Johni Broome Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 22.9 years (93rd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• 5th year Senior

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 9.25''

• Wingspan: 7' 0.25''

• NBA Size: Wing or small C

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at C

• bpm: 13.8 (97th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • lead scorer: highest usg and pts/40

  • 2nd highest ast%

  • high ast/tov

  • high orb%

  • decent blk% and stl%

  • above average mid%

  • above average rim rate

• Flaws:

  • low FT%

  • below average 2P% for C

  • low 3P%

  • below average rim%

  • below average shot creation: rim/mid/3/dunk %

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 27 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 12.75

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 25 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 4 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 11 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 11 of 30

  • Overall:

    • very distant neighbours

    • average production in NBA

1. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hart, Crowder, Fields

2. Rotation (VORP>=0): Jackson-Davis, Kaminsky, Muscala, Barton

3. Fringe (VORP<0): Garza, Johnson, Carter

5. Analysis

Broome is a 5th year senior, undersized C that was one of the best NCAA players in 2025. He has been productive in the NCAA except his freshman year and has improved in bpm every year.

The biggest stat changes in his senior year:

1. large increase in ast/tov

2. drop in blk%

Broome has some non-big neighbours due to his ast%, stl% and a 2P% and rim shooting % that isn’t comparable to traditional C. There are 4 neighbours with potentially similar NBA roles to Broome.

1. Jackson-Davis is the closest neighbour to Broome, with very similar age, height, wingspan and NCAA role as Broome. TJD as a rookie has been productive in a mostly bench C role with the occasional start for the Warriors, a playoff team. Rookie TJD would be a solid outcome for Broome already and it remains to see if his career can improve even more. TJD has some important advantages over Broome: higher blk%, FT%, rim rate and much higher dunksmade/40. TJD also further increased his dunksmade/40 by a large amount to 4.06 in the NBA, likely due to the Curry effect. Broome having a large increase in dunksmade/40 would be excellent for his middling 2P% efficiency, but would require the right team setup and playmaking to unlock. TJD is a better C than Broome, but Broome can still be an effective rotation C as a less productive TJD.

2. The other 3 neighbours: Kaminsky, Garza, and Muscala play differently in the NBA as more stretch 5s to varying degrees of success. They were significantly better NCAA FT% shooters in the 70s while Broome was at 59%. Broome would need a huge improvement in the NBA to shoot like a stretch 5 as even these neighbours have had mixed success with better NCAA priors.

3. Notably all 4 neighbours had huge drops in blk% and usg in the NBA, so Broome needs to be effective at higher volume either from 2P% like TJD or from 3P% like the stretch 5 neighbours.

4. Broome is a good role playing C with decent defensive production (blk% and stl%) and playmaking (ast% and ast/tov). He’ll have to improve his scoring efficiency in order to be a starter, but the role as a bench C looks reasonable.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hart, Crowder, Fields

   1. Hart

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. 2P%

         3. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size

         3. orb%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

         8. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. 0.6 years younger

         2. FT% and 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. stl%

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         5. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.34

         2. ast% down

         3. usg down

         4. ast/tov up to 2.29

   2. Crowder

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. ast/tov

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. blk%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted rim%

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 1 year younger

         2. FT%, 2P%, 3P%, 3pa/100

         3. stl%

         4. unassisted mid%

         5. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate way down, 3 rate way up

         2. orb% and drb% down

         3. ast% down

         4. stl% and blk% down

   3. Fields

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. pts/40

         3. 3pa/100

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. no combine, wing size

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. ast/tov

         7. rim rate

         8. dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.9 years older

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. stl%

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased ast%

         2. large usg decrease

         3. ast/tov rose to 1.45

2. Rotation (VORP>=0): Jackson-Davis, Kaminsky, Muscala, Barton

   1. Jackson-Davis

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. bpm

         3. 0.4 years younger

         4. shorter with longer wingspan

         5. 2P%

         6. stl%

         7. pts/40

         8. unassisted rim%

         9. rim/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. ast/tov

         4. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT%

         3. blk%

         4. ftr

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted mid/dunk %

         7. much higher dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% down to 0.57

         2. rim rate way down, mid/dunk rate up

         3. unassisted 2 down

         4. ast% way down

         5. blk% way down

         6. usg way down

         7. dunksmade/40 way up

         8. ast/tov up to 2

   2. Kaminsky

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. taller with shorter wingspan

         3. ast%

         4. 2P%

         5. stl%

         6. 3pa/100

         7. unassisted rim%

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. mid/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. blk%

         3. ast/tov

         4. pts/40

         5. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. 0.7 years younger

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. unassisted mid/dunk%

         4. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% drop to 0.35

         2. unassisted 2% down

         3. drb% down

         4. ast% way down

         5. blk% way down

         6. usg down

   3. Muscala

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. 3P%

         3. blk%

         4. pts/40

         5. unassisted mid %

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. 2P%

         4. stl%

         5. ast/tov

         6. 3pa/100

         7. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. 0.9 years younger

         2. taller with longer wingspan

         3. FT%

         4. unassisted rim/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% way up to 0.37

         2. FT% up to 0.83

         3. rim/mid rate way down, 3 rate way up

         4. drb% and orb% way down

         5. ast% way down

         6. blk% way down

         7. usg way down

   4. Barton

      1. similar

         1. ast%

         2. 2P%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted rim %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size

         3. orb%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. 1.5 years younger

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. stl%

         4. shot creation: unassisted mid/3/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate down, 3 rate up

         2. drb% and orb% down

         3. ast/tov up to 1.93

3. Fringe (VORP<0): Garza, Johnson, Carter

   1. Garza

      1. similar

         1. 0.4 years younger

         2. 2P%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted mid%

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. ast% and ast/tov

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. unassisted rim%

         6. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. taller with longer wingspan

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. pts/40

         4. unassisted dunk%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% down to 0.31

         2. rim rate way down, 3 rate way up

         3. ast% down

         4. blk% way down

   2. Johnson

      1. similar

         1. height and wingspan

         2. pts/40

         3. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 3P% and 3pa/100

         5. blk%

         6. negative ast/tov

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted rim/mid %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.9 years younger

         2. FT%, 2P%

         3. stl%

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% large drop to 0.6

         2. mid rate up

         3. 21 career NBA games

   3. Carter

      1. similar

         1. 2P%

         2. dunksmade/40

         3. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. big PG or SG size

         3. orb%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 0.6 years younger

         2. ast%

         3. FT% and 3P% and 3pa/100

         4. stl%

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rookie with 36 career NBA games