Hugo González Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Fringe
1. Draft Age
19.4 years (22nd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Spanish-ACB league
Euroleague (1st level European cup similar to Champions League in European football)
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 6.25''
Wingspan: 6' 10.75''
NBA Size: SG or Small Wing
3. Team Role
Real Madrid finished 1st out of 18 in Spanish league and 6 out of 18 in Euroleague
Strengths
usg of 17.7 and 16.4
Flaws
10th in min/g on team in Spain and 15th in Euroleague
low ast% and pts/g
very low FG%
below average 3P% and FT%
high foul rate (PF/40) in Spanish league and Euroleague
eDIF (net rating) of 5.4 is lowest on entire team
4. Nearest Neighbours
Euroleague Data
Star: Porzingis
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Batum, Bogdanovic
Rotation (VORP>=0): Varejao, Juancho, Satoranksy, Bellinelli, Korkmaz
Fringe (VORP<0): Krejci, Gelabale, Claver, Hezonja, Bolmaro, Bender, Osman
5. Analysis
Hugo played a very limited role for a good Spanish and Euroleague team so the sample to evaluate him is limited compared to the other international prospects in this draft class.
Batum is a starter and would be an excellent 3 and D wing outcome for Hugo. Batum didn’t measure at the combine, but is likely a true wing with a 7 plus wingspan while Hugo is more of a taller SG or small wing. Hugo’s stl% indicate he is unlikely to be a defensive playmaking wing and provide surplus value in that area. Batum was the same age as Hugo, but played a much larger role on his Euroleague team. Batum has a much higher ast% and ast/tov so Hugo lacks the defensive and playmaking upside of Batum. A similar outcome would be unlikely.
Bojan is another starter which didn’t measure at the combine, but is likely similar sized or bigger than Hugo. Bojan was 2.8 years older and played heavy minutes for his Euroleague team in contrast to Hugo. Bojan wasn’t very efficient in the Euroleague, but has been very efficient in the NBA at 46%/39%/86%. This would be the ideal outcome for Hugo, but he had a more limited role than Bojan and it is difficult to extrapolate Hugo’s limited Euroleague role to Bojan’s. Hugo’s Euroleague 35% FG and 69% FT means that he is not likely to shoot as well as Bojan in the NBA.
Bellinelli is a SG (didn’t measure at combine) likely smaller size to Hugo. Bellinelli was 1.8 years older and a positive VORP NBA rotation player. Bellinelli struggled shooting in the Euroleague with 38%/32%/76%, but improved in the NBA to 42%/38%/85%. Bellinelli didn’t provide other role player stats in the Euroleague or NBA (ast%, stl%, blk%, orb%), so Hugo can be a better role-playing SG than Bellinelli provided he makes the same shooting leap that Bellinelli did in the NBA.
Korkmaz is by VORP barely a rotation player who was younger than Hugo by 0.5 years and had a similar limited Euroleague role. Korkmaz didn’t measure at the combine, but is likely also a SG/small wing sized player. They have some similarities in the limited Euroleague sample: orb%, ast%, stl% and similarly inconsistent shooting. Korkmaz shot 41%/36%/76% in the NBA, which is a more realistic outcome than Bellinelli’s improvement for Hugo. Korkmaz looks to be a realistic outcome for Hugo as a fringe rotation player if his shooting doesn’t take a large jump.
Hernangomez didn’t measure at the combine, but is likely wing-sized with better physical tools on the defensive end. Juan had the orb% advantage, but was actually worse than Hugo in stl% and blk%. Juan was barely a NBA rotation player and is now overseas.
Satoransky was a decent rotation player in the NBA with similar height with a shorter wingspan. He was more of a PG than Hugo with a higher ast%, but with a similar ast/tov in the Spanish league. Satoransky became a PG in the NBA with a ast% of 25.3% and an ast/tov of 3.15. It’s difficult to project Hugo making a playmaking jump to a PG like Satoransky when he played limited minutes and with a lower ast% than many Spanish and Euroleague SG neighbours who never became NBA PGs.
There are a number of fringe SG/Wing neighbours that are risk cases for Hugo: Krejci, Hezonja, Bender, Osman. It shows the difficulty of extrapolating European players that play limited minutes and roles on their teams. From this list, none averaged more than 20 min/g. Krejci is still an NBA rotation player and has the possibility to get to positive VORP. His career NBA shooting splits are: 47%/39%/76%. The rest are playing overseas as they couldn’t find a consistent NBA role due to their inconsistent shooting and lack of other ancillary production.
Hugo also had a high PF/40 compared to some of his Spanish league and Euroleague neighbours, so a primary defensive role isn’t likely at the moment. He’ll likely have to provide value on the offensive end to have a rotation spot.
It’ll take a large extrapolation to project Hugo’s current level to an NBA rotation player. With his physical tools (SG or small wing-sized) and limited role player stats (orb%, stl%, ast%), his NBA outcome is likely going to completely depend on 3P shooting. There are different outcomes:
Starter like Bojan if he’s excellent
Rotation like Bellinelli if he’s very good
Fringe Rotation like Korkmaz or Krejci if he’s decent
Overseas like Bender, Hezonja, Hernangomez, Osman if he doesn’t improve
I rather not gamble on a SG or small wing with limited ancillary skills that also needs to be a more reliable 3P shooter.