Thomas Sorber Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Starter

1. Draft Age

• 19.5 years (25th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 9.25''

• Wingspan: 7' 6.00''

• NBA Size: small C

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at C

• bpm: 7.6 (48th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • leading scorer (tied for highest usg and pts/40 on team)

  • decent FT% for C

  • good blk% and stl%

  • positive ast/tov

• Flaws:

  • low 3P%

  • average rim and mid finishing %

  • limited shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk %

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 4 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Sum: 6.25

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 3 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 3 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 10 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 9 of 30

  • Overall:

    • very close neighbours

    • very good production in NBA

1. Star: Banchero, Beal

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Gueye, Harris, Johnson

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Metu, Minott, Looney

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Roby, Jackson

5. Analysis

Sorber is a tweener small C with a long wingspan and just enough of a mix of Wing and C production to be a potential NBA starter as a role playing defensive C. He has wing skills like excellent stl%, positive ast/tov and a decent FT% to hope for NBA 3 point shooting. His blk% and 2P% are good enough to be a NBA C. Sorber showed limited NCAA shot creation, but in the NBA that was unlikely to be a factor.

One factor that will cause Sorber to drop from the starting lineup to the bench is if he struggles from 2P% like he did vs top 100 NCAA competition.

Sorber had one of the largest drops in production in the 2025 draft class when removing non-top 100 competition. This competition would be the least comparable to the level he will need to match up against if he is to be a starting C. There’s no Wemby or Jokic in the NCAA. Sorber’s defensive and playmaking stats dropped a bit, but the major drop was in 2P% particularly at rim finishing%, dunk finishing % and dunksmade/40. A rim finishing % of 0.59 in the NCAA is below average overall and very low for a starting C, so in the NBA he will provide almost no scoring offensively unless he can start shooting from 3.

Many of Sorber’s neighbours are wings as Sorber does have wing skills, but he will not be a wing in the NBA. The best neighbour comparison is Looney.

Looney has oscillated from starting C to bench big for the Warriors for his career as a very low usage, defensive role playing C that provides almost nothing offensively other than screening and offensive rebounding. Sorber is taller, with a longer wingspan which means that he is a superior shot blocker and much better finishing from 2P particularly at the rim. Looney appears to be Sorber’s floor with upside if he ends up shooting 3P in the NBA.

Sorber did undergo season-ending foot surgery, which for a C prospect isn’t encouraging especially since he only grades as a role player with a low ceiling. Barring that risk, Sorber seems to be the safest bet in this draft class to succeed as a starting C as a defensive role-playing prospect since defensive stats (blk%, orb%) and playmaking stats (ast%, ast/tov) correlate stronger from NCAA to NBA than shooting efficiency stats.

Predicted NBA Outcome: C Starter

Appendix:

1. Star: Banchero, Beal

   1. Banchero

      1. similar

         1. 0.1 years younger

         2. bpm

         3. no combine: Wing size

         4. ast%

         5. FT%

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. unassisted shot creation %: rim, mid, 3

         8. mid range shooting %

         9. ftr

         10. dunksmade/40

         11. rim/mid/finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. bpm

         3. 2P%

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. playmaking: ast/tov, ast%

         6. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. 3P%

         2. ast/tov

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         6. rim finishing %

      4. Banchero NBA changes

         1. playmaking improved

         2. ftr increased

         3. rim rate decreased and mid rate increased

   2. Beal

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.5 years younger

         3. stl%

         4. ftr

         5. ast/tov

      2. disadvantages

         1. SG size

         2. orb%

         3. ast%

         4. 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. pts/40

         7. rim rate

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim/mid/dunk finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P%

         2. 3pa/100

         3. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate and increased mid rate

         2. 3P% improved to 0.38

         3. ast% and usg large increase

         4. ast/tov increase

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Gueye, Harris, Johnson

   1. Gueye

      1. similar

         1. slightly taller with shorter wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.1 years older

         2. bpm

         3. FT%, 2P%

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. ast/tov

         6. rim rate

         7. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         3. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate and increased 3 rate

         2. 0.27 from 3

         3. large ast% and usg decrease

         4. ast/tov rose to 2

   2. Harris

      1. similar

         1. 0.6 years younger

         2. mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. small Wing size

         3. orb%

         4. ast% and ast/tov

         5. 2P%

         6. blk% and stl%

         7. rim rate

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim/dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P%

         2. pts/40

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted rim/mid %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% and 3P% increased

         2. decreased rim rate and increased 3 rate

         3. decreased rebounding

         4. increased ast%

         5. decreased blk%

         6. ast/tov increased to 1.71

   3. Johnson

      1. similar

         1. 0.3 years older

         2. FT%

         3. ftr

         4. ast/tov

         5. pts/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. SG size

         3. orb%

         4. ast%

         5. 2P%

         6. blk% and stl%

         7. rim rate

         8. dunksmade/40

         9. rim and dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. 3P% and 3pa/100

         2. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         3. mid shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. ast/tov increased to 1.69

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Metu, Minott, Looney

   1. Metu

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. 3pa/100

         3. unassisted rim/3/dunk %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.7 years older

         2. shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. ast%

         5. 2P%

         6. blk% and stl%

         7. ast/tov

         8. rim rate

         9. dunk finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. 3P%

         2. pts/40

         3. unassisted mid %

         4. much higher dunksmade/40

         5. rim/mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rim rate and increased 3 rate

         2. decreased ast%

         3. decreased blk%

         4. decreased usg

   2. Minott

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. no combine

         3. FT% and 3P%

         4. stl%

         5. pts/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1 year older

         2. ast%

         3. 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. 3pa/100

         6. rim/mid/dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. rim rate

         3. unassisted rim/dunk %

         4. much higher dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. large 3P% increase to 0.34

         2. decreased rim rate and increased 3 rate

         3. orb% decreased

         4. ast% decreased

         5. asst/tov rose to 1.5

   3. Looney

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.1 years younger

         3. stl%

         4. ast/tov

         5. 3pa/100

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. FT%

         4. much lower 2P%

         5. blk%

         6. pts/40

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim and mid shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. much higher 3P%

         3. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% large drop to 0.18

         2. large increase in 2P% to 0.59

         3. increased rebounding

         4. increased ast%

         5. decreased stl% and blk%

         6. large usg decrease

         7. large ast/tov increase to 2.67

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Roby, Jackson

   1. Roby

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. stl%

         3. ast/tov

         4. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.9 years older

         2. shorter with smaller wingspan

         3. orb%

         4. ast%

         5. FT% and 2P%

         6. blk%

         7. pts/40

         8. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. 3P%

         2. 3pa/100

         3. unassisted rim/mid %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate dropped

         2. ast% dropped

         3. usg dropped

   2. Jackson

      1. similar

         1. orb%

         2. stl%

         3. ast/tov

         4. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 0.9 years older

         2. no combine: wing size

         3. FT% and 2P%

         4. blk%

         5. rim rate

         6. dunk shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 3P%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

         7. much higher dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 0.29

         2. rebounding dropped

         3. ast% dropped