Egor Demin Draft Analysis

NBA Production: 6th Man / Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 19.3 years (18th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 8.25''

• Wingspan: 6' 10.25''

• NBA Size: Tall SG or small Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at PG

• bpm: 5 (22nd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • lead playmaker (highest ast% and usg on team)

  • high ast/tov

  • 3rd highest pts/40

  • average 2P%

  • good blk% and stl%

  • average rim and dunk shooting %

  • high 3pa/100

  • high unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

• Flaws:

  • low bpm (and much lower vs top100 opponents)

  • very low orb% (lowest on team including bench players)

  • high tov%

  • low FT% and 3P%

  • below average mid shooting %

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 25 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 23

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 20 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 23 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 25 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 24 of 30

  • Overall:

    • very distant neighbours

    • low production in NBA

1. Star: Murray

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Carrington, Knight

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Anthony, Wallace, Mack

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Lewis, Mannion, Johnson, Chandler

5. Analysis

Egor Demin is in the coveted big playmaker mould. A PG in the body of a big SG. Unfortunately in the NCAA, Demin played more like a regular sized PG. His ast% is fantastic for a PG with a solid ast/tov. Despite being 6’8, he somehow had a 1.3 orb%, the lowest on BYU and the lowest on everyone in this list except for 1.

Demin had one of the largest drops in production when removing non-top 100 opponents. Removing the 7 of those 33 games drops his bpm down to only 2.85. The role-player stats all experience sizeable drops (orb%, blk%, stl%). His finishing drops at all levels (2P%, 3P%, rim finishing %, dunk finishing %). His premier skill, ast% remains steady, but the ast/tov drops to 1.63.

Demin is a tough evaluation because his archetype is heavily coveted in the NBA as a large playmaker. But if doesn’t play like large, how valuable will he be in a lead role? Offball, his questionable shooting make an awkward fit. And his low dunksmade/40 means he won’t be dunking off cuts. His profile is reminiscent of another international jumbo playmaker with questionable shooting, Giddey. Giddey was an awkward fit in OKC offball next to SGA until he was eventually moved for a better fit.

Of his neighbours, Murray is the star comparison, and also was a questionable NCAA shooting PG and remains one in the NBA. Anthony and Wallace are 6th men and would be good outcomes for Demin. Wallace especially early in his career has been mostly offball and has succeeding on his defence and improved 3 point shot. Demin’s blk% and stl% are still promising so if he can leverage the defence, excellent ast/tov and improved 3 point shooting, he can be quite successful in a 6th man role. And if 1 day he realizes he is 6’8 and plays like it, he can be a valuable starter with his size and vision. It would require him to play bigger vs NBA than he did vs NCAA competition.

Predicted NBA Outcome: 6th Man / Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Star: Murray

   1. Murray

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years older

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. stl%

         4. rim rate

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. no combine: PG size

         3. ast% and ast/tov

         4. 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. 3pa/100

         7. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         8. rim/dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% and 3P% rose to 0.34

         2. increased mid rate

         3. increased ast% while also decreasing tov%

         4. ast/tov large increase to 2.57

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Carrington, Knight

   1. Carrington

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years younger

         2. orb%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. big PG or SG size

         3. ast%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. rim rate

         7. much lower dunksmade/40

         8. much lower rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P%

         2. ast/tov

         3. unassisted rim/3 %

         4. much higher mid shooting % at 0.5

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% rose to 0.34

         2. decreased unassisted 2 and 3%

         3. decreased ast% and usg

         4. ast/tov rose to 2.59

   2. Knight

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.2 years older

         3. 3pa/100

         4. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. PG size

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim and dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. 3P%

         3. ast/tov

         4. pts/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.35

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Anthony, Wallace, Mack

   1. Anthony

      1. similar

         1. 0.8 years older

         2. no combine: PG size

         3. orb%

         4. stl%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted dunk %

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 3P%

         2. ast/tov

         3. pts/40

         4. unassisted rim/mid/3 %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased unassisted 3 and 2%

         2. ast/tov rose to 2

   2. Wallace

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years older

         2. blk%

         3. pts/40

         4. unassisted mid/dunk %

      2. disadvantages

         1. PG size with long wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted 3 %

         7. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. FT% and 3P%

         4. very high stl%

         5. ast/tov

         6. unassisted rim %

         7. rim/mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% rose to 0.39

         2. more offball: large decrease unassisted 2%

         3. large usg drop

         4. large ast% decrease

         5. ast/tov rose to 2.86

   3. Mack

      1. similar

         1. bpm

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.9 years older

         2. PG size

         3. ast%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. ast/tov

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted dunk %

         9. dunksmade/40 of 0

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. FT%

         3. 3P%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim/mid/3 %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.33

         2. unassisted 2 and 3% dropped

         3. ast% rose

         4. large usg drop

         5. ast/tov rose to 2.58

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Lewis, Mannion, Johnson, Chandler

   1. Lewis

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. bpm

         3. 0.1 years younger

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. unassisted rim%

         6. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. no combine: PG size

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid %

         6. dunskmade/40

         7. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. pts/40

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted 3%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.29

         2. rim rate dropped

         3. unassisted 2 and 3% dropped

         4. ast% dropped

         5. ast/tov rose to 3

   2. Mannion

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. orb%

         3. stl%

         4. unassisted rim and mid %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. PG size

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted dunk %

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P%

         2. ast/tov

         3. pts/40

         4. unassisted 3 %

         5. mid shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 30 NBA games

   3. Johnson

      1. similar

      2. disadvantages

         1. 2 years older

         2. PG size

         3. bpm

      3. advantages

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 47 NBA games

   4. Chandler

      1. similar

         1. 0.5 years older

      2. disadvantages

         1. PG size

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 36 NBA games