Maxime Raynaud Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Fringe / Rotation Player
1. Draft Age
22.2 years (84th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 7' 0.25''
Wingspan: 7' 1.25''
NBA Size: C
3. NCAA Team Role:
NCAA Starter at C
bpm: 4.5 (14th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths:
1st in min_per, usg, pts/40
good orb%
good FT%, 3P% and 3pa/100
Flaws:
ast/tov of 0.69
below average blk% for C
low 2P%
very low dunk shooting % of 0.85
low dunksmade/40
4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age
Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
KNN Dist: 12 of 30
Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 28.25
NBA_Start% Rank: 28 of 30
BPM Rank: 26 of 30
WS/YEAR Rank: 30 of 30
VORP/YEAR Rank: 29 of 30
Overall:
averagely distant neighbours
very low production in NBA
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Kuzma
Rotation (VORP>=0): Bates-Diop, Leuer, Post
Fringe (VORP<0): Hervey, Hayward, Harangody, Robinson-Earl, Hummel, Murray
5. Analysis
Raynaud NCAA career
consistent: orb%, stl%, ast/tov, rim/dunk shooting %, 3P%
higher: FT%, blk%, 3pa/100
lower: 2P%, mid shooting %, dunksmade/40
Raynaud changed his game as a senior to be more of a stretch 5 shooting much more 3s
Most of Raynaud’s neighbours are wings due to his focus on 3 point shooting and lack of traditional C production compared to most C.
Kuzma is the lone starter with his wing dimensions. Raynaud actually has a NCAA shooting advantage (FT%, 3P%) as well as slightly higher stl%. Kuzma is still an inconsistent NBA shooter at 45%/33%/72% splits, but I find it unlikely a team starts Raynaud at the 4 instead of a more wing sized player with more consistent shooting.
The 2 neighbours that are similar small C size to Raynaud are Leuer and Post. Leuer has a positive VORP for his career as a bench big
Raynaud adv: orb%, blk%
Leuer adv: FT%, ast/tov, rim/dunk shooting%
similar: age, 2P%, 3P%
NBA: shooting 48%/33%/77%, blk% down
Post is a 2nd round rookie that has started 33% of NBA games and has a positive VORP. This would be a good outcome for Raynaud
Raynaud adv: 2 years younger, orb%, 3pa/100
Post adv: ast%, FT%, 3P%, ast/tov, rim rate, unassisted rim/mid/dunk%, dunk shooting%
NBA: shooting 45%/41%/78%
The rest of the fringe neighbours are more wing-sized rather than small C size like Raynaud.
Raynaud’s poor tradtional C stats: blk%, 2P% and especially poor dunk shooting % of 0.85 means that he will likely need to be a bench stretch 5 big. He will need to be a consistent 3 point shooter similar to his neighbours Leuer and Post. Raynaud’s fluctuating NCAA FT% and 3P%, which were lower than both Leuer and Post means he might not be able to shoot as well and can fall out of the rotation if his main skill isn’t as good.