Tre Johnson Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: 6th Man / Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 19.3 years (18th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 4.75''

• Wingspan: 6' 10.25''

• NBA Size: SG

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at SG/Wing

• bpm: 3.7 (10th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • leading scorer: highest usg and pts/40

  • secondary playmaker: ast/tov=1.5

  • high 3P rate, 3P%, FT%

  • above average shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk

• Flaws:

  • low 2P%: 0.45

  • low bpm

  • very low orb%

  • below average stl%

  • low rim/mid/dunk finishing %

  • very low dunksmade/40

  • below average rim rate

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 16 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 16.5

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 17 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 20 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 14 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 15 of 30

  • Overall:

    • averagely distant neighbours

    • average production in NBA

1. Star: Williams, Murray

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Harris

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Monk, Lamb, Beasley

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Robinson, Branham, Howard, Edwards

5. Analysis

Johnson is a SG 3 point specialist with some playmaking upside. He is an excellent shooter with the highest FT% and 3P% on this list. He had the lowest 2P% at 0.45 amongst the neighbours including much shorter players because of his low rim rate so unless it improves dramatically, he likely won’t have a significant onball role in the midrange and will be relied on as a offball 3 point shooter. He also doesn’t provide any of the athletic and defensive role player stats such as orb%, stl% and dunksmade/40.

I predict 2 paths for Johnson to be a valuable NBA starter or rotation player.

1. continued 3P% efficiency, but 3P% had one of the lowest correlation from NCAA to NBA at 0.33.

2. the playmaking translates with a huge increase in ast%

The NBA stats are the blank stats in Johnson’s column and the filled stats are NCAA.

1. The 2 stars: Williams and Murray have the benefit of being secondary scorers and playmakers next to 2 MVPs (SGA and Jokic). I also suspect Johnson would need to be primarily offball to an elite scorer and playmaker in order to maximize his value, but he may not have the luxury.

2. Williams is a big SG with a much longer wingspan and is more well rounded than Johnson. His wingspan provides more defensive value and is far superior at scoring from 2P% as he is more athletic and can get to the rim and dunk more.

3. Murray’s projection is a far more realistic outcome for Johnson to aim for. Murray is likely smaller than Johnson and were very similar in multiple key areas: age, defensive (blk% and stl%), 3P% and rim rate. But Murray has the benefit of playing with Jokic, the greatest big playmaker in the NBA and experienced massive increases in ast% and ast/tov in the NBA. Johnson was a better NCAA playmaker than Murray, but he won’t necessarily get the cheat code of playing next to Jokic.

4. Harris is a solid starting 3 and D SG that is a worse shooter (FT% and 3P%), but is well rounded defensively (stl% and blk%) and athletically (orb% and dunksmade/40) that Johnson isn’t. He is simply a different archetype to Johnson and these role player stats correlate better from NCAA to NBA than efficient shooting.

5. The rotation players are more realistic comparables to Johnson. Monk is very similar in age and has the same shot profile as Johnson. Monk was more athletic, could dunk more, but was a worse playmaker. He improved his playmaking significantly in the NBA and is a perennial 6th man of the year candidate or occasional starter. Monk is a realistic outcome for Johnson as he is a superior NCAA playmaker.

6. Lamb is similar to a bench version of Harris. He is a worse shooter than Johnson, but better at the role player skills. His archetype is less likely than Monk’s for Johnson to achieve

7. Beasley is a 3 point specialist without the playmaking of Monk. Johnson has a higher FT% and similar 3P% so this is a very realistic offball role for Johnson to reach. His shot has translated to the NBA as he has shot 39% in his career.

8. The 2 fringe players that Johnson are at risk of emulating are Branham and Howard. Robinson was an older and much worse shooter while Edwards was an older SG stuck in a PG body so they are worse prospects than Johnson.

9. Branham is a similar age and size to Johnson and had very similar FT% and 3P% to Beasley in the NCAA. However the 3P% is only 34% early on in his career as a reminder that 3P% is one of the lowest correlated stats that translate from NCAA to the NBA.

10. Howard is another similar prospect to Johnson with a similar athleticism level (dunksmade/40 and orb%). Howard did have a lower 3P% and FT%, but still decent at 37% and 80%. His shot has not translated yet in his early career as he is only shooting 29% from 3.

11. Johnson’s optimistic scenario is he gets to play next to an MVP that optimizes his shooting and playmaking a la Jamal Murray. If I can guarantee that I would consider moving Johnson up to a solid starter level. The next Malik Monk as a 6th man of the year candidate is a much more likely scenario especially since ast/tov had a correlation of 0.65, which was 2x that of 3P%). If his playmaking doesn’t translate there is risk he becomes either Beasley (if the 3P% translates) or Branham/Howard (if 3P% doesn’t).

Predicted NBA Outcome: 6th Man / Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Star: Williams, Murray

   1. Williams

      1. similar

         1. 3P%

         2. unassisted mid% and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.9 years older

         2. FT%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. unassisted rim%, dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. 4 inches in wingspan

         2. orb% and drb%

         3. ast% and ast/tov

         4. 2P%

         5. blk% and stl%

         6. ftr

         7. much higher rim rate and dunksmade/40

         8. higher rim finishing % and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. higher mid rate and lower mid rate

         2. lower ast%, but higher ast/tov

         3. higher dunksmade/40

   2. Murray

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. blk% and stl%

         3. ftr

         4. 3P%

         5. rim rate

         6. mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. no combine: likely PG size, shorter and smaller wingspan

         2. FT%

         3. ast/tov (negative)

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim%, 3%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. higher orb% and drb%

         3. 2P%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim finishing %, dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. increased mid rate

         2. increased unassisted 3%, decreased unassisted 2%

         3. large increase in ast%: 10.1% while decreasing to%: 4%

         4. massive increase in ast/tov: 0.94 => 2.35

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Harris

   1. Harris

      1. similar

         1. 0.5 years older

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. rim and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter and smaller wingspan

         2. 3P%

         3. shot creation: unassisted mid/rim/3%

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. 2P%

         3. much higher blk% and stl%

         4. ftr

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted dunk% and dunksmade/40 and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. decreased rebounding and ast%

         2. decreased stl% and blk%

         3. increased ast/tov%

         4. increased 3P% to 37%

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Monk, Lamb, Beasley

   1. Monk

      1. similar

         1. 0.1 years older

         2. orb%

         3. 3P%

         4. stl%

         5. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk %

      2. disadvantages

         1. no combine: likely shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. FT%

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/3/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. 2P%

         2. blk%

         3. ftr

         4. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. large increase in ast%: 7.5% and ast/tov to 2

   2. Lamb

      1. similar

         1. 0.7 years older

         2. height and wingspan

         3. shot profile: rim/mid/3/dunk %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT% and 3P% and 3pa/100

         3. negative ast/tov

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. 2P% large advantage

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. increased drb%

         2. increased ast% and large ast/tov increase to 2

   3. Beasley

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.3 years older

         3. 3P%

         4. stl%

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. lower ast% and higher to%

         3. negative ast/tov

         4. FT%

         5. blk%

         6. 3pa/100

         7. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/3/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. much higher orb%

         2. 2P%

         3. ftr

         4. rim rate

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim finishing % and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. increased 3 rate and decreased rim rate

         2. decreased orb% and drb%

         3. large increase in ast/tov to 2

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Robinson, Branham, Howard, Edwards

   1. Robinson

      1. similar

         1. orb% and drb%

         2. 3P%

         3. stl%

      2. disadvantages

         1. 2 years older

         2. shorter wingspan

         3. FT%

         4. blk%

         5. ast/tov

         6. 3pa/100

         7. shot creation: unassisted rim/mid/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. 2P%

         3. rim rate

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. mid and dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. massive TS% decrease: 0.6 => 0.46

         2. massive FT%, 2P% and 3P% decrease

         3. massive ast% decrease: 8.8%

   2. Branham

      1. similar

         1. younger by 0.2 years

         2. height and wingspan

         3. 3P%

         4. identical blk% and stl%

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. FT%

         3. much lower 3pa/100

         4. unassisted 3%

      3. advantages

         1. orb%

         2. 2P%

         3. dunksmade/40

         4. rim/mid/dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 34%

         2. 3 rate increased

         3. orb% decreased

         4. ast% decreased

         5. ast/tov increased

   3. Howard

      1. similar

         1. 0.5 years older

         2. no combine: likely also SG sized

         3. identical orb% and drb%

         4. ast/tov

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim finishing and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast%

         2. FT% and 3P%

         3. much lower stl%

         4. shot creation: unassisted rim/3/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. 2P%

         2. much higher blk%

         3. 3pa/100

         4. dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. FT% dropped

         2. orb% increased

         3. ast% decreased

         4. 3P% dropped to 0.29

   4. Edwards

      1. similar

         1. orb% and drb%

         2. 2P%

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 2 years

         2. no combine: likely smaller and PG size

         3. FT% and 3P%

         4. negative ast/tov

         5. much lower dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. stl%

         3. much higher 3pa/100

         4. higher rim rate

         5. higher unassisted 3%

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. shot only 0.3 from 3

         2. FT% dropped

         3. ast% dropped by 7.9%

         4. ast/tov rose to 1.75 from 0.92