VJ Edgecombe Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Starter with Moderate Star Potential

1. Draft Age

• 19.9 years (38th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 4.00''

• Wingspan: 6' 7.50''

• NBA Size: SG or big PG

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA Starter at Wing/SG

  • 2nd highest usg and pts/40

  • 2nd in ast%

• bpm: 9.9 (81st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths

  • high bpm

  • good athletic stats: orb%, dunksmade/40

  • playmaking: AST_per, ast/tov

  • defensive: blk_per, stl_per

  • high 3pa/100

• Flaws

  • low rim finishing %, 2P%

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 3 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Sum: 14.75

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 9 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 15 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 16 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 19 of 30

  • Overall:

    • very close neighbours

    • average production in NBA

1. Star: Banchero, Ingram

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Harris, Castle, Waiters

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Podz, McBride

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Leslie, Mathurin, Moore

5. Analysis

Edgecombe is an ideal 3 and D SG starter next to a lead playmaker with his defensive potential to generate blocks and steals. He has a high floor as he has all of the skills of a role player: defend and cause turnovers (blk% and stl%), shoot 3s, playmake (ast% and ast/tov) and dunk the ball (dunksmade/40)

The NBA stats are the blank stats in Edgecombe’s column and the filled stats are NCAA.

1. A taller, longer, more athletic Gary Harris that can defend and play off-ball to shoot threes and dunk off cuts is a good realistic floor outcome for Edgecombe.

2. He can also function as a larger, more athletic 6th man than McBride or Podz.

3. The negative VORP players are unlikely outcomes for Edgecombe.

   1. Waiters was a solid NCAA prospect, but his role player stats dropped significantly in the NBA. He is shorter than Edgecombe and more PG size.

   2. Mathurin is a pure SG and worse at the role player aspects.

   3. Moore is worse at the role player aspects and less athletic.

4. There is a chance of Edgecombe becoming a fringe star like Ingram or Banchero. While these 2 are wings and Edgecombe a SG, Edgecombe was superior or similar in wing favoured stats (orb%, stl%, dunksmade/40) than these 2. Edgecombe’s SG size rather than Wing size may limit his NBA upside.

With a solid floor as a starting SG or 6th man and realistic star upside, Edgecombe is one of the best prospects in the draft not named Flagg.

Predicted NBA Outcome: SG Starter with Moderate Star Potential

Appendix:

1. Star: Banchero, Ingram

   1. Banchero

      1. similar

         1. 0.3 years younger

         2. orb%

         3. 3P%

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. unassisted shot creation %: rim, mid, 3

         6. mid range shooting %

         7. ftr

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. FT%

         3. playmaking: ast/tov, ast%

         4. stl%

         5. 3pa/100

      3. advantages

         1. didn’t measure at combine, Wing size

         2. rim finishing %

      4. Banchero NBA changes

         1. playmaking improved

         2. ftr increased

   2. Ingram

      1. similar

         1. orb%

         2. ftr

         3. 3pa/100

      2. disadvantages

         1. playmaking

         2. FT%

         3. stl%

      3. advantages

         1. 1.1 years younger

         2. didn’t measure at combine, Wing size

         3. 3P%

         4. blk%

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim finishing % and mid finishing %

      4. Ingram NBA changes

         1. FT% improved greatly

         2. ast/tov and ast% improved greatly

         3. mid range rate and shooting % increased greatly

         4. defensive stats decreased

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Harris, Castle, Waiters

   1. Harris

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. age

         3. similar shooting %: 2P%, 3P%, FT%

      2. disadvantage

         1. bpm

         2. PG size: shorter height and similar wingspan

         3. defensive (stl%, blk%)

         4. athletic (orb%, dunksmade/40)

         5. ftr

         6. playmaking

         7. rim rate

      3. advantage

         1. higher 3pa/100 for Harris

         2. rim finishing

      4. Harris NBA changes

         1. became more offball 3 and D SG as ast% dropped and

   2. Castle

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. rebounding

         3. FT%

      2. disadvantages

         1. bpm

         2. 3P%

         3. stl%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. taller with longer wingspan

         2. playmaking: ast/tov

      4. Castle NBA changes

         1. increased playmaking

         2. rim rate dropped while mid rate rose

   3. Waiters

      1. similar

         1. 0.6 years older

         2. dunksmade/40

         3. rim finishing %, mid finishing %, unassisted 2%

      2. disadvantages

         1. PG size: shorter by 1.5 inches

         2. bpm

         3. rebounding

         4. FT%

         5. ftr

      3. advantages

         1. playmaking: ast%, ast/tov

         2. stl%

      4. Waiters NBA changes

         1. negative VORP for career

         2. 50% starter and 50% 6th man

         3. ast%, blk% and stl% dropped significantly

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Podz, McBride

   1. Podz

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. bpm

         3. FT%, 2P%, rim finishing %, mid finishing %

         4. ast/tov

         5. 3pa/100

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter wingspan

         2. stl%, blk%

         3. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. 3P% and unassisted 3 %

         2. ast%

      4. Podz NBA changes

         1. more off-ball: lower usg and ast%

         2. improved ast/tov

   2. McBride

      1. similar

         1. shorter height, but longer wingspan

         2. FT%

         3. rim finishing % and mid finishing %

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 0.9 years

         2. rebounding

         3. blk%, stl%

         4. dunksmade/40

         5. 2P%

         6. lower rim rate and higher mid range rate

      3. advantages

         1. playmaking: ast%, ast/tov

         2. 3P%

         3. higher unassisted rim % and unassisted 2%

      4. McBride NBA changes

         1. 6th man in NBA

         2. shot diet changed: more 3s and less mid range

         3. more off ball: usg dropped and ast% dropped significantly, but ast/tov rose

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Leslie, Mathurin, Moore

   1. Leslie

      1. similar

         1. ftr

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.3 years older

         2. stl%

         3. ast/tov

         4. 3pa/100

         5. mid finishing %

      3. advantages

         1. longer wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. dunksmade/40

      4. Leslie NBA changes

         1. 2nd round pick (47th) only played 10 NBA games

   2. Mathurin

      1. similar

         1. age

         2. 2P%, FT%

         3. ftr

         4. dunksmade/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. playmaking: ast%, ast/tov

         2. stl%, blk%

         3. shot creation: unassisted rim%, unassisted mid%, unassisted dunk%

         4. mid shooting %

         5. defensive (stl%, blk%) and athletic (orb%, dunksmade/40)

      3. advantages

         1. longer wingspan

         2. 3pa/100

      4. Mathurin NBA changes

         1. 6th man SG

         2. ast% and ast/tov dropped

         3. 3P% dropped

         4. mid rate rose while three rate dropped

   3. Moore

      1. disadvantages

         1. 0.9 years older

         2. orb%

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. ftr

         5. 3pa/100

         6. dunksmade/40

      2. advantages

         1. longer wingspan: large SG or small Wing

         2. 3P%

         3. ast% and ast/tov

      3. Moore NBA changes

         1. ast% and ast/tov dropped

         2. 3P% dropped significantly