Nolan Traore Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Fringe/Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 19.1 years (12th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• French-Jeep-Elite league

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 3.00''

• Wingspan: 6' 8.00''

• NBA Size: PG

3. Team Role

• Saint-Quentin finished 10 out of 16 in French league

  • Offensive rating: 11 out of 16

• Strengths

  • lead playmaker

    • very high ast% of 44.4% (highest on team)

    • very good ast/tov of 2.1

      • both among highest correlated stats from French league to NBA

  • very high usg of 30.2 (highest on team)

  • tied for 3rd highest min/g on team

  • has one of the lowest eDif (net ratings on team)

• Flaws

  • FG%/FT%/3P% all poor

  • eDIF (net rating) of -9, 2nd lowest on team with rotation minutes

4. Nearest Neighbours

1. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Fournier, Batum

2. Rotation (VORP>=0): Beaubois, de Colo

3. Fringe (VORP<0): Okobo, Maledon, Sy, Ntilikina, Saluan, Doumbouya

5. Analysis

1. Traore is an unlikely starter with poor shooting splits. Traore trails all neighbours in FG%, TS% and eFG. He seems to be a PG-sized version of Demin with the excellent playmaking, but poor shooting. However, Demin is wing sized with the potential to provide wing production and defence that Traore can’t as a PG. FG% has a strong correlation of 0.78 for French league prospects in a small sample. So the fact that Traore has the lowest FG% in the French league makes it unlikely he’ll be significantly more efficient in the NBA than poor shooting PG-sized neighbours: Okobo, Maledon and Ntilikina.

2. Traore has the lowest stl% of every neighbour on the list. He’s unlikely to be a provide surplus defensive value as a PG than his PG-sized neighbours.

3. Due to poor shooting, he would be limited to the PG spot as he would not provide much offball gravity as a SG. His path to the NBA rotation is as a backup PG, but would need to improve shooting to at least Beaubois level (44%/33%/81%) to remain. Beaubois had more defensive value (stl% and blk%) to operate offball, but Traore’s superior playmaking would lead to more onball opportunities if the shooting improves.

4. The 2 starters from the list: Batum is a wing with better defensive utility and was efficient as an offball player. Fournier is a SG with poor shooting in the French league, albeit better than Traore. Fournier’s French league splits were: 43%/28%/75% and improved in the NBA to: 44%/37%/80%. If Traore can make the same shooting improvement in the NBA as Fournier, he has the potential to be a rotation player or starter with his size to be a PG or small SG.

5. Traore’s profile is too similar to Maledon with better playmaking to put as a rotation player. 39% FG% in the French league is a tough sell for any prospect, particularly a French league PG which has a recent history of poor NBA shooters. Right now the French ast% and ast/tov correlate strongly with the NBA equivalents, but it’ll be interesting to see if Traore’s much higher ast% compared to his neighbours translates to the NBA. Traore wasn’t even the highest ast% in the French league this year as TJ Shorts II somehow has a 59.8% ast%. Trae Young led the NBA in 2024-25 with a 46.5% ast%. The very high ast% might be more indicative of the style of basketball that is played in the French league or the generosity of their scorekeepers. Whatever the case, Traore will be a good test case for future French league PGs as a comparable as the recent French league PGs the last decade have been underwhelming. I just wouldn’t want to be the team drafting Traore to find out.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Fringe/Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Traore has a significant ast% and ast/tov over all neighbours except for Okobo, where Traore still has a notable advantage.

   1. Okobo is older by 1.6 years

   2. Okobo has significantly better shooting splits: FG%/3P%/FT% of 49%/42%/84%in the French league.

   3. This didn’t translate to the NBA as he shot: 40%/32%/74%

   4. similar stl% and HOB% (deflections) in French league, likely similar level defenders

   5. Okobo ast% dropped significantly in NBA

2. Maledon is a close age and physical comparison to Traore

   1. similar poor shooting at FG% and 3P%, significantly higher FT%

   2. remained poor in NBA with 37%/31%/79%

   3. similar stl%, but much lower HOB%

3. Beaubois

   1. shorter with longer wingspan

   2. 2.2 years older

   3. better FG%, similar 3P%, worse FT%

   4. shooting % improved in NBA to 44%/33%/81%

   5. much higher stl%

4. de Colo

   1. much older by 2.9 years

   2. better shooter than Traore

5. Ntilikina

   1. similar age

   2. better from FG% and 3P%, worse from FT%

      1. FG% and 3P% dropped in NBA