Joan Beringer Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player / Starter

1. Draft Age

• 18.6 years (2nd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Adriatic-League-Liga-ABA

• Eurocup (2nd level European cup similar to Europa League in European football)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 11.00''

• Wingspan: 7' 4.50''

• NBA Size: C

3. Team Role

• KK Cedevita finished in 5 out of 16 in Adriatic league and 8 out of 20 in Eurocup

  • 3rd best DRtg in Adriatic league

• Strengths

  • 7th highest min/g on team

  • good orb% and blk%

  • very high eDIF (highest on team in Adriatic and Eurocup)

  • ast/tov is good 0.9 in Adriatic league, but only 0.4 in Eurocup

• Flaws

  • very low usg of 12.3 and 11.2%

  • very low ast%

  • very low pts/g

  • no 3s attempted

  • below average stl%

4. Nearest Neighbours

Eurocup Data

1. Star: Jokic, Porzingis

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Zubac, Gortat, Capela

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Bitadze, Bolden

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Cancar, Simonovic, Matkovic, Zizic, Lauvergne, Musa

5. Analysis

1. Joan is one of the youngest prospects in the draft, just slightly older than Flagg and Essengue.

2. The stars are unreachable outcomes for Joan. He doesn’t have the 3P shooting of either or the playmaking of Jokic. Joan is a traditional C, not a unicorn C like Jokic or Porzingis.

3. The 3 starters Zubac, Gortat and Capela would be very good outcomes for Joan. Zubac only played 5 games in the Adriatic league and was 0.7 years older than Joan.

   1. Zubac advantages: blk%, pts/40, pfs/40

   2. Joan advantages: ast%, ast/tov, FG%

   3. similar: orb%, FT%, eDIF (net rating)

4. Gortat was 2.7 years older than Joan

   1. Gortat advantages: FT%. FG%, pts/40

   2. Joan advantages: orb%, pfs/40

   3. similar: blk%, ast/tov (in Eurocup), almost identical height and wingspan

5. Capela was 1.5 years older

   1. Capela advantages: FG%, pts/40

   2. Joan advantages: FT%, ast/tov

   3. similar: orb%, stl%, blk%, pfs/40

6. Bitadze is 1.3 years older

   1. Goga advantages: FT%, 3P%, FTA/40,

   2. Joan advantages: orb%, blk%, ast/tov, pfs/40

   3. similar: ast%, FG%

7. Beringer has the size to be a C, with almost identical height and wingspan to Gortat, while being taller with similar wingspans to NBA C starters Jarrett Allen and Myles Turner. His orb% is similar to Zubac and Capela, 2 starting NBA Cs. Orb% had good correlation between the Adriatic league and NBA, so I expect it to translate for Beringer as well.

8. His blk% is better than Goga, Capela and Porzingis, who have been decent NBA rim protectors. Blk% is correlated highly in both the Adriatic and Eurocup leagues to the NBA. Beringer’s stl% is similar or better than Goga, Zubac, Gortat, and Capela.

9. Stl% has poorer correlation from the Adriatic and Eurocup league, but I expect Beringer would not be expected to be significantly worse as a perimeter defender than these NBA Cs.

10. PF/40 is an important marker for defensive Cs as they need to be able to protect the rim without fouling. It has poor correlation in both the Adriatic and Eurocup. Beringer has better PF/40 than Goga and Gortat, with very similar PF/40 to Capela.

11. Beringer can be a decent starting defensive NBA C especially since he is younger than all of these starting NBA Cs as prospects and is similar or better in many important statistical areas.

12. Beringer in Europe is even more limited offensively than Capela, a very limited offensive NBA C. Beringer in Eurocup had and Ast% of 1.9%, which has a high correlation between Eurocup and the NBA. Beringer faired better in the Adriatic league with an ast% of 5.2%, better than Goga and Zubac, and both improved their ast% and ast/tov in the NBA. Ast% has a lower correlation from the Adriatic league than Eurocup, so it’s unclear at what level Beringer will be in the NBA as a playmaker. His very low ast% means that he is unlikely to playmake effectively out of the pick and roll. And since Beringer doesn’t shoot 3s and has a poor FT%, he likely will be limited to being a C rim runner on offence.

13. Even though he is younger than most of his neighbours, his limitations in non-traditional C stats (ast%, stl%, 3P%, pts/40) limit his upside to a defensive C rim runner. He will likely need to be paired with an elite pick and roll ballhandler like Harden to provide anything on the offensive end. With the right heliocentric playmaker, he can potentially start, but is likely better suited as a defensive substitute for a C that can provide non-traditional C stats while being solid defensively.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player / Starter