Noa Essengue Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Wing Starter
1. Draft Age
18.5 years (1st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
German-BBL league
Eurocup (2nd level European cup similar to Europa League in European football)
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 10''
Wingspan: 7' 0.75''
NBA Size: tall Wing or small C
3. Team Role
Ratiopharm Ulm was 2 out of 17 in German league and 14 out of 20 in Eurocup
Ratiopharm was 3rd in ORtg in German league and tied for 5th in Eurocup
Strengths
3rd/4th in min/g in Germany/Eurocup
usg of 19.5 and 20
4th in pts/g
good orb%
decent blk% of 2.7%
stl% of 1.7% and 3.1%
ast/tov of 1 and 1.1
very high FTA/40 in German and Eurocup league
highest eDIF on team in Germany and Eurocup
Flaws
poor 3P%
below average FT%
4. Nearest Neighbours
Eurocup Data
Star: Porzingis
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Gortat, Capela, Schroder, Hayes
Rotation (VORP>=0):
Fringe (VORP<0): Zipser, Dadiet, Bonga, Musa
5. Analysis
Essengue has a very high WS/48 in both the German and Eurocup leagues, higher than all of his neighbours. At 18.5 years he is only a couple of days older than Flagg. He is younger than all of his neighbours and would be the among the youngest in the NCAA as well. Note that WS/48 had a very poor correlation to the NBA WS/48 in both the German (-0.51 corr) and Eurocup (0.1 corr) leagues, but this is in a small sample size with no recent stars drafted from the German league.
Porzingis is the lone star neighbour that was the starting C for a championship team last year. Essengue is younger by 1.4 years. Porzingis NBA specialty is as a unicorn stretch 5 that can shoot the 3 and block shots. Essengue’s blk% while good for a wing, doesn’t compare to his C neighbours that were NBA starters (Gortat, Capela, Porzingis). Essengue’s starting NBA role is likely not as a C, but as a wing.
Essengue’s wing role player production is solid (orb%, stl%, blk%, ast/tov) especially since he is a very young prospect. Unfortunately, Noa doesn’t have any starter NBA wings in his top 10 neighbours in the German or Eurocup league, but he does have some starter wing or small C neighbours in the Eurocup that were outside the 10 neighbours.
The FTA/40 stands out for Noa as it is much higher than all of the neighbours including Montiejunas, who was a big than a wing. FTA/40 has a correlation of 0.53 with the NBA equivalent, so Noa will likely get to the free throw line better than his neighbours. If Noa can get to the free throw line at a good rate in the NBA, this will boost his efficiency compared to most offball wing players.
The comparison to last year’s 1st pick, Risacher is interesting. Noa is 0.7 years younger than Risacher. In the same Eurocup league playing similar number of games and min/g, Noa had:
higher wing production: orb%, drb%, stl%, blk%, fta/40
better shooting: FG%, FT% (however much lower 3P% on lower 3pa/40)
same ast%, but with much lower tov% thus much higher ast/tov
other than 3P% which is undoubtedly important for an offball 3 and D wing, Noa was a better role player than Risacher in the Eurocup while being younger. Risacher is a negative VORP player very early in his career, but if Noa can shoot as Risacher did in the NBA so far (35%), he can potentially also be a offball wing starter.
Sekou was the same age as Noa and was drafted 15th. He had a smaller role on his team playing only 14.9 min/g
there are some similarities in stats: orb%, ast%, stl%, FG%
Sekou had advantage in blk%
Noa had large advantage in ast/tov and slight advantage in FT% and 3P%
Sekou disappointed in the NBA with large drops in shooting efficiency (39%/26%/69%) and drops in role player production (stl%, blk%, orb%)
Saric was much older
Saric advantages in orb%, ast%, FT%
Noa had advantages in stl%, FG%
similar: blk%, 3P%, ast/tov
Saric has had a solid career as an occasional starter with improved shooting % in the NBA
Montiejunas was 2.2 years older than Noa
a small big instead of wing, albeit with the same blk%
It honestly wouldn’t be absurd to suggest that Noa is a better prospect going forwards than 1st overall pick Risacher. Especially if Risacher’s main advantage, 3P%, is closer to his current NBA 35% than the French league 45%.
Sekou is a caution case of a young wing selected in the mid 1st disappointing, but Noa was in a more prominent Eurocup role, a better shooter and importantly got to the free throw line much better than any neighbours from the German or Eurocup league which would help his efficiency if it translates. Even if he is mediocre from 3, Noa’s youth, defensive role player stats and intriguing free throw attempt rate make him a possible starting wing especially if a team is willing to provide the same patience and opportunity afforded to young wings.