NBA Career
NBA Career Analysis
Ranks 22nd in 4th Pick analysis
Ranks 50th in 2017 Draft Year analysis
Comparing Jackson’s career NBA to his final NCAA year
similar: ast/tov
increased in NBA: FT% (still below avg), mid rate, 3PAr
decreased in NBA: dunk rate, 2P%, 3P%, rim finishing %, rim rate, ftr, orb%, ast%, stl%, blk%
Jackson was a high lottery pick freshman wing that underwhelmed due to large decreases in 2P% and 3P%, lower rim rate and finishing and decreased role player production
Pre Draft
Predraft NCAA Analysis
Jackson didn’t measure at the combine, but was an older freshman wing who was a high usg, 2nd leading scorer on the 2017 Kansas team.
He had peculiar NCAA shooting splits with a 57% FT, but 38% 3P%
His 2P% was above average buoyed by a high dunks/40 and above average rim rate
He showed some shot creation from rim/mid/3/dunk unasssisted%
his NCAA role player production was solid for a wing: stl%, blk%, ast/tov, orb%, dunks/40
2025 Model
1. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age
Star: Paolo, Tatum, Beal, Cade
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Johnson
Rotation (VORP>=0): Filipowski, Barton
Fringe (VORP<0): Leslie, McDaniels, Winslow
2. 2025 Model Analysis
For a freshman wing prospect, Jackson has some of the best possible neighbours with 4 high lottery wings and guards as neighbours: Paolo, Tatum, Beal, Cade
Jackson fares well in the wing role player stats compared to all 4:
orb%, stl%, blk%, ast%, ast/tov, dunks/40, rim rate, dunk rate
All of these role player stats dropped for Jackson in the NBA
The poor NCAA FT% on high fta/40 was the biggest statistical red flag for Jackson’s shooting. He raised his FT% in the NBA, but it was still poor for a wing. The high NCAA 3P% was indeed an illusion as it dropped to a very poor 29% in the NBA.
Without the defensive role player production and 3 point shooting, Jackson ended up a fringe NBA player instead of the 3 and D Wing floor at was projected as a NCAA player
All 4 star neighbours had much better FT% in the NCAA and shot better from FT% and 3P% than Jackson in the NBA
Paolo as the worst NCAA FT shooter amongst the 4 neighbours would have been the closest star comparison especially since his NBA 3P and FT has been below average for a wing. Paolo didn’t measure at the combine, but he might be a taller wing than Jackson which would give him a prospect advantage. Paolo also has the youth advantage and the allure of a recent 1st overall pick All-Star
Even without the 3 and D translating to the NBA, Jackson had potential as a midrange scorer with decent playmaking. Jackson’s NCAA midrange shooting % and playmaking (ast% and ast/tov) were competitive with all 4 of these star neighbours. Jackson’s midrange shooting % stagnated, while all 4 neighbours improved to above 40% midrange shooting % for their NBA careers
Jalen Johnson is still early in his career, but has been able to be a productive NBA wing starter. Johnson began as a low usage defensive bench wing and has increased his scoring usage as his career progresses.
Johnson played fewer NCAA games and missed the end and most competitive part of the NCAA season including the Conference and NCAA tournaments so the NCAA stat comparisons are not entirely the same.
Even with Jackson playing more competitive NCAA games, his defensive role player stats are comparable or better in many areas. Johnson hasn’t been efficient from 3P% or FT% in the NBA, but his 2P% efficiency has buoyed his NBA efficiency.
In the NCAA, Jackson had the 2P% and dunks/40 advantage, but it has flipped in the NBA. This might be the result of playing an offball Wing role next to a playmaker like Trae Young as Johnson’s dunks/40 doubled from the NBA while Jackson’s halved
It’s surprising that Jackson couldn’t match Johnson’s early career role as a bench defensive role player based on their NCAA stats
Barton was an older SG sized prospect that was a productive role player in the NBA. Jackson’s NCAA role player stats are also comparable or better in many areas, and along with the youth and physical tools it’s also surprising he couldn’t match Barton’s NBA career.
Filipowski was more of a small C or tall PF, but as a 2nd round rookie was able to be a productive role player.
Winslow was a lottery pick wing that also underwhelmed and was a fringe NBA player that has a barely negative career VORP. Jackson didn’t measure at the combine, but was likely traditional wing size rather than small wing size like Winslow. Winslow was younger by 1.2 years which is his main prospect advantage as most of the NCAA role player stats are comparable or favour Jackson. With this stat and physical tools advantage, Jackson could be expected to at least match Winslow’s production, but Jackson couldn’t.
Jackson as a prospect appeared to have a safe floor as an offball defensive Wing with a high dunk rate and decent playmaking. And if his midrange or 3P shooting improves, star outcomes like his star neighbours were a possibility. Even if the star outcomes are discounted, just based on his youth, wing physical tools and solid NCAA role player production, early career Jalen Johnson or Barton would have been very attainable outcomes. Winslow was a borderline fringe role playing small Wing, so Jackson would have been projected to match his NBA production.
But Jackson’s role playing production dipped in the NBA. His NCAA 3P% was a mirage as his FT% warned. His low NBA 2P% and dunk rate as an athletic offball wing is bizarre, but it’s likely his poor NBA 3P shooting has contributed to that.
Jackson was one of the most desired prospect archetypes. A freshman wing on a 1 seed Kansas team with solid role player production and projectable star upside. Jackson would have been somewhere in the 1-14 starter range of my big board depending on the strength of the draft. Early career bench role player Jalen Johnson would have been a likely safe projection with the potential for more upside like Johnson has shown in his career. The low NCAA FT% on a decent number of attempts likely would have prevented me from projected the star neighbour outcomes of Tatum, Beal and Cade as they had good FT in the NCAA. Paolo would be the closest star comparison especially since he has below average FT% and 3P% in his early career, but Jackson would have been projected to have a lower star outcome than Paolo with the FT%, physical tools and youth.
To not even match players like Barton and Winslow when Jackson had realistic star wing upside is baffling, but when the 2P, 3P shooting and role player stats dip, a lottery freshman wing can be a draft outlier.