Tyrese Proctor Draft Analysis
NBA Projection: Fringe / Rotation Player
1. Draft Age
21.2 years (67th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
2. Physical Tools
Height without shoes: 6' 4.25''
Wingspan: 6' 7.25''
NBA Size: PG or small SG
3. NCAA Team Role:
NCAA Starter at SG
bpm: 7 (40th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)
Strengths:
2nd in min_per
3rd in pts/g
good ast/tov
high 3P% and 3pa/100
high mid shooting %
Flaws:
usg = 18.7%
low ast% for PG
low orb%
low FT%
below average stl%
low rim shooting %
low dunksmade/40
4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age
Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:
KNN Dist: 1 of 30
Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 21
NBA_Start% Rank: 19 of 30
BPM Rank: 18 of 30
WS/YEAR Rank: 24 of 30
VORP/YEAR Rank: 23 of 30
Overall:
closest neighbours
below average production in NBA
Star: Herro
Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Bey, Dick, da Silva
Rotation (VORP>=0): McCain, Lamb
Fringe (VORP<0): Miller, Thomas, Wilson
5. Analysis
Proctor has been a good playmaker throughout his NCAA career, but played more offball as a junior next to Flagg and Kon with a sharp drop in his ast%. Proctor’s 3P% has steadily risen, while his FT% has steadily fell so his shooting is inconsistent. On 2P%, Proctor is poor at the rim, but good at mid range albeit on a low rate. Proctor doesn’t provide surplus defensive stats or rebounding stats and the large majority of his value is likely going to be on the offensive end. It’s possible there is PG upside there with his higher ast% and high ast/tov in his earlier NCAA years, but a offball SG role focusing on 3P shooting is his likely role.
Herro is the lone star that began as a 6th man and emerged as an all star last year. Herro is 1.8 years younger and similar height with shorter wingspan.
Proctor adv: 3P%, ast/tov
Herro adv: FT%, ast%, rim shooting %
Bey didn’t measure at the combine, and likely has a physical tools and defensive advantage over Proctor. Bey provided more ancillary stats with his size (orb%, blk%)
Dick is a young starter that is younger, taller and with a longer wingspan than Proctor. Proctor provides more playmaking while Dick provides more ancillary skills (stl%, orb%). Proctor has more shot creation than Dick. Dick has been a negative VORP player early on in his career with splits of 42%/36%/86%. With Dick’s superior FT% in NCAA, there is risk of Proctor’s NBA 3P shooting being poor especially with a 68% FT this year.
McCain is a smaller, similar archetype player that had a good start to his rookie career until it was cut short by injury. McCain also didn’t provide much ancillary stats in the NCAA other than his 3P shooting. He shot a similar 3P% to Proctor, but with a much higher FT% (87%). McCain has improved his playmaking output in the NBA (ast%, ast/tov), so there is a path to Proctor doing the same as he was a better NCAA playmaker than McCain. However this will rely on him shooting as efficiently as McCain in the NBA, which based on the NCAA FT% difference may not materialize.
Lamb had a longer wingspan and better defensive production than Proctor (stl%, blk%) that wasn’t as reliant on 3P shooting to provide value.
da Silva and Wilson are wing sized players and have defensive versatility.
Proctor NBA value is likely going to be determined by his 3P% unless he can unlock the PG potential he had in his earlier NCAA years. There are similar 3P NCAA specialists, Guy and Thomas, without the concerning FT% of Proctor that were unable to shoot the 3P efficiently in the NBA. A starter SG role like Dick would require a big playmaker next to Proctor unless Proctor can function as a PG like Herro. A 6th man role like McCain is more likely and Proctor does have a NCAA playmaking advantage over Dick and McCain. The FT% which is 68% and much lower than all of his neighbours makes me skeptical of him as a NBA shooter and his rotation player potential.