Nique Clifford Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Fringe / Rotation Player
1. Draft Age
23.4 years (96th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 5.25''
Wingspan: 6' 8.00''
NBA Size: SG
3. NCAA Team Role:
NCAA Starter at PG/Wing/C
bpm: 10.4 (85th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths:
highest min_per on etam
highest usg and pts/g
high drb%
leading playmaker: ast% and ast/tov
above average 2P% and 3P%
above average mid shooting %
above average 3pa/100
Flaws:
4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age
Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
KNN Dist: 17 of 30
Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 28
NBA_Start% Rank: 27 of 30
BPM Rank: 30 of 30
WS/YEAR Rank: 28 of 30
VORP/YEAR Rank: 27 of 30
Overall:
averagely distant neighbours
very low production in NBA
Star: Klay
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Dosunmu
Rotation (VORP>=0): Post
Fringe (VORP<0): Carter, Patterson, Simpson, Newton, Bembry, Edwards, Williams-Goss
5. Analysis
Nique is one of the oldest players in this draft class and of the last 20 drafts. His production took a large leap (ast%, ast/tov, 2P%, FT%, rim shooting %, mid shooting %, dunksmade/40) as a senior in 2024 and a 5th year senior in 2025. Because of this, Nique is a prospect who likely had the largest age and experience advantages compared to other NCAA prospects that need to be taken in account. Fortunately some of his other stats: orb%, stl%, blk% were more consistent throughout his NCAA career.
His lone star neighbour, Klay Thompson is arguably the 2nd best 3 point shooter in NBA history. Klay was in a perfect system for his game next to the greatest 3 point shooter in NBA history and a defensive player of the year C playmaker. Klay was 2 years younger with the shooting (FT% and 3P%) NCAA advantage. Since Klay’s value is largely due to the 3 and not the other role player stats, his role and situation would be unlikely for Nique to replicate. Nique does have more layers to his game that Klay doesn’t possess.
Dosunmu is the lone starter and is 2 years younger with shorter height, but longer wingspan. Ayo usually starts in a multi guard lineup next to a lead playmaker Giddey. His ast% has dropped in the NBA, but ast/tov has risen to 2.38.
they have many similarities: FT%, 3P%, ast%, stl%
Nique has an advantage in orb%, 2P%, blk%
Ayo has been efficient in the NBA with 50%/36%/77% and would be a good outcome for Nique, but keep in mind that Nique at Ayo’s age was a Junior, with much worse efficiency than his current NCAA year. It’s unlikely that Nique reaches Ayo’s level and role in the NBA.
The lone rotation player is Post, a rookie stretch 5 that started games for the Warriors. Nique’s drb% is high, but his orb% and blk% is much lower than Post, who is considered an offensive 5 specializing in 3P shooting. This is an unlikely path for Nique.
Edwards and Williams-Goss had very short NBA careers. Patterson’s career was slightly longer and struggled shooting 33%/24%/72% splits. Patterson had very similar 3P% and FT% as Nique and was 0.6 years younger. Patterson had very similar stats to Nique in: ast%, ast/tov, orb% and is a risk case for Nique if the shooting is more similar to his junior year than his senior years.
Carter was the 13th pick last year and is PG size rather than SG size like Nique. He’s the closest neighbour to Nique and 1.1 years younger
Nique adv: ast%, ast/tov, mid shooting %
Carter adv: blk%, stl%, unassisted mid%
similar: 2P%, FT%, 3P%
Carter had better defensive stats in the NCAA and so far the stl% has translated, but not the blk%. They had identical NCAA shooting % and so far Carter has struggled in the NBA with 37%/29%/59% splits. Carter missed the beginning of his rookie season, so it’s unclear yet if it’s an outlier or an omen. Carter has been an offball player so far with decreased ast%, but increased ast/tov
Bembry is the fringe comparison that has had the longest career. Bembry was 1.4 years younger and is similar height and wingspan to Nique.
Nique advantages: FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100, mid shooting %
Bembry advantages: 1.4 years younger, ast/tov, unassisted mid/dunk %
similarities: ast%, orb%, stl%, blk%, dunksmade/40
Bembry has a slightly negative VORP for his career at -0.4, and would be a good outcome if he can replicate Bembry’s role player production with better 3P shooting
Simpson, and Newton were rookies last year that are PGs or combo guards that are similar roles to Nique. They are both PG sized with Simpson much smaller than Nique. They have both struggled with scoring efficiency very early in their careers.
A successful pathway to Ayo Dosunmu’s role as an efficient offball starter SG is possible, but I would consider unlikely as when Nique was Ayo’s age he was struggling with inefficiency as a junior in the NCAA.
An outcome like Bembry where Nique is a borderline rotation player with similar role production and his superior 3P NCAA shooting translates to make him a solid rotation player. Nique was 1.5 years older than Bembry and Nique’s junior efficiency numbers make it more likely that he isn’t much more efficient than Bembry.