Dylan Harper Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Starter with Moderate Star Potential

Drew

May 25, 2025

19.3 years (18th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

Height without shoes: 6' 4.50''
Wingspan: 6' 10.50''
NBA Size: SG or big PG

3. NCAA Team Role:

NCAA Starter at PG
bpm: 8.1 (56th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths
- Leading Scorer: highest usg, pts/40
  - high rim % at 70%
  - high 2P% at 57%
- Leading playmaker: highest AST_per
- Good defensive stats: stl% and blk%
- good 3pa/100 rate
- high unassisted rate at all levels: rim, mid, dunk, three
Flaws
- low 3P%: 0.33
- low mid shooting %: 0.31
- low FT% for guard: 0.75
- athleticism: below average ORB% and dunksmade/40 for size

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
- KNN Dist: 19 of 30
- Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 2.25
  - NBA_Start% Rank: 2 of 30
  - BPM Rank: 2 of 30
  - WS/YEAR Rank: 4 of 30
  - VORP/YEAR Rank: 1 of 30
- Overall:
  - moderately distant neighbours
  - very high production in NBA

Star: Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Fox
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Fultz, Ivey, Jackson
Rotation (VORP>0): Lee, McBride
Fringe (VORP<0): Smith, Stauskas

5. Analysis

Harper is a young SG-sized prospect with potential to be both a lead scorer and playmaker in the NBA which will propel him to a star. His SG size, playmaking (ast/tov, ast%) and defensive (stl%, blk%) potential gives him a solid floor as a starter in the NBA. The path to a star like SGA, Jalen Williams or Fox is dependant on improved shooting.

The NBA stats are the blank stats in Harper’s column and the filled stats are NCAA.

One common change from NCAA to the NBA in this list is a lower rim rate. SGA, Jalen Williams, Fox, Ivey and Jackson all had decreased rim shot rate and increased mid range shot rate.
Harper’s biggest scoring strength is the rim finishing % at 0.7
Harper’s mid range finishing % is one of the lowest at 0.31 with only Ivey lower at 0.29.
Harper had the second lowest 3P% only above Fox.
Harper has similar FT% to Ivey and Fox.
Futhermore, dunkmade/40 has the highest correlations from NCAA to NBA at 0.82. Harper has a low dunkmade/40 at 0.47, only higher than McBride, a much smaller PG, and SGA, a midrange specialist.
So in the NBA, if Harper is not going to dunk at a high rate and struggle from midrange and 3P, it’s unlikely the rim shot rate will remain high enough to buoy his efficiency numbers.

If Harper disappoints offensively, it will likely due to his mid range % and 3P shooting %. His NCAA shooting % most closely resembles Fox, a star and Ivey and Smith, 2 lottery disappointments.

Fox was already a better midrange shooter than Harper and has improved his mid range shooting % in the NBA with a high mid range rate of 0.52.
Ivey is still a young NBA player that has struggled in his career (negative VORP), but was a positive starter in his most recent year. The improvement came from 3P% as he shot 0.409 last year compared to 0.352 in his career.
Smith is the danger case for Harper offensively as his mid range and 3P% never improved in the NBA and he ended up a fringe player in his career.

The defence and the playmaking will likely prevent Harper from becoming a fringe player like Smith. Harper looks likely to be a starter either as a PG or SG that can function next to a star. Harper also has some solid star potential if the shooting improves from mid range like Fox or from 3P like Ivey in his most recent year.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Starter with Moderate Star Potential

Star: Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Fox
1. SGA
  1. similar
    1. almost identical defensive stats: stl%, blk%
  2. disadvantages
    1. 6 months older
    2. higher tov%
    3. much lower 3pa/100, instead favours mid range
    4. much lower rim finishing %
    5. higher unassisted 2P%
    6. lower dunksmade/40
  3. advantages
    1. same height with 1 inch longer wingspan
    2. higher FT% and 3P% and unassisted 3P%
    3. mid range shooting %
    4. higher ast/tov ratio
  4. SGA NBA changes
    1. SGA became a much more efficient NBA scorer than NCAA scorer almost entirely due to the mid range
    2. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate
    3. NCAA mid range shooting %: 0.38
    4. NBA 10-16 ft shooting %: 0.5
2. Williams
  1. disadvantages
    1. older by almost 2 years
    2. certain scoring areas (twoP_per, ftr, rim finishing %)
    3. playmaking (AST_per)
    4. defensive (blk_per, stl_per)
    5. worse at creating own shot (Unassisted shots at all levels: rim, mid, three, dunk)
  2. advantages
    1. longer wingspan
    2. shooting (FT_per, TP_per)
    3. much higher dunksmade/40
  3. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate
    2. NCAA mid range shooting %: 0.39
    3. NBA 10-16 ft shooting %: 0.52
3. Fox
  1. similar
    1. age
    2. playmaking
    3. rebounding: orb% and drb%
    4. FT%
    5. stl%
  2. disadvantages
    1. PG sized instead of SG sized
    2. 3P% and 3pa/100
    3. blk%
  3. advantages
    1. dunksmade/40
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate
    2. NCAA mid range shooting %: 0.38
    3. NBA 10-16 ft shooting %: 0.44
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Fultz, Ivey, Jackson
1. Fultz
  1. no combine data
  2. consensus 1st overall pick that disappointed possibly due to injury, so difficult to use as a projection for Harper
  3. disadvantages
    1. rim rate and rim finishing %
    2. FT%
  4. advantages
    1. playmaker: ast/tov, ast%
    2. athleticism: orb%, dunksmade/40
    3. defensive: blk% and stl%
    4. mid range and 3 point shooting
2. Ivey
  1. high lottery pick with underwhelming career output so far (VORP<0)
  2. similar
    1. mediocre FT% for guard
    2. higher dunk rate
    3. very similar mid range rate and mid range shooting %
  3. disadvantages
    1. 1 year older than Harper
    2. worse playmaker
    3. defensive: stl% worse
    4. lower rim rate and rim finishing
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate
    2. NCAA mid range shooting %: 0.29
    3. NBA 10-16 ft shooting %: 0.36
3. Jackson
  1. didn’t measure at the combine
  2. similar
    1. playmaking
    2. rebounding
    3. 3pa/100
  3. disadvantages
    1. older by almost 2 years
    2. lower ftr
    3. lower rim rate
  4. advantages
    1. higher dunksmade/40
    2. higher 3P%, FT%, mid range shooting %
  5. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate
    2. NCAA mid range shooting %: 0.42
    3. NBA 10-16 ft shooting %: 0.42
Rotation (VORP>0): Lee, McBride
1. Lee
  1. didn’t measure at combine
  2. disadvantages
    1. 1.7 years older
    2. much lower bpm than Harper
  3. NBA stat changes
    1. very high rim rate in NCAA at 0.51, but dropped to 0.34 in NBA
    2. mid range rate rose in response
2. McBride
  1. 6th man in NBA
  2. disadvantages
    1. 1.5 years older
    2. PG sized: shorter with smaller wingspan
  3. NBA stat changes
    1. amongst neighbours highest NCAA mid range rate: 0.49
    2. mid range rate dropped to 0.26 in NBA
    3. increased rate of threes in NBA
    4. rim rate decreased in NBA
Fringe (VORP<0): Smith, Stauskas
1. Smith
  1. lottery pick that disappointed
  2. didn’t measure at combine
  3. similar
    1. FT%, 2P%, 3P%
    2. mid range %
  4. disadvantages
    1. ast/tov
    2. blk%
    3. 3pa/100
    4. lower rim finishing %
  5. advantages
    1. higher dunksmade/40
  6. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate
    2. NBA FG% from 10-16 ft: 0.29
2. Staukas
  1. lottery pick that disappointed
  2. disadvantages
    1. older by 1.4 years
    2. SG dimensions with shorter wingspan
    3. much lower ast%, a SG rather than a PG
    4. worse defensive stats: blk% and stl%
    5. lower rim rate
  3. advantages
    1. FT% and 3P%
    2. mid range %

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