Ryan Kalkbrenner Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player / Fringe

1. Draft Age

• 23.4 years (96th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 7' 1.00''

• Wingspan: 7' 6.00''

• NBA Size: C

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at C

• bpm: 11 (89th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • 3rd in min_per

  • 2nd in usg

  • 1st in pts/40

  • high 2P%

  • decent 3P%

  • good blk%

  • ast/tov over 1

  • high rim shooting %, dunksmade/40

• Flaws:

  • below average FT% and stl%

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 23 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 15.25

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 16 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 22 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 9 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 14 of 30

  • Overall:

    • moderately distant neighbours

    • average production in NBA

1. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Bridges, Hunter, Murray, Hachimura, Hart

2. Rotation (VORP>=0): Toppin

3. Fringe (VORP<0): Watson, Brown, Johnson, Miller

5. Analysis

1. Kalkbrenner is one of the oldest prospects of the last 20 years, so his previous years need to be analyzed closely to see if he benefited from age and experience advantage

   1. consistent: orb% , FT%, 2P%, blk%, stl%, 3P%, rim shooting %, unassisted mid/rim %

   2. higher: ast%, ast/tov, dunksmade/40

   3. lower: mid shooting % dropped to 38% from very high 51% and 54% in Jr and Sr years

   4. Overall his game has been fairly consistent in his NCAA years

2. Kalkbrenner has a very strange set of neighbours as a C taller and with a longer wingspan than Kessler. All of the starter neighbours are wings that are at least 1 year younger than him. He has advantages over all (except Murray) in the usual C areas: orb%, 2P%, blk%, rim shooting %, dunskmade/40. And has disadvantages in the wing favoured stats: FT%, stl%, ast/tov, 3P%. While he has some similarities to wings that traditional Cs do not, he still excels over these wings in areas that Cs need to, which is a good sign for Kalkbrenner.

3. The lone rotation player and closest neighbour is Toppin, who plays a more similar role to Kalkbrenner as a backup big for the Pacers. Toppin currently has a prominent bench role in the NBA Finals and would be a good outcome for Kalkbrenner. Obi is 1.1 years younger, and is likely not a true C size (didn’t measure at the combine).

   1. Kalkbrenner adv: orb%, blk%, rim rate

   2. Toppin adv: ast%, 3P%, stl%, 3pa/100, mid shooting %, dunksmade/40

   3. similar: 2P%, FT%, ast/tov, rim/dunk shooting %

   4. NBA: blk% down, shooting 52%/35%/77%

   5. Toppin is more of a PF while Kalkbrenner is a C. Toppin’s shooting has allowed him to function as a backup big even with his poor NBA rim protection. Kalkbrenner brings the C stats, and if he can shoot well enough can function in a similar role to Toppin.

4. The fringe neighbours are all wing sized and unlikely outcomes for Kalkbrenner.

5. Kalkbrenner is a potential stretch 5 that is C sized and can provide traditional C production (blk%, orb%, 2P%) with flashes of shooting (FT%, 3P%, mid shooting %). He is an older prospect, but has been consistent in many important areas in his NCAA career. A rotation role as a traditional bench C in limited minutes is possible with some upside for a prominent bench role like Toppin if he can shoot consistently enough.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player / Fringe

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