Jase Richardson Draft Analysis

NBA projection: 6th Man / Starter

1. Draft Age

• 19.7 years (31st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Note Tankathon has Jase’s age incorrectly listed as 18.7 when he is actually 19.7

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 0.50''

• Wingspan: 6' 6.00''

• NBA Size: PG

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA 6th Man/ Starter at SG

• bpm: 9.1 (71st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • highest pts/40

  • low usage (5th highest usg, 3rd highest ast%)

  • high bpm

  • scoring efficiency

    • above average from FT%, 2P% and 3P%

    • average rim and mid finishing %

  • decent stl%

  • very high ast/tov

• Flaws:

  • dunk finishing % only 0.83

  • low dunksmade/40

  • average unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

  • low ast% for PG prospect

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 7 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 22

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 21 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 21 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 21 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 25 of 30

  • Overall:

    • close neighbours

    • below average production in NBA

1. Star: Markkanen

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hunter

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Kennard, Adams, Quickley, Anderson

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Lamb, Smith, Mathurin, Hawkins

5. Analysis

Jase Richardson is going to be an excellent test case of opportunity vs ability once he enters the NBA. Jase is a PG sized player that began as a 6th man for Mich St and then progressed to starting SG. If he is able to make the playmaking leap to starting NBA PG, he can be one of the biggest draft steals projected in the late lottery or later.

Jase’s successful transition from NCAA 6th man to starting SG is notable as he will likely need to take the same route in the NBA. As a starter, Jase increased his minutes, usg, bpm, orb%, drb%, 3pa/100. The notable drops as a starter were in 2P% and ast%, but also with a sizeable drop in to%.

Mich St had a starting PG, Fears, with a very high ast% of 38.8%. Thus Jase did not have the opportunity to be a starting PG. Jase’s excellent ast/tov ratio of 2.27 overall and 2.5 as a starter suggests he may already have the ability to be a starting PG, he just needs the opportunity.

This pathway from 6th man to starting NBA PG is one that Monk and Quickley, one of Jase’s neighbours, successfully completed. Monk was also a NCAA starting SG with a low ast% (13.3%) next to a starting PG, Fox (ast% of 28.6%). Monk was an effective NBA 6th man, ironically next to Fox, that now has the starting PG role on the Kings after Fox’s trade. In the NBA, Monk was able to raise his ast% to 20.8% and ast/tov to 2. Monk had the ability to be a starting PG, he just needed the opportunity. And Jase is a superior NCAA prospect to Monk while being 0.3 years older.

Jase compared to Monk is:

• better role-playing aspects (orb%, drb%)

• better playmaking (lower to% and much higher ast/tov)

• similar defensive (stl% and blk%)

• similar FT% and 3P% with a sizeable advantage at 2P% notably rim shooting %.

Unfortunately Monk did not attend the combine to determine if his measurements are superior to Jase. Jase has almost identical combine height and length to Tyus Jones, another PG that has transitioned from 6th man to starting PG.

Quickley was an older sophomore of 21 years and actually had the 3rd highest ast% on Kentucky (after Hagans really high 36.2% and future star PG Maxey at 18.3%). Jase along with an age advantage, was better or similar on most of the important PG stats except for FT% and unassisted rim/mid%). Quickley was a 6th man of the year candidate on New York before becoming the starting PG on the Raptors.

So Jase has a high floor of 6th man/starting PG, but also with potential to be a star. The star ironically was also the 6th man to Fox before Monk, Haliburton.

Haliburton entered the NBA draft as a sophomore, and as a freshman was 0.4 years younger than Jase. Freshman Hali was incredibly low usage (10.1), very high ast/tov (4.5) SG with the 2nd highest ast% on his team. As a sophomore (0.6 years older than freshman Jase) with the opportunity to be the starting PG, his ast% doubled to 35.3% with a similar ast/tov to Jase. The 3pa/100 and 3P% of starter Jase and sophomore Hali are nearly identical. Hali had a much higher 2P% than starter Jase, but Jase has a much higher free throw rate (44.7) than Hali (18.4). Overall their TS% is both good for a PG prospect. Unfortunately, Hali also didn’t measure at the combine and is likely significantly taller and longer than Jase, which would give Hali an advantage in the NBA.

Monk, Quickley, and Hali showed the path for Jase to be a starter and potentially star player with Jase’s unrealized starting PG potential. He might already have the ability and just needs the opportunity. Jase can begin as a 6th man and then become a starting PG. If the drafting team already has non-PG lead playmaker, then Jase might be able to start as an offball PG that plays PG on defence and SG on offence until he potentially becomes a lead PG. Examples of this would be Denver (Jokic), Lakers (Luka), Thunder (SGA), Celtics (Tatum), Raptors (Barnes), Pistons (Cade).

Quickley as an older prospect was drafted later than the others with the 25th pick. Monk was drafted with the 11th pick and Hali with the 12th pick. If Jase is picked around the same area or later as projected, he can be a starter or unlikely star player picked outside the early lottery.

Predicted NBA Outcome: 6th Man / Starter

Appendix:

1. Star: Markkanen

   1. Markkanen

      1. similar

         1. low to%

         2. FT%, 2P% and 3P%

         3. ftr

         4. pts/40

         5. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk %

         6. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         7. dunk finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 0.4 years older

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. rim finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. no combine, but large wing size instead of PG

         2. orb%

         3. blk%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate

         2. decreased orb%

         3. increased ast% and decreased to%

         4. increased ast/tov: positive in NBA

         5. increased pts/40

         6. more offball: decreased unassisted 2%

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hunter

   1. Hunter

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. 2P% and 3P%

         3. pts/40

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted mid %

         6. rim/mid made %

      2. disadvantage

         1. 1.8 years older

         2. FT%

         3. stl%

         4. ast/tov

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted 3%

      3. advantage

         1. no combine data, wing sized

         2. orb%

         3. blk%

         4. unassisted rim/dunk%

         5. dunksmade/40

      4. Hunter NBA changes

         1. negative VORP for career: now 6th man/fringe starter

         2. increased 3 rate, decreased rim rate

         3. decreased role player stats: orb%, ast%, stl%, blk%

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Kennard, Adams, Quickley, Anderson

   1. Kennard

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. FT%

         5. 2P% and 3P%

      2. disadvantage

         1. 1.3 years older

         2. taller with similar wingspan

         3. bpm

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. ast/tov

         6. rim rate

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. mid shooting %

      3. advantage

         1. 3P%

         2. pts/40

         3. 3pa/100

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         5. rim shooting %

      4. Kennard NBA changes

         1. 3 rate increased

         2. more offball: unassisted 2% decreased

   2. Adams

      1. similar

         1. 0.2 years older

         2. ast%

         3. FT%, 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rates

         6. rim and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size: taller with longer wingspan

         2. 3P%

         3. blk%

         4. ast/tov

         5. unassisted mid%

         6. dunksmade/40 of 0

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. stl%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. played only 32 NBA games

   3. Quickley

      1. similar

         1. taller with longer wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. 3P%

         4. pts/40

         5. unassisted 3%

         6. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. 1.3 years older

         3. ast% and ast/tov

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. rim rate

         7. dunskmade/40

         8. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT%

         2. 3pa/100

         3. unassisted rim/mid %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 6th man in Knicks to starter in Raptors

         2. FT% and 3P% down

         3. ftr down

         4. unassisted 3% way up

         5. ast% way up

         6. ast/tov way up to 2.85

   4. Anderson

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 3P%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted rim %

         7. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.9 years older

         2. FT% and 2%

         3. stl%

         4. ast/tov

         5. pts/40

         6. unassisted 3/dunk %

         7. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. SG/Wing size: much taller and longer wingspan

         2. blk%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted mid %

         5. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% way down

         2. ast% down

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Lamb, Smith, Mathurin, Hawkins

   1. Lamb

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. FT%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. rim and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 0.9 years older

         2. bpm

         3. orb%

         4. ast% and ast/tov

         5. 2P%

         6. blk% and stl%

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted 3%

         9. dunksmade/40 of 0

      3. advantages

         1. taller with similar wingspan

         2. 3P%

         3. unassisted rim%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. played only 100 NBA games

   2. Smith

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

      2. disadvantages

         1. FT%

         2. ast/tov

         3. 3pa/100

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk

         5. rim finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.7 years older

         2. taller with longer wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. 2P% and 3P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. much higher rim rate

         7. much higher dunksmade/40

         8. mid and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. only 13 NBA games as serious allergy affected start of career

   3. Mathurin

      1. similar

         1. 0.3 years older

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%, FT%

         4. ftr

         5. unassisted mid %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. FT%, 2P%, 3P%

         3. ast/tov

         4. stl%, blk%

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim%, unassisted dunk%

         6. rim shooting %

         7. much higher mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. SG size: taller with longer wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted 3%

         5. much higher dunksmade/40 and dunk finishing %

      4. Mathurin NBA changes

         1. 6th man SG

         2. ast% and ast/tov dropped

         3. 3P% dropped

         4. mid rate rose while three rate dropped

   4. Hawkins

      1. similar

         1. orb%

         2. 3P%

         3. unassisted rim%

      2. disadvantage

         1. 1.4 years older

         2. ast% and ast/tov (negative in NCAA)

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted 3/dunk%

         7. rim/mid shooting %

      3. advantage

         1. taller with similar wingspan

         2. FT%

         3. blk%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. unassisted mid%

      4. Hawkins NBA changes

         1. 1 dimensional 3P specialist (62% 3 attempt rate) shooting 0.35 from 3P