Noah Penda Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Fringe / Rotation Player
1. Draft Age
20.4 years (52th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
French-Jeep-Elite league
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 7.25''
Wingspan: 6' 11.50''
NBA Size: Wing
3. Team Role
Le Mans finished 6th out of 16 in French league
Strengths
led team in min/g
usg% of 18.6%
tied for 4th in pts/g
defensive stats: stl% and blk%
decent orb% for wing
good ast/tov of 1.6
Flaws
poor shooting: 44%/29%/67%
eDIF of 3.9 (some teammates had eDIF of 17.1)
4. Nearest Neighbours
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Risacher, Coulibaly, Batum
Rotation (VORP>=0): Yabusele, de Colo, Beaubois
Fringe (VORP<0): Sy, Ntilikina, Ajinca, Maledon
5. Analysis
The wing-like neighbours are: Risacher, Yabusele, Coulibaly and Batum. Penda is similar in age to Yabusele, but older than the other 3.
Batum would be an excellent outcome for Penda. He has had a long career as a starter and now rotation player as a 3 and D wing. Batum didn’t measure at the combine and may have better wing dimensions as Penda’s wingspan is just under 7 feet and would be a small wing compared to big wings like Kawhi or Durant with much longer wingspans. Batum, while 0.9 years younger, has a significant shooting and playmaking advantage over Penda. Penda’s main advantage over Batum is in blk% and rebounding so he may be more of a backup big than a 3 and D wing like Batum that can play SF or PF. It’s unlikely Penda reaches Batum’s level and role in the NBA.
Risacher and Coulibaly are recent lottery picks that have started most of time and have a negative VORP early on. They are both over 1 year younger than Penda. Penda does have an edge in ast%, ast/tov, and blk% on both while being much more inefficient as a shooter (except for Coulibaly from FT%). Risacher and Coulibaly have both been similar with mediocre efficiency in the NBA from FG%/FT%/3P%, so if Penda is expected to be worse than this as a wing, he likely doesn’t have a starter’s role as an older player.
Yabusele was drafted 16th overall, but only found an NBA rotation role this year after a stint in Europe. Penda has an ast%, ast/tov, and blk% advantage, but a significant disadvantage in shooting efficiency. Yabusele shot around 32% from 3 in his first 2 years in the NBA, but shot 38% this year after a 6 year NBA hiatus. If Penda doesn’t shoot effectively from 3P%, he may have to take the circuitous route to being a NBA rotation player that Yabusele did.
Penda’s skills in blk% over his wing neighbours make him a better small C while their efficient shooting make them better as 3 and D wing players. Penda is small for a wing and very small for a C. He has a very low FG% for a wing in the French league, lower than some of his PG neighbours in the French league, so efficiency is expected to be an issue in the NBA. FG% correlates strongly for the small sample of French league prospects, so poor FG% for a wing is likely to be an issue in the NBA. He has a good ast/tov for a wing, but with his poor shooting from 2P% and 3P% I struggle to see how he will have the gravity to utilize it. He might require a similar route as Yabusele to cement a NBA rotation spot.