Jeremiah Fears Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Starter / 6th Man

Post Draft

1. Summer League

Pre Draft

1. Draft Age

• 18.7 years (3rd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 2.50''

• Wingspan: 6' 5.25''

• NBA Size: PG

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at PG

• bpm: 4.9 (19th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • leading scorer and playmaker (highest usg, pts/40, ast%)

  • high FT%

  • high stl%

  • decent ast/tov

  • above average mid finishing %

  • decent 3pa/100

  • above average rim rate

  • above average unassisted rim and mid %

• Flaws:

  • low bpm

  • low 3P%

  • below average 2P%

  • very low rim finishing %

  • below average dunksmade/40

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 10 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 7.75

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 1 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 14 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 13 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 3 of 30

  • Overall:

    • moderately close neighbours

    • very good production in NBA

1. Star: Gilgeous-Alexander, Fox, Wall

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Sexton, Ivey, Collier, Payton

3. Fringe (VORP<0): Smith, Warren, Baldwin

5. Analysis

Fears is a very young PG prospect that had a large playmaking and scoring burden on Oklahoma. Whether he can translate his game to the NBA is difficult to determine. As the smallest players on the court, most PG are attacked defensively so it is likely most of the value needs to come on the offensive end. Either by playmaking where Fears had a rather pedestrian ast/tov ratio of 1.21 or by scoring efficiently. Fears’ main efficiency issues are the 2 areas that PG need to be efficient in to be effective offensive engines. His rim efficiency was only 0.53 indicating he lacks the interior scoring craft of an efficient small guard like Kyrie Irving. And he shot poorly from 3P% at 0.28 where efficient small guards can excel. His FT% was good at 85% so there is hope that his 3P% can improve significantly in the NBA. The mid range was where Fears had above average, but not elite efficiency at 0.46. Relying on mid range efficiency in the NBA is the most difficult shot profile for a small PG.

1. SGA as MVP is SG sized instead of PG size, a superior playmaker and is able to be elite in the midrange in the NBA.

2. Wall and Fox were superior playmakers and were better at the rim and athletically with more dunksmade/40.

3. Sexton is the closest neighbour with a lot of similarities: size, age, bpm, playmaking, shot profiles and percentages. Sexton has been mostly a starter, but occasionally a 6th man. Perhaps Fears can be like Sexton, but just more efficient and better playmaking in order to reach a star level.

4. Ivey has transitioned into more of a SG in the NBA next to Cade. Fears does have a really good stl%, but limited height and wingspan would likely need to be next to a SG-sized, wing or centre lead playmaker. He would have to increase his 3 rate and 3% in order to succeed.

5. Smith and Payton are the fringe risk cases for Fears if the 3P% doesn’t improve significantly even with a strong stl%. A defence-first PG without shooting is not as useful as a starting lead playmaker.

6. Fears seems destined to straddle the line between average starting PG and 6th man like Sexton unless he develops the unexpected extra boost in efficiency and playmaking that he hasn’t shown in the NCAA.

   Predicted NBA Outcome: Starter / 6th Man

   Appendix:

1. Star: Gilgeous-Alexander, Fox, Wall

   1. Gilgeous-Alexander

      1. similar

         1. 1.2 years older

         2. orb%

         3. ast% and tov%

         4. FT%, 2P%

         5. stl%

         6. mid finishing %

         7. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. 3pa/100

         2. mid rate

         3. unassisted 3%

         4. rim finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. SG size: taller with longer wingspan

         2. bpm

         3. 3P%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. rim rate, rim finishing % and unassisted rim% and unassisted dunk%

      4. NBA stat change

         1. increased mid rate and efficiency

         2. increased unassisted 3%

         3. decreased ast% with large increase in pts/40

         4. ast/tov increased

   2. Fox

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.8 years older

         3. similar height with longer wingspan

         4. ast%

         5. 2P% and 3P%

         6. blk% and stl%

         7. rim rate

         8. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. FT% and 3pa/100

         3. ftr

         4. higher mid rate

         5. unassisted 3%

         6. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. lower tov% and much higher ast/tov

         3. dunksmade/40

         4. rim finishing %

      4. NBA stat change

         1. decreased rim rate and increased mid and 3 rate

         2. mid finishing% increased

         3. unassisted 3% increased

         4. 3P% increased, but still poor at 33%

         5. tov% decreased and ast/tov increased

         6. pts/40 increased

   3. Wall

      1. similar

         1. 2P%, 3P%

         2. stl%

         3. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rates

         4. unassisted rim/mid/3 %

         5. rim and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.1 years older

         2. FT%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted dunk%

         5. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. similar height but longer wingspan

         2. higher ast% and ast/tov

         3. much higher blk%

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. rim finishing %

      4. NBA stat change

         1. massive increase in ast% and massive decrease in tov%

         2. ast/tov significant rise

         3. remained below average mid range shooter

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Sexton, Ivey, Collier, Payton

   1. Sexton

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. 0.8 years older

         3. shorter but longer wingspan

         4. ast% and ast/tov

         5. 2P%

         6. 3pa/100

         7. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rates

         8. unassisted rim and mid %

      2. disadvantages

         1. FT%

         2. much lower stl%

         3. unassisted 3%

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. mid finishing %

         6. dunk finishing % only 0.6

      3. advantages

         1. rim finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate dropped

         2. unassisted 3% dropped

         3. ast% dropped by 7.3% and to% dropped

         4. ast/tov rose to 1.61

   2. Ivey

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. no combine

         3. orb%

         4. FT%

         5. ast/tov

         6. unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.6 years older

         2. lower ast%

         3. FT%

         4. much lower stl%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted 3%

         7. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. lower tov%

         2. 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. much higher blk%

         4. rim finishing %

         5. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat change

         1. increased mid rate and decreased rim rate

         2. increased ast% and decreased tov%

         3. increased ast/tov to 1.52

   3. Collier

      1. similar

         1. same height and smaller wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. 2P% and 3P%

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. ftr

         6. ast/tov

         7. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rates

         8. unassisted rim %

         9. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1 year older

         2. much lower bpm

         3. much lower FT%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid/3/dunk %

         6. rim finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. higher ast% and lower tov%

         2. 2P% and 3P%

         3. rim rate

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat change

         1. increased mid rate

         2. 3P% dropped to 0.25

         3. ast% and tov% both rose

         4. ast/tov rose to 2.17

         5. more offball: usg large decrease

   4. Payton

      1. similar

         1. 2P% and 3P%

         2. stl%

         3. unassisted rim/mid %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.6 years older

         2. very low FT%: 0.59

         3. 3pa/100

         4. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. higher bpm

         2. same height with longer wingspan

         3. much higher orb%

         4. higher ast%

         5. higher ast/tov

         6. much higher blk%

         7. rim rate and rim finishing%

         8. unassisted 3/dunk %

         9. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. increased mid and decreased rim rate

         2. large decrease unassisted 3%

         3. large decrease ftr and usg

         4. large increase asts/tov to 2.52

3. Fringe (VORP<0): Smith, Warren, Baldwin

   1. Smith

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. no combine data

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted 3%

         7. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. 0.9 years older

         2. orb%

         3. FT%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. rim rate

         6. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. higher ast% and ast/tov

         3. 3P%

         4. blk%

         5. unassisted rim/3/dunk%

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim finishing %

      4. NBA stat change

         1. decreased rim rate and increased mid rate

         2. more offball: decreased unassisted 2%, unassisted 3%, usg

         3. decreased ast%

         4. increased ast/tov to 2.21

   2. Warren

      1. similar

         1. height and wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. 3P% and 3pa/100

         5. unassisted rim%

      2. disadvantages

         1. much lower bpm

         2. 1.9 years older

         3. orb%

         4. FT%

         5. much lower stl%

         6. ast/tov

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted dunk%

         9. dunksmade/40

         10. dunk finishing % only 0.5

         11. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. rim finishing %

      4. NBA stat change

         1. only played 19 NBA games

         2. mid rate rose

         3. FT% dropped

         4. increased ast% and decreased tov%

         5. ast/tov rose greatly to 3.5

         6. more offball: large usg and pts/40 decrease

         7. 3P% still below average at 0.33

   3. Baldwin

      1. similar

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 1.5 years

         2. orb%

         3. FT% 2P%

         4. lower stl%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. rim rate

         7. unassisted 3%

         8. mid/dunk finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. same height and much longer wingspan

         3. ast%

         4. 3P%

         5. blk%

         6. ftr

         7. ast/tov

         8. unassisted rim/dunk%

         9. dunksmade/40

         10. rim finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.25

         2. mid rate increased

         3. ast% dropped by 13.7%

         4. usg dropped by 7%

         5. ast/tov dropped