up to 0.37

         2. rim rate down, 3 rate up

         3. ast/tov up to 1.6

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Woodard, Christie, Primo, Houstan, Howard, Walker

   1. Woodard

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. FT%

         3. rim rate

         4. unassisted rim %

         5. rim/mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 0.9 years older

         2. bpm

         3. 2P%

         4. ast/tov

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted mid %

      3. advantages

         1. same height with longer wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. blk% stl%

         4. 3P%

         5. pts/40

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted dunk %

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 25 career NBA games

   2. Christie

      1. similar

         1. 3P%

         2. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted mid %

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.9 years younger

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. FT%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim/3/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 13 career NBA games

   3. Primo

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. 3P%

         3. rim rate

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size: shorter and smaller wingspan

         3. 2P%

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. negative ast/tov

         6. unassisted mid%

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim/mid shooting%

      3. advantages

         1. 1.3 years younger

         2. orb%

         3. FT%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% down to 0.3

         2. rim rate down

         3. ast% up

         4. ast/tov up to 1.38

   4. Houstan

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years younger

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 3P%

         5. stl%

         6. pts/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. no combine: likely SG and smaller

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. negative ast/tov

         6. rim rate

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim/mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT%

         2. 3pa/100

         3. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate down, 3 rate up

         2. ast/tov up to 2

   5. Howard

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. identical orb% and drb%

         3. 3P%

         4. ast/tov

         5. mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. no combine: likely SG sized

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. rim rate

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim finishing

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. pts/40

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/3/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% dropped

         2. orb% increased

         3. ast% decreased

         4. 3P% dropped to 0.29

   6. Walker

      1. similar

         1. 0.3 years younger

         2. 3P%

         3. ast/tov

         4. rim rate

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size: shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. rim/mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT%

         3. stl%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. shot creation: unassisted rim/3/dunk%

         7. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate down, mid rate up

         2. unassisted 2/3 % down