Rasheer Fleming Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player Wing / C

Drew

May 31, 2025

1. Summer League

Pre Draft

1. Draft Age

20.9 years (61st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Junior

2. Physical Tools

Height without shoes: 6' 8.25''
Wingspan: 7' 5.25''
NBA Size: small C/ long Wing

3. NCAA Team Role:

NCAA starter at C / Wing
bpm: 6.8 (38th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths:
- 2nd in usg and pts/40
- high 2P% and 3P%
- above average blk% and stl%
- above average rim shooting%
- above average dunksmade/40
- above average rim rate
- above average 3pa/100
Flaws:
- below average ast%
- negative ast/tov ratio
- very low mid shooting %: 0.23
- limited shot creation: low unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
- KNN Dist: 13 of 30
- Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 24.75
  - NBA_Start% Rank: 26 of 30
  - BPM Rank: 25 of 30
  - WS/YEAR Rank: 26 of 30
  - VORP/YEAR Rank: 22 of 30
- Overall:
  - averagely close neighbours
  - low production in NBA

Star: Vucevic
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hendricks
Rotation (VORP>=0): Wagner, Spellman
Fringe (VORP<0): Lydon, Wieskamp, Livers, Felix, Robinson-Earl, Strawther

5. Analysis

Fleming is a Wing prospect with a very long wingspan indicating the potential to function as a C. He is a junior and an older prospect than most 1st round picks at 20.9 years age. Because of this, it’s essential to attempt to determine if the age and experience advantage in the NCAA led to better production than their younger years. Older prospects aren’t going to have the age and experience advantage and instead will have a disadvantage.

Fleming had a consistent increase in minutes and scoring role (usg and pts/40) from freshman to junior. He was not a very promising prospect as a 18.9 year old freshman with a bpm of 1.89, but improved as a 19.9 year old sophomore with a bpm of 5.62.

The main differences in his soph and junior production are:

orb% dropped: 10.9% => 7.6%
ast% rose: 5.9% => 8.5% (but to% also rose)
FT% rose: 0.61 => 0.74
blk% dropped: 6.8% => 4.9%
stl% rose: 1.8% => 2.6%
ftr dropped: 36.7 => 28.5
pfr dropped: 3.9 => 3.3
mid shooting % dropped: 0.42 => 0.23
3pa/100 rose: 6.55 => 8.54

The constants between soph and junior:

ast/tov
rim and dunk shooting %
dunksmade/40
shot creation: unassisted rim/3/dunk %

Based on Fleming’s soph and junior years, he is a wing with good defensive output ,not a rim protecting C with that blk%. He is best offball as he can dunk and finish at rim, but has limited shot creation (unassisted %). The FT% and 3P% is the biggest concern for Fleming’s potential as a starting wing as his junior year was his best and might not be sustainable based on his freshman and sophomore years.

Vucevic is the star neighbour as a primarily offensive C with mediocre rim protection. He had similar NCAA blk% as Fleming and it has dropped in the NBA to only 2.4%. His 3P% has been decent for a C at 0.35. Vuc was a better rebounder and playmaker than Fleming while Fleming has the edge in 2P%. Vuc has been a long-term starter in the NBA as a stretch 5 and even made all star teams as the primary scoring option on low-seeded playoff teams, but is likely better for a competitive team as a 6th man of the year scoring C rather than starter. Fleming has more wing skills and better offball cutting to the rim so it’s unlikely teams would want him as a starting C with his mediocre blk%, orb% and drb% compared to other starting C. A Wing role with occasional minutes as a small ball C is a more likely path than Vucevic’s.
Fleming has similar production to Hendricks, with a much longer wingspan. But he has a lower blk%, is 1.3 years older, and is worse in some key role player areas (ast/tov, FT%). Hendricks is promising as a NBA sophomore in a 3 and D Starting Wing role before he suffered a serious injury. Hendricks would be a good, realistic outcome for Fleming.
Fleming’s floor projection is Wagner as a primarily bench C with occasional starts at PF or C. Fleming has advantages in several key stats for a role playing C (orb%, 2P%, significantly higher blk%, ast/tov, dunksmade/40) which means that he has the floor of a solid backup big, with more potential to start as a Wing.
Other neighbours lack the pterodactyl wingspan of Fleming which leads to a advantage in several areas for a offball Wing (2P%, blk%, stl%, dunksmade/40)
The 3P% is going to be a great determiner for Fleming if he ends up in a role like Hendricks as a starting Wing or Wagner as a bench C/PF. Overall Fleming is a safe 3 and D wing role player archetype with unlikely ceiling for more unless he can be an effective starting C long-term for a competitive team.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player Wing / C

Star: Vucevic
1. Vucevic
  1. similar
    1. 0.3 years younger
    2. taller with shorter wingspan
    3. FT%
    4. blk%
    5. pfr
    6. pts/40
    7. unassisted mid%
    8. rim shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. large 2P% difference
    2. 3P%
    3. stl%
    4. 3pa/100
    5. rim rate
    6. dunksmade/40
    7. dunk shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. bpm
    2. orb%
    3. ast%
    4. ftr
    5. ast/tov
    6. unassisted rim/dunk%
    7. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. decreased rim rate, increased mid rate
    2. ftr large drop
    3. unassisted 2% large drop
    4. ast% up and tov% down
    5. ast/tov up to 1.71
    6. pts/40 up
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Hendricks
1. Hendricks
  1. similar
    1. closest statistical match
    2. bpm
    3. orb%
    4. ast%
    5. FT% and 3P%
    6. ftr
    7. pts/40
    8. 3pa/100
    9. dunks shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. 2P% large difference
    2. stl%
    3. pfr
    4. rim rate
    5. unassisted mid %
    6. rim shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. 1.3 years younger
    2. same height with much longer wingspan
    3. blk%
    4. ast/tov
    5. rim rate
    6. unassisted rim/3/dunk %
    7. dunksmade/40
    8. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. rim rate decreased and 3 rate increased
    2. rebounding increased
    3. ast % decreased
    4. usg decreased
Rotation (VORP>=0): Wagner, Spellman
1. Wagner
  1. similar
    1. 0.2 years older
    2. taller with much shorter wingspan
    3. 3P% and 3pa/100
    4. rim rate
    5. unassisted 3/dunk %
    6. rim shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. orb%
    2. ast%
    3. FT% and 2%
    4. blk% and stl%
    5. much lower ast/tov
    6. unassisted mid %
    7. dunksmade/40
  3. advantages
    1. pts/40
    2. unassisted rim %
    3. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 3P% drop to 0.32
    2. FT% up to 0.81
    3. ast% up
    4. ast/tov large increase to 1
2. Spellman
  1. similar
    1. age
    2. 3P% and 3pa/100
    3. blk%
    4. ast/tov
  2. disadvantages
    1. same height with shorter wingspan
    2. ast% much lower
    3. FT%
    4. 2P% much lower
    5. stl%
    6. pts/40
    7. rim rate
    8. unassisted mid%
    9. dunksmade/40
    10. much lower rim/dunk shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. bpm
    2. orb%
    3. unassisted rim%
    4. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. FT% up to 0.77
    2. 3P% down to 0.37
    3. decreased rebounding
    4. ast% up
    5. ast/tov up to 1.11
    6. blk% down
Fringe (VORP<0): Lydon, Wieskamp, Livers, Felix, Robinson-Earl, Strawther
1. Lydon
  1. similar
    1. bpm
    2. 0.3 years older
    3. orb%
    4. 3P%
    5. blk%
    6. rim shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. same height with much shorter wingspan
    2. 2P% much lower
    3. stl%
    4. pts/40
    5. 3pa/100
    6. rim rate
    7. unassisted mid%
    8. dunksmade/40
    9. mid/dunk shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. ast% and ast/tov
    2. FT% and ftr
    3. pfr
    4. unassisted rim/3/dunk%
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 26 career NBA games
    2. massive FT% drop from 0.84 to 0.33
2. Wieskamp
  1. similar
    1. ftr
    2. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %
  2. disadvantages
    1. 0.9 years older
    2. small wing size: much shorter and smaller wingspan
    3. orb%
    4. FT%
    5. 2P% much lower
    6. blk% and stl%
    7. rim rate
    8. dunksmade/40
    9. rim shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. bpm
    2. ast% and ast/tov
    3. 3P%
    4. pts/40
    5. 3pa/100
    6. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 38 career NBA games
    2. large FT% drop to 0.54
    3. large 3P% drop to 0.31
3. Livers
  1. similar
    1. 3P%
    2. unassisted rim %
  2. disadvantages
    1. 2 years older
    2. SG size
    3. orb%
    4. large 2P% diff
    5. blk% and stl%
    6. pts/40
    7. rim rate and rim shooting %
    8. dunksmade/40
  3. advantages
    1. bpm
    2. ast% and ast/tov
    3. FT%
    4. pfr
    5. 3pa/100
    6. unassisted mid/dunk %
    7. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. FT% and 3P% drop
    2. 3 rate large increase
    3. rebounding % and ast% down
4. Felix
  1. similar
    1. orb%
    2. ast%
    3. 3P%
    4. stl%
    5. ast/tov
    6. rim rate
    7. unassisted mid/3 %
  2. disadvantages
    1. bpm
    2. 1.9 years older
    3. SG size
    4. FT% and 2P%
    5. blk%
    6. pts/40
    7. 3pa/100
    8. rim/dunk shooting %
  3. advantages
    1. unassisted rim/dunk %
    2. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. 7 career NBA games
5. Robinson-Earl
  1. similar
    1. bpm
    2. 0.3 years younger
    3. orb%
    4. FT%
    5. pts/40
    6. rim shooting %
  2. disadvantages
    1. SG/small Wing: shorter with much smaller wingspan
    2. 2P% and 3P% and 3pa/100
    3. blk% and stl%
    4. rim rate
    5. unassisted mid%
    6. dunksmade/40
  3. advantages
    1. ast% and ast/tov
    2. unassisted rim/dunk%
    3. mid shooting %
  4. NBA stat changes
    1. FT% up to 0.8
    2. 3P% up to 0.34
    3. rim rate down, 3 rate up
    4. rebounding % down
    5. ast% down
    6. unassisted 2% down
    7. usg large decrease
6. Strawther
  1. Strawther
    1. similar
      1. 0.3 years older
      2. 3P%
      3. ast/tov
      4. pts/40
      5. unassisted mid %
    2. disadvantages
      1. bpm
      2. SG: shorter with much smaller wingspan
      3. orb%
      4. ast%
      5. 2P%
      6. blk% stl%
      7. rim rate
      8. unassisted dunk %
      9. dunksmade/40
      10. rim finishing %
    3. advantages
      1. FT%
      2. pfr
      3. pts/40
      4. 3pa/100
      5. unassisted rim/3 %
      6. mid finishing %
    4. NBA stat changes
      1. 3P% dropped to 0.33
      2. ast% rose
      3. ast/tov rose to 1.57

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