Kasparas Jakucionis Draft Analysis
NBA projection: 6th Man / Rotation Player
1. Draft Age
19.1 years (13th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 4.75''
Wingspan: 6' 7.75''
NBA Size: SG or big PG
3. NCAA Team Role:
NCAA Starter at PG
bpm: 6.5 (34th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths:
leading scorer (highest usg and highest pts/g)
leading playmaking (highest ast%)
good FT%
above average 2P% for PG
average ast/tov
high 3pa/100
shot creation: high unassisted rim/mid/3
Flaws:
below average bpm
high to%
low 3P%
below average stl%
1 dunk made in entire year (dunksmade/40 of 0.04)
below average mid %
4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age
Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
KNN Dist: 15 of 30
Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 8.75
NBA_Start% Rank: 4 of 30
BPM Rank: 11 of 30
WS/YEAR Rank: 15 of 30
VORP/YEAR Rank: 5 of 30
Overall:
averagely distant neighbours
above average production in NBA
Star: Gilgeous-Alexander, Fox, Wall
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Ivey, Collier
Rotation (VORP>=0): Lee, Okogie
Fringe (VORP<0): Smith, Warren, Springer
5. Analysis
Jakucionis was a NCAA PG, but his poor tov% and mediocre ast/tov makes him unlikely to be an effective starting PG in the NBA. Jak does have SG dimensions so a starting SG role is possible or a 6th man role. He lacks certain role player qualities desired in a starter (lowest stl% on list and extremely low dunksmade/40 which is useful for offball players cutting to the basket). However Jak did have higher 2P% on the list and higher rim finishing % than the neighbour stars: SGA, Fox and Wall, so he does have touch around the rim even when not dunking. He had the highest pull-up 3% (unassisted 3%) and significantly higher than every neighbour except for Smith, so this shot profile will likely change in the NBA if he becomes a SG or 6th man. He has a good FT% at 0.84 so shooting more assisted 3s in the NBA will likely see a rise of his NCAA 3P% of 0.32.
The NBA stats are the blank stats in Jak’s column and the filled stats are NCAA.
SGA is the MVP neighbour on the list with a much better wingspan, and was a more effective playmaker. He already was better PG prospect than Jak, but then proceeded to become an efficient and high volume NBA scorer as a midrange assassin in the NBA on way to being the MVP. Jak’s shot profile had a much lower mid range rate in the NCAA, so the path to SGA is not available.
The other 2 stars Fox and Wall were better PG prospects with much higher ast% and ast/tov ratio. They both were questionable NCAA shooters from FT% and 3P% on lower volume which continued to the NBA. They were both more athletic than Jak with much higher dunksmade/40. Their NBA paths to being a starting PG is also unlikely.
Ivey was the closest statistical match to Jak and was a recent 5th overall pick. He also had mediocre playmaking in the NCAA and has transitioned to being a starting SG next to Cade Cunningham in the NBA. This looks like a likely route for Jak. Jak is 1.2 years younger than Ivey, but was more productive in the NCAA. Jak was more efficient from 2P% and FT%. Ivey’s main advantages are in athleticism with a higher dunksmade/40 and blk%, but Jak did have a higher orb%. Despite being a starter, Ivey has a negative VORP in his early career, but this 2025, he had a positive VORP for the 1st time driven by his 40% from 3 (35% from his career). It remains to be seen if the 40% from Ivey is a fluke, but Jak has more promising NCAA shooting markers especially with a much higher pull-up 3 rate for Jak. Jak most likely needs to be a good 3P NBA shooter in order to be a SG starter.
Collier is a rookie PG with better playmaking than Jak, but is PG size and worse NCAA shooting. He has started the majority of the time for the Jazz, but has not been effective early on in his career.
Smith was a lottery pick with more PG and role player (stl%) skills than Jak, but worse shooting. He shot a similar % of unassisted 3s as Jak in the NCAA which decreased significantly in the NBA. Shooting more offball 3s in the NBA actually decreased Smith’s 3P% instead of raising it so Jak’s anticipated 3P% NBA rise is not a guarantee.
Springer is a notable risk case for Jak. He has similar measurements, age, playmaking with much higher role player upside with a high blk% and stl%. Springer had a solid FT% and a very high 3P% on lower volume. He has struggled from 3P in the NBA at only 0.24.
Jak’s path to be a NBA starter is as a SG that can excel at shooting offball 3s. 3P% is one of the least correlated stats from NCAA to NBA, so there is risk that instead of reaching 2025 Ivey levels, he ends up as the rest of Ivey’s career or even more fringe in the case of Smith and Springer. Since Jak doesn’t provide the defensive stats desired in a role player (stl%, blk%) a 6th man role is my prediction rather than a starting role.
Predicted NBA Outcome: 6th Man / Rotation Player
Appendix:
Star: Gilgeous-Alexander, Fox, Wall
Gilgeous-Alexander
similar
0.8 years older
ast%
mid finishing %
disadvantages
orb%
2P%
ftr
3pa/100
mid rate
unassisted 3%
rim finishing %
advantages
same height, but much longer wingspan
3P%
blk% and stl%
lower to% and ast/tov
rim rate and unassisted rim%
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
increased mid rate and efficiency
increased unassisted 3%
decreased ast% with large increase in pts/40
ast/tov increased
Fox
similar
bpm
0.4 years older
ast%
blk%
rim finishing %
disadvantages
shorter with smaller wingspan
orb%
FT%, 2P% and 3P% and 3pa/100
ftr
higher mid rate
unassisted 3%
advantages
much lower tov% and much higher ast/tov
much higher stl%
higher rim rate and unassisted rim%
dunksmade/40
mid finishing %
NBA stat change
decreased rim rate and increased mid and 3 rate
mid finishing% increased
unassisted 3% increased
3P% increased, but still poor at 33%
tov% decreased and ast/tov increased
pts/40 increased
Wall
similar
0.7 years older
shorter, but longer wingspan
tov%
3P%
unassisted rim%
rim and mid finishing %
disadvantages
orb%
FT%, 2P%
3pa/100
increased mid rate
unassisted 3%
advantages
much higher ast% and ast/tov
much higher blk% and stl%
increased rim rate
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
massive increase in ast% and massive decrease in tov%
ast/tov significant rise
remained below average mid range shooter
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Ivey, Collier
Ivey
similar
closest statistical match
no combine
stl%
ast/tov
3pa/100
rim rate and unassisted rim% and rim finishing %
disadvantages
bpm
1.2 years older
lower ast%
FT% and 2P%
unassisted 3%
mid finishing %
advantages
lower tov%
3P%
blk%
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
increased mid rate and decreased rim rate
increased ast% and decreased tov%
increased ast/tov to 1.52
Collier
similar
0.6 years older
2P% and 3P%
blk%
ftr
ast/tov
unassisted rim %
disadvantages
much lower bpm
PG size: shorter and smaller wingspan
orb%
much lower FT%
3pa/100 and unassisted 3%
rim finishing %
advantages
higher ast% and lower tov%
much higher stl%
rim rate
dunksmade/40
mid finishing %
NBA stat change
increased mid rate
3P% dropped to 0.25
ast% and tov% both rose
ast/tov rose to 2.17
more offball: usg large decrease
Rotation (VORP>=0): Lee, Okogie
Lee
similar
no combine data
2P% and 3P%
ast/tov
unassisted rim%
mid finishing %
disadvantages
lower bpm
1.9 years older
orb%
FT%
3pa/100
unassisted 3%
rim finishing %
advantages
higher ast% and lower to%
much higher stl%
rim rate
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
increased mid rate
decreased ast% and tov%
large increase in ast/tov to 3.11
more offball: large usg decrease
3% dropped to 27%
Okogie
similar
0.7 years older
bpm
FT%
disadvantages
lower ast%
2P% very low 0.43
negative ast/tov
3pa/100
unassisted rim% and 3%
very low rim finishing % and mid finishing %
advantages
big SG: shorter, but much longer wingspan
orb%
lower tov%
3P%
much higher blk% and stl%
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
FT% and 3P% dropped
2P% rose, but still poor 0.49
ast% and usg dropped heavily
ast/tov rose to 1.5
Fringe (VORP<0): Smith, Warren, Springer
Smith
similar
0.5 years older
bpm
no combine data
rim rate
unassisted 3%
disadvantages
orb%
FT% and 2P%
3pa/100
advantages
higher ast% and lower tov%
higher ast/tov
3P%
much higher stl%
unassisted rim%
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
decreased rim rate and increased mid rate
more offball: decreased unassisted 2%, unassisted 3%, usg
decreased ast%
increased ast/tov to 2.21
Warren
similar
ast% and tov%
3P% and 3pa/100
stl%
rim rate and unassisted rim%
dunksmade/40
disadvantages
much lower bpm
1.5 years older
PG size: shorter with smaller wingspan
orb%
FT% and 2P%
ast/tov
unassisted 3%
rim mid finishing %
advantages
mid finishing %
NBA stat change
only played 19 NBA games
mid rate rose
FT% dropped
increased ast% and decreased tov%
ast/tov rose greatly to 3.5
more offball: large usg and pts/40 decrease
3P% still below average at 0.33
Springer
similar
0.4 years younger
slightly shorter, but same wingspan
orb%
ast% and tov%
FT%
ast/tov
rim rate
rim finishing and mid finishing %
disadvantages
lower bpm
low 2P% of 0.47
3pa/100
very high mid rate
lower unassisted rim% and 3%
very low dunk finishing % at 0.8
advantages
much higher 3P%
much higher stl% and blk%
dunksmade/40
NBA stat change
shot more 3s, but 3P% dropped to 24%
more offball: large decrease in ast%, usg, pts/40
ast/tov rose to 1.6
2P% rose, but still low at 0.51