Khaman Maluach Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Starter / Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 18.8 years (5th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 7' 0.75''

• Wingspan: 7' 6.75''

• NBA Size: Big

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at C

  • lowest Min_per of any Duke starter (53.1%)

  • lowest usg of any Duke starter (16.8)

• bpm: 10.9 (89th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • high bpm

  • Above average FT%: 0.77

  • high 2P%: 0.77

  • high rim finishing: 0.77

  • high mid range finishing: 0.63

  • high dunksmade/40: 3.91

  • above average blk%: 6.8%

• Flaws:

  • Very low ast%: 4.3%

    • Note backups Maliq Brown and Patrick Ngongba had much higher

  • 2nd highest to% of any starter: 13%

    • Brown had much higher, Ngongba had lower

  • low stl%: 0.6%

    • Note backups Brown and Ngongba had much higher

  • negative ast/tov: 0.67

    • Note backups Brown and Ngongba had much higher

  • below average dunk finishing %: 0.89

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 29 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 3.75

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 5 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 1 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 2 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 7 of 30

  • Overall:

    • very distant neighbours (2nd most distant amongst 2025 Draft class)

    • very high production in NBA

1. Star: Markkanen

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Williams, Clingan, Ayton, Lively

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Hayes, Bagley, Leaf, Smith

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Okafor

5. Analysis

Maluach is a young big man who surprisingly had the 2nd most distant neighbours of the 50 draft prospects analyzed. The closest neighbour Mark Williams had a KNN Dist of 21.23 while Edgecombe for example had all 10 neighbours closer than this mark. The next neighbour, Hayes had a KNN Dist of 35.05.

This seems to be because Maluach although large with a height near 7’1 and wingspan near 7’7 is underwhelming in areas that are desired for a starting NBA centre. His blk% is below average for a C at 6.8% to the premier shot blockers at this height. He had the lowest stl% of any C on this list, and lower than his Duke C backups: Brown and Ngongba). He had a negative ast/tov ratio also lower than his Duke backups. He somehow only completed 89% of his dunks despite being over 7 feet (only PF Markannen was lower on this list). Notably the blk% of all neighbours dropped when transitioning from NCAA to NBA (average drop of 3.64%) and if Maluach experiences the same drop, this would make him a mediocre NBA rim protector. And if that is the case, Maluach needs to provide value on the offensive end that these other starting C don’t provide.

The NBA stats are the blank stats in Maluach’s column and the filled stats are NCAA.

1. The only star that Maluach had as a neighbour was Markkanen, a PF that specializes as an off-ball 3s and much better shot creation ability than Maluach. While Maluach had a very good FT% at 0.77, his 3 shot rate and 3P% was much lower than Markakanen. Maluach does provide better traditional C value than Markkanen so perhaps even if can’t quite shoot like Lauri, he can provide good value as a 3 point threat with adequate shot blocking.

2. The starters are all traditional bigs that resemble Malauch’s game more: Williams, Clingan, Ayton and Lively. Clingan and Lively are much better defensive role C prospects with a much higher blk%, stl% and ast/tov rate. If Maluach is to outperform these 2 in the NBA it would have to be on the offensive end and provide 3 point shooting which these 2 young bigs haven’t done yet.

3. Williams also was a better defensive role player C prospect although with a lower ast/tov than Clingan and Lively that was still significantly higher than Maluach’s.

4. Ayton is an interesting comparison as he had slightly lower blk% and higher stl%. His ast% and ast/tov were much better than Maluach’s. Ayton like Maluach had a good NCAA FT% and was a better 3P% than Maluach in the NCAA although this hasn’t translated in the NBA (0.23). An Ayton that can shoot 3s even with his mediocre rim protection would be a good realistic outcome.

5. For the rotation neighbours, Hayes is the one that most resembles Maluach’s dimensions and game style. He had better defensive output (stl% and blk%), but much worse playmaking. Notably his ast/tov rose to 1 in the NBA, which is a good sign for Maluach. Although he was a backup for the majority of his career, he actually started playoff games this year for the Lakers even though he was benched for no C while Gobert put up 27 points and 24 rebounds to eliminate them.

6. Bagley was a 2nd overall pick with poor shot blocking in the NCAA. He was drafted over Luka in the hopes his 40% 3P% in the NBA was real. It wasn’t as he only shot 29% in the NBA as his NBA blk% dropped even lower. Bagley shot worse from FT% than Maluach, but this is a risk case for a theoretical NCAA shooting C not shooting in the NBA.

7. Jalen Smith was a small ball C that still had better blk% and stl% than Maluach. He likely had poor playmaking with a theoretical NCAA 3 point shot that was better than Maluach’s. He had a similar FT%. His playmaking improved while the 3 point shot is average at 0.34. He was a disappointment as a lottery pick, but is still a solid backup big.

8. The fringe neighbour with a VORP of 0 despite being the 3rd overall pick is Okafor. He had worse shotblocking and playmaking in the NCAA than Maluach and shot no 3s. He is an old school C that needed to dominate in the paint, but didn’t.

9. The majority of the neighbours were high lottery picks, but ended up disappointing. Drafting Maluach based on theoretical 3 point shooting is risky as it might not translate. His poor NCAA playmaking and defensive output means that he will need this to translate. If he hits and it’s a big maybe, Maluach can be Ayton with a 3 point shot. If he misses he might be like Hayes and a nominal playoff starter because there’s literally no other option. Or like a larger Smith with an inconsistent 3 point shot as a rotation big. Personally I would rather bet on a defensive role playing C like Clingan or Lively with good defensive output (stl% and blk%) and very good ast/tov ratio than someone in Maluach’s profile.

10. Which star will be picked after Maluach I wonder?

    1. Luka picked after Ayton and Bagley

    2. Hali picked after Smith

    3. Booker picked after Okafor

Predicted NBA Outcome: Starter / Rotation Player C

Appendix:

1. Star: Markkanen

   1. Markkanen

      1. similar

         1. low ast% (still higher than Maluach)

         2. low stl% (still higher than Maluach)

         3. negative ast/tov (still higher than Maluach)

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.3 years older

         2. no combine data: likely shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. plays PF and not C

         4. orb%

         5. 2P%

         6. blk%

         7. rim_rate

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim finishing %, mid finishing %, dunk finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. to%

         2. FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100, pts/40

         3. pfr: lower risk of fouling out

         4. self creation: Unassisted rim %, mid %, three %, dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate

         2. decreased orb%

         3. increased ast% and decreased to%

         4. increased ast/tov: positive in NBA

         5. increased pts/40

         6. more offball: decreased unassisted 2%

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Williams, Clingan, Ayton, Lively

   1. Williams

      1. similar

         1. most statistically similar to Maluach

         2. height and wingspan

         3. dunksmade/40

         4. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.7 years older

         2. orb%

         3. FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100

         4. ftr

         5. unassisted mid%, mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. higher ast% (still low)

         2. blk% and stl%

         3. ast/tov

         4. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate

         2. increased ast% and decreased to%

         3. increased ast/tov: positive in NBA

   2. Clingan

      1. similar

         1. 3P%

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.5 years older

         2. orb%

         3. 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. lower dunk_rate

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim finishing % and mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. 1 inch taller with same wingspan

         2. much higher ast%, lower to%, and positive ast/tov (3x Maluach’s)

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. higher rim_rate and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. higher reb %

         2. lower ast%

         3. lower ast/tov (still positive at 1)

         4. lower blk%

         5. slight increase in 3P%

   3. Ayton

      1. similar

         1. no combine data

         2. blk%

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.1 years older

         2. lower orb%

         3. FT%

         4. rim_rate, dunk_rate, dunksmade/40

         5. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. higher orb%

         2. much higher ast%

         3. 3P% and 3pa/100

         4. stl%

         5. ast/tov (still negative)

         6. pfr

         7. shot creation: unassisted rim%, dunk%

         8. rim and dunk finishing%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. higher mid rate

         2. decreased orb% and drb%

         3. decreased ast%

         4. decreased blk%

         5. decreased shot creation: unassisted 2%

         6. decreased 3P% and 3 rate

   4. Lively

      1. similar

         1. 0.5 years older

         2. no combine data

         3. 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk rates

         6. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb% and drb%

         2. FT%, 3P%

         3. ftr

         4. much higher pfr

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. much higher ast% and ast/tov (more than 2x Maluach)

         2. blk% and stl%

         3. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. higher dunk rate (Luka effect?) and mid rate with much lower rim rate

         2. decreased blk%

         3. ast/tov steady at very high 1.6 (highest amongst neighbours in NBA)

         4. no 3s made

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Hayes, Bagley, Leaf, Smith

   1. Hayes

      1. similar

         1. 0.3 years older

         2. FT%

         3. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter and smaller wingspan

         2. much lower orb%

         3. lower ast% (miniscule 2.6% by far lowest amongst neighbours)

         4. somehow a high 13.9% to% to go along with the low ast%

         5. ast/tov an incredibly low 0.31

         6. no 3s attempted

         7. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. blk% and stl%

         2. ftr

         3. rim and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate decreased

         2. blk% decreased

         3. ast% increased (don’t think it could have decreased) and tov% decreased

         4. large ast/tov ratio increase (0.31 => 1)

         5. shot some 3s (not well at 26%)

   2. Bagley

      1. similar

         1. 0.5 years older

         2. no combine data

         3. exact same ast/tov

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. FT%, 2P%

         3. much lower blk%

         4. rim and dunk rate, dunksmade/40

         5. rim and mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. stl%

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk

         5. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. mid rate increased and rim rate decreased

         2. ast% decreased

         3. ast/tov increased (still negative at 0.82)

         4. 3P% huge decrease to 0.29

   3. Leaf

      1. similar

         1. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.3 years older

         2. wing sized not big

         3. orb%

         4. FT%

         5. blk%

         6. ftr

         7. decreased rim and dunk rate, increased mid rate

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. much higher ast% and ast/tov

         2. 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. stl%

         4. better shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         5. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased ast%

         2. decreased blk%

         3. 3P% dropped to 34%

   4. Smith

      1. similar

         1. FT%

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.5 years older

         2. shorter and smaller wingspan (a small C)

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. ast/tov

         6. rim and dunk rate, dunksmade/40

         7. dunk finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. drb%

         2. ast%

         3. 3P% and 3pa/100

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

         6. rim and mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate and increased mid rate

         2. ast% increased and ast/tov (now positive at 1.14)

         3. blk% and stl% decreased

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Okafor

   1. Okafor

      1. similar

         1. 0.7 years older

         2. no combine data

         3. rim finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. to%

         3. FT%, 2P%, no 3s

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. lower dunk rate, higher mid rate

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. stl%

         3. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         4. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT%

         2. shoots some 3s (poor 22%)

         3. decreased rim rate increased mid rate

         4. ast% decreased

         5. ast/tov still poor 0.52

         6. blk% decreased