Will Riley Draft Analysis

NBA Projection: Rotation Player

1. Draft Age

• 19.4 years (22nd percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

2. Physical Tools

• Height without shoes: 6' 8.25''

• Wingspan: 6' 8.75''

• NBA Size: SG

3. NCAA Team Role:

• NCAA 6th Man / Starter at Wing

• bpm: 4.7 (17th percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024)

• Strengths:

  • 2nd highest usg

  • highest pts/40

  • very good ast/tov

  • average rim shooting %

  • above average 3pa/100

  • below average unassisted rim/dunk %

• Flaws:

  • below average FT%, 3P%, 2P%

  • low blk%

  • very low stl%: 0.8%

  • below average ftr

  • below average mid shooting %

  • below average dunksmade/40

4. Nearest Neighbours within 2 years of Draft Age

• Neighbour means 2025 Draft Class ranks:

  • KNN Dist: 6 of 30

  • Neighbour NBA Adv Rank Mean: 19.25

    • NBA_Start% Rank: 15 of 30

    • BPM Rank: 27 of 30

    • WS/YEAR Rank: 17 of 30

    • VORP/YEAR Rank: 18 of 30

  • Overall:

    • moderately close neighbours

    • above average production in NBA

1. Star: Ingram, Williams

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Castle

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Beasley, Lamb, Robinson, Crabbe

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Keels, Young, Branham

5. Analysis

Riley is a young, tall SG with a neutral wingspan. Riley was a 6th man for the majority of the season until he transitioned to a starter SG/Wing for the final stretch of games. There were slight decreases in his production when becoming a starter, but he was playing more or less the same role at the same level as a 6th man and starter at Illinois.

Riley was not an efficient scorer from 2P%, 3P% or FT% which he would need to do in the NBA as he provides almost no defensive value to the team.

Riley had an incredibly low stl%, 3x lower than every neighbour except Young, which was still more than 2x lower. While having the height of a wing, he has the wingspan of a SG and this means that he will be unable to defend NBA wings especially with the very low stl%. If Riley isn’t going to succeed in the NBA as a defensive role player, he needs to succeed as an offensive player.

His most promising offensive stat is that he has a very good ast/tov of 1.86, but will need to score more efficiently in order to pull defenders towards him to utilize that playmaking.

1. The 2 stars on the list are Ingram and Williams. Ingram didn’t attend the combine, but he is wing sized with a longer wingspan than Riley. Ingram in the NCAA was worse than Riley from FT% and 2P%, but better from 3P%. They had similar mid rates and unassisted mid % and mid shooting%. Ingram had a much higher unassisted rim%, but shot a poorer rim shooting %. Ingram shot much better from mid range in the NBA at 0.46 from 10-16ft and 0.44 from 16-3P which improved his playmaking. Riley was a better NCAA playmaker than Ingram so if he could improve his NBA mid range shooting % there is potential to be a SG version of Ingram on offence while lacking the Wing defence of Ingram.

2. Jalen Williams is shorter, but has a much longer wingspan. He was older than Riley and much better defensively. Williams shot better from 2P%, 3P% and FT%. He shot slightly better from mid range than Riley in NCAA, but has improved in the NBA especially 10-16ft where he has shot 52%.

3. Since Riley lacks the wing size of Ingram and Williams with much poorer defensive production, he likewise would need to improve in the NBA mid range in order to be comparable scoring and playmaking mid range hubs.

4. Castle is the reigning rookie of the year, that is shorter than Riley with a similar wingspan. Castle also isn’t an efficient scorer in the NCAA or NBA, but has defensive role player skills that Riley doesn’t have.

5. Lamb was a solid 6th man SG, but had better defensive skills and shot better from midrange than Riley at 0.5.

6. Beasley is an offball 3 point specialist with limited defensive output and is a possible outcome for Riley if his 3P% improves. This outcome would likely make Riley a bench player due to his limited defence.

7. The rest of the neighbours, Riley doesn’t have significant statistical advantages over except for ast/tov, but Riley won’t be able to fully utilize unless he scores more efficiently.

Riley is a SG with limited defensive value that has 1 path to being a productive NBA starter or rotation player. Score much more efficiently from midrange or 3. If he improves significantly enough he might even reach the offensive heights of Ingram or Jalen Williams in a SG body. This is a gamble as if he stagnates he isn’t noticeably better than the fringe neighbours that he resembles.

Predicted NBA Outcome: Rotation Player

Appendix:

1. Star: Ingram, Williams

   1. Ingram

      1. similar

         1. closest statistical match

         2. 0.6 years younger

         3. ft%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. rim rate and rim shooting %

         6. unassisted mid%

         7. mid range shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. ast% and ast/tov

         2. unassisted 3%

         3. rim shooting %

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. no combine: wing size

         3. 2P% and 3P%

         4. defensive stats (blk%, stl%)

         5. shot creation: unassisted rim%, unassisted dunk%

         6. dunksmade/40

      4. Ingram NBA changes

         1. FT% improved greatly

         2. ast/tov and ast% improved greatly

         3. mid range rate and shooting % increased greatly

         4. defensive stats decreased

   2. Williams

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. much shorter with much longer wingspan

         3. ast/tov

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid/3%

         6. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 1.9 years

         2. orb%

         3. certain scoring areas (twoP_per, ftr, rim finishing %)

      3. advantages

         1. ast%

         2. shooting (FT_per, TP_per, 3P%)

         3. defensive (blk_per, stl_per)

         4. much higher dunksmade/40

         5. rim rate

         6. Unassisted rim/dunk %

         7. dunksmade/40

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. rim rate decreased in favour of mid range rate

         2. NCAA mid range shooting %: 0.39

         3. NBA 10-16 ft shooting %: 0.52

2. Starters (NBA_Start% >= 50%): Castle

   1. Castle

      1. similar

         1. 0.2 years older

         2. rebounding

         3. FT%

         4. ast% and ast/tov

         5. unassisted rim/mid%

         6. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. shorter with similar wingspan

         2. 3P%

         3. pts/40

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted 3%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. orb%

         3. 2P%

         4. blk% and stl%

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted dunk%

         7. dunksmade/40

      4. Castle NBA changes

         1. increased playmaking

         2. rim rate dropped while mid rate rose

3. Rotation (VORP>=0): Beasley, Lamb, Robinson, Crabbe

   1. Beasley

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. 0.2 years older

         3. orb%

         4. 2P%

         5. pts/40

         6. ftr

         7. rim rate

         8. unassisted rim%

         9. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. much shorter with smaller wingspan

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. blk%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted mid/3%

      3. advantages

         1. 3P% and FT%

         2. stl%

         3. unassisted dunk%

         4. dunksmade/40

      4. Beasley NBA changes

         1. 3 rate increased

         2. FT%

         3. ast/tov

   2. Lamb

      1. similar

         1. shorter with longer wingspan

         2. dunksmade/40

         3. 3%

         4. pts/40

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 0.6 years

         2. orb%

         3. ast% and ast/tov

         4. ftr

         5. rim rate

         6. unassisted rim/mid/3%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. FT% and 2P%

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. 3pa/100

         5. unassisted dunk%

         6. dunksmade/40

         7. rim/mid finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. ast/tov improved significantly from 0.85 => 2

   3. Robinson III

      1. similar

         1. shorter with longer wingspan

         2. orb%

         3. FT% and 3P%

         4. blk%

         5. ftr

         6. rim rate

         7. mid/dunk shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. older by 1 year

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. 3P% and 3pa/100

         4. pts/40

         5. unassisted rim/mid/3%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. 2P%

         3. stl%

         4. unassisted dunk%

         5. dunksmade/40

         6. rim shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% up to 0.37

         2. rim rate down

         3. ast/tov up to 1.6

   4. Crabbe

      1. similar

         1. shorter with longer wingspan

         2. ast%

         3. 2P% and 3P%

         4. pts/40

         5. 3pa/100

         6. unassisted rim%

         7. dunksmade/40

         8. rim shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. 1.8 years older

         2. orb%

         3. ast/tov

         4. rim rate

         5. unassisted mid/3/dunk%

      3. advantages

         1. bpm

         2. FT%

         3. blk% and stl%

         4. mid shooting %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3 rate up

         2. unassisted 2% down

         3. ast% and to% large drop

         4. ast/tov up to 1.52

4. Fringe (VORP<0): Keels, Young, Branham

   1. Keels

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. ast%

         3. 2P% and 3P% and 3pa/100

         4. rim rate

         5. rim/mid shooting%

      2. disadvantages

         1. PG size

         2. orb%

         3. FT%

         4. blk%

         5. pts/40

         6. unassisted 3%

         7. dunksmade/40

      3. advantages

         1. 0.6 years younger

         2. stl% much higher

         3. ast/tov

         4. unassisted rim/mid/dunk %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3 NBA games

   2. Young

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. shorter with much longer wingspan

         3. FT%, 2P%, 3P%

         4. pts/40

         5. rim/mid shooting %

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. blk%

         4. unassisted mid/3 %

         5. rim rate

      3. advantages

         1. 0.6 years younger

         2. 3pa/100

         3. stl%

         4. unassisted rim/dunk %

         5. dusnkmade/40

      4. NBA changes

         1. usg down

         2. 3P% dropped to 0.29

         3. FT% dropped to 0.56

         4. 3 rate increased

         5. ast% big drop

         6. ast/tov rose to 1.5

   3. Branham

      1. similar

         1. bpm

         2. younger by 0.3 years

         3. shorter with longer wingspan

         4. ast%

         5. 2P%

         6. identical blk%

         7. pts/40

         8. rim rate

         9. unassisted mid%

      2. disadvantages

         1. orb%

         2. ast% and ast/tov

         3. much lower 3pa/100

         4. unassisted 3%

      3. advantages

         1. FT% and 3P%

         2. stl%

         3. dunksmade/40

         4. unassisted rim/dunk%

         5. rim/mid/dunk finishing %

      4. NBA stat changes

         1. 3P% dropped to 34%

         2. 3 rate increased

         3. orb% decreased

         4. ast% decreased

         5. ast/tov increased