2025 NBA Draft Prospect Big Board
Includes NCAA and International prospects
My very 1st big board is a ranking of the NCAA and international prospects on their potential NBA roles as star, starter, rotation, or fringe players accounting for the value of their role (lead scorer, lead playmaker, 3 and D, rim protector etc.) and my perceived likelihood of their reaching that potential. The development will undoubtedly depend on the prospect and the team that drafts them. Only a few lucky prospects will be able to play with a MVP that maximizes their potential. This cannot be accounted for in a big board. But what can be accounted for is the data that is known about the prospect and historical draft classes in particular. The age, physical tools, NCAA production and how particular NCAA stats correlate with NBA stats. More information on this can be found on the Summary page.
The correlation of NCAA to NBA stat is one that will be particularly important in my big board and will focus on the non-scoring NCAA stats with high correlation to their NBA counterparts. Certain non-scoring stats: dunksmade/40, blk%, orb%, ast%, unassisted 2%, ast/tov, and stl% have high correlation between NCAA and NBA. The lowest correlation is among the scoring stats: TS%, eFG%, pts/40, usg, 3P%. So prospects where their primary NCAA value was based on scoring stats will be valued lower on my big board.
The International prospects are evaluated differently as there are various leagues with differing levels of competition. Each prospect is compared to only previous drafted prospects in the same league. There may be some cross over prospects in Euroleague and Eurocup, which are the basketball equivalents of Champions League and Europa League in European football. These are evaluated separately as their own league.
There were approximately 14 starters and 26 rotation players in a draft class between 2003 and 2024. My big board will try to attempt to predict the 14 starters and 26 rotation players with a list of borderline prospects who just missed out. Each prospect has a more detailed statistical analysis under their entry.
Tier 1: Star
1. Cooper Flagg
Flagg ranks in 1st percentile amongst draft age and 97th percentile in bpm amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024. That means he is simultaneously one of the youngest and most productive NCAA players of the last 20 years. To add more good news, he is in one of the most coveted moulds, a wing-sized scorer and point forward who can function as an elite 3 and D wing.
Flagg had one of the highest KNN Dist (measure of neighbour nearness) amongst the prospects on this big board (only Maluach and Coward were higher) as on average, Flagg’s 10 nearest neighbours are more distant to him than the vast majority of other prospect’s neighbours are to them. This is not that surprising as Flagg is a well rounded prospect that is good in many areas. From his neighbours, Flagg is better as a 3 and D wing than Otto Porter, better as a PG than D’Angelo Russell, and better as a scorer than Jabari Smith. These are all high lottery picks that are quality starters. Not only better, but Flagg is younger than all of them. Flagg is younger and better than some very diverse specialists in various positions at their own specialities while having multiple of these skills. Flagg is the unquestioned best prospect in the draft.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: The next American MVP
Tier 2: Starter with Moderate Star Potential
2. Dylan Harper
Harper is a desired mould of PG skills in a SG sized body which makes him more defensively versatile than most small starting PGs. His size gave him an advantage scoring at the rim with a high rim finishing%. However this was the only area of scoring efficiency as he was below average for a PG at FT%, midrange shooting % and 3P%. This might end up being a concern as Harper had a low dunksmade/40 for his size, below some of his smaller PG neighbours. Dunks are the most efficient basketball shot and is the highest correlated stat from NCAA to NBA. The NBA offensive worry for Harper is that he continues to struggle from midrange and 3 and has to rely on his rim scoring completely. His relatively low dunksmade/40 in the NCAA means that he might not be able to get to the rim easily in the NBA especially if opponents force him to take midrange and 3s. He will need to improve significantly at midrange or 3 and potentially both in order to reach his max potential of an offensive star. The floor is high for a PG in a SG body with good playmaking and defensive versatility. The offensive ceiling remains a question mark.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: SG-sized Fox on offence / SGA on defence.
3. VJ Edgecombe
VJ is a well-rounded player who is good at all of the role-player aspects (orb%, ast/tov, blk%, stl%, dunksmade/40) with decent, but not spectacular shooting %s. He has a likely floor as an offball SG starter or 6th man that can complement other stars. If his onball scoring and playmaking take a jump, he can be a starting athletic big PG and potentially more valuable than Harper, but that is too optimistic a projection at this point.
I consider VJ and Harper as a separate tier as they have solid floors as role-playing starters and more realistic star upside than prospects further down on the list. I consider VJ to have the higher floor because of better role player production, but Harper with the higher, more explosive ceiling as a PG and bigger than VJ. In the end I give the slight edge to Harper due to the playmaking and the NBA having more size than the NCAA. A wing-sized VJ would have likely edged it, but VJ is smaller than Harper.
Note that Edgecombe has one of the lowest KNN Dist of any prospect on this big board (the mean of his 10 nearest neighbours are closer to him compared to other 2025 draft prospects).
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller, longer, more athletic Gary Harris (Denver Starter Version)
Tier 3: Starter with Small Star Potential
This includes Ginobili-like 6th men where they are clearly more valuable than certain starters, but are not technically starters.
4. Kon Knueppel
Knueppel played a co-star role next to Wing superstar Flagg and can continue to do so in the NBA. He starred as a offball SG with good shooting and playmaking. As a starting SG, he will likely need to defend the weaker offensive backcourt opponent, but if he can’t, he can be a Ginobili-like 6th man. He may have untapped onball star potential with his shooting and playmaking, but didn’t shoot enough pull up 3s or pass on enough volume to project that in the NBA. Overall, he is the safest remaining pick to be a valuable starter or 6th man with some star potential if some unseen skills materialize.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: SG-sized Mikal Bridges on offence / DiVincenzo on defence
5. Collin Murray-Boyles
CMB is the biggest riser on my big board compared to most draft projections that have him in the late lottery or outside it. I see his projection as starting PF with All-Defence potential and underrated scoring ability inside the arc. And if he shoots 3s efficiently enough, he might just rise on my already sky-high evaluation of him. I was surprised he didn’t enter the weak draft in 2024 as he already proved he could be a role playing wing defender as a 19 year old freshman. As a 20 year old sophomore, he took on a lead scorer role as a NCAA C with the same defensive output. The fact that he can scale his defence in both lower and higher usage is a good sign for his scalability in the NBA.
People rightfully question his 3 point shooting, but they also likely questioned the same aged-freshman Evan Mobley. Mobley just won Defensive player of the year as a starting PF next to a non-shooting C Jarrett Allen. I believe CMB can be productive in a similar starting PF role even though he is wing-sized rather than C size like Mobley. When compared to NCAA Mobley, CMB is worse in rim protection, dunk shooting% and dunksmade/40, but he makes up for with a really high stl%, ast% (on a similar ast/tov) and rim rate. There are legitimate concerns with whether CMB will shoot 3s, but he has very similar NCAA shooting markers (FT%, 3P%, 3pa/100) to Mobley. Mobley has become an all-defence NBA PF shooting just 0.32 from 3 for his NBA career, so CMB has the same shooting potential in a smaller wing-sized frame. Even if CMB doesn’t reach the impact of Mobley, there are still valuable neighbours like PJ Washington or a longer Grant Williams. These 2 have had solid NBA careers in both a starting and backup capacity, and I would consider it a very reachable outcome for CMB. There is a reasonable question whether a defensive star is comparable to an offensive star in today’s high scoring NBA, but CMB is not a one-dimensional defender and has shown he can provide efficient offence either in a role player or high usage role.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Wing-sized Evan Mobley - C skills (rim protection, dunks) + wing skills (stl%, ast%)
Tier 4: Starter
Ordered by more preferable roles and considering likelihood of being starter or impactful 6th man.
6. Jase Richardson
I consider this the playmaking draft. The players in the top 5 of my big board are all good playmakers and are much bigger than normal PGs. Jase is the first PG-sized player and his playmaking is the biggest question of what level he can reach. Jase is almost exactly the same size as Tyus Jones at a height of 6' 0.50'' and wingspan at 6' 6.00''. If Jase had the same production with the measurements (height of 6' 4.75'' and wingspan of 6' 11.5'') and dunk champion athleticism of his NBA dad, Jason Richardson, he would immediately vault to 2 on my big board. Pity some sons don’t get their father’s luck. I think Bronny would agree. Nonetheless even at his PG size, Jase was incredibly productive in a split 6th man / offball starter SG role as a freshman. This is good for his NBA projection as he will likely begin in a 6th man or offball SG role until he proves he can playmake as a starting PG. The good news is that he might already have the ability. Jase’s teammate, Fears Jr had an incredibly high ast% of 38.8% that might have masked Jase’s latent PG skills. Rather than Jase doesn’t have the ability to be a PG, but Jase has never been given the opportunity to be a starting PG.
This mirrors the same masking faced by Monk (in the NCAA and NBA next to Fox), and Haliburton (in his freshman NCAA year and in the NBA next to Fox). I secretly hope for Jase to get drafted by the Spurs as a 6th man and then eventually traded to become a PG starter to test my Fox opportunity/ability theory. Does it always work with Fox or is it the Kings? Jase was a superior NCAA prospect to Monk, especially in ast/tov which is necessary for a starting PG. And Monk was able to improve in ast% and ast/tov to eventually became a 6th man of the year candidate and starting PG (Let’s just forget about the Charlotte and LA years). Hali did this on an even greater scale first in his sophomore NCAA year and then in the NBA to become an All-NBA player and in the NBA Finals.
An older neighbour of Jase, Quickley had the same transition. He was the 3rd playmaking guard in his sophomore year behind Hagans and Maxey. And then was the 6th man to Brunson in the NBA. He was then traded to Toronto to become the starting PG with a marked increase in ast% and ast/tov. Jase is much younger and superior or at worse similar in many important NCAA stats to Quickley. Jase is a better NCAA PG prospect and reaching a similar NBA starting PG level or better than Quickley would be expected.
The other big question mark is physical tools. Hali didn’t measure at the combine, but is likely significantly taller and longer than Jase. Monk did not measure, but is unlikely to be smaller. Quickley is taller with a longer wingspan. That being said, Jase doesn’t need to be as productive as Hali to be worth this draft position. An outcome like Quickley or Monk with better playmaking and/or scoring is realistic. Or conversely, Hali’s brain and skills in Tyus’ Jones body can still be an above average starting PG. This calculus changes even further if the drafting team has an non-PG sized lead playmaker that Jase can play offball as the nominal starting PG. He was really productive in both the 6th man and offball SG role as a young NCAA player, if he can continue that role while developing his lead PG skills, he can be productive and continue to grow into the starting PG role that he had the ability for all along.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Smaller Quickley with better playmaking and scoring
7. Jeremiah Fears
Fears and Jase are going to be my favourite draft pairs to watch in the NBA as they are both young PGs (Fears 1 year younger), with different physical tools (Fears taller, but shorter wingspan), and different NCAA roles. While Jase was a 6th man/offball SG starter without the opportunity to be a starting PG, Fears got all the opportunity he could handle and then some. A very high usg and ast%, but alongside a mediocre ast/tov for a starting PG.
Fears wasn’t an efficient scorer in the NCAA. He had a high FT% and midrange shooting %. But he struggled in 2 areas important for a starting PG, rim shooting% and 3P%. The star PGs need to be above average, maybe even elite, at one, or maybe even both. Is Fears going to go from finishing at 0.53 from the rim in the NCAA to finishing like Kyrie in the NBA? Likewise for the 3P shooting. On the defensive side, Fears had a high stl of 3.1% so should be able to provide more defensive value that other small PGs cannot.
The good news is that even with his inconsistent scoring and playmaking, Fears has a good NCAA neighbour in Collin Sexton, and is 0.8 years younger. Sexton has been an occasional starting PG / occasional 6th man and is very attainable outcome for Fears. If Fears wants to join the star PG group I suspect he will have to become above average or elite in at least 2 of: rim finishing, pull up 3 point shooting and playmaking.
That’s one tiebreaker in favour of Jase as he has one area, playmaking, if the rest of his NCAA game translates while Fears requires multiple improvements. Another tiebreaker is that Jase has shown to be able to find success in an offball role, which Fears may not be able to do so with his poor rim shooting % and 3P% being detrimental in an offball role. Fears looks more likely to be only a starting PG or 6th man. Jase has more lineup flexibility in an offball role.
Fears has one tiebreaker over Jase as 1 year younger. I have Jase slightly ahead of Fears, but would understand some preferring the younger known PG over the older, unknown PG.
Is it better to potentially have the ability, but not the opportunity (Jase) or have all the opportunity and shown to potentially not have the ability (Fears)? Their NBA careers will be interesting to follow and compare.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Collin Sexton with boost in playmaking and scoring
8. Noa Essengue
Noa is one of the youngest prospects in the last 20 years, only a couple of days older than Flagg. Despite this, he played a prominent role on his German and Eurocup team. His physical tools make him a tall Wing or small C. His role player stats (orb%, stl%, blk%, ast/tov) are good and project him to be an offball Wing with good role player production. His below average 3P% and FT% keep me from labelling him a valuable 3 and D wing that would raise him on this big board. There is another aspect of his offensive profile that makes him an intriguing prospect. He had a very high fta/40 in both the German and Eurocup league. If this translates to the NBA, then Noa offensive efficiency will be buoyed by increased free throw attempts unlike most of the offball wings. And if his free throw rate translates and 3 point shooting improves, he can be a very valuable 3 and D wing starter. I classify Noa as a starter due to his youth and likely defensive role player production with offensive potential from 3 point shooting or a high free throw rate. His physical tools and better role player production at a younger age make me rank him above the other wings in this tier who also need sizeable improvements to be solidified wing starters. Bailey with his playmaking, Bryant with his fouling and 3 point shooting, and Markovic with his wing defence. Since his offensive production is still a question mark, I rank him below the PG playmakers with solid starter potential in Jase and Fears.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller Batum with less playmaking
9. Ace Bailey
If the top of the board was the playmaking section, it comes to a screeching halt with Bailey. Bailey is a young Wing that is projected to be taken much earlier in the lottery, but is placed lower on my board due to scoring inefficiency and poor playmaking. Bailey did score efficiently in the NCAA midrange at 0.46, but the other areas were average to below average (FT%, 3P%, rim shooting %). If Bailey is to be an onball midrange scorer, he needs to be able to playmake more effectively than a negative ast/tov of 0.62. Scoring in the midrange is essential for many scorers, but so is the ability to pass for more efficient scoring shots than the midrange (dunks, rim, open 3s, free throws). At this point when Bailey passes he is more likely to turn the ball over than assist teammates in those desired areas.
Bailey does have 1 statistical neighbour with a similar Wing profile favouring midrange shots that became an NBA All-Star, Brandon Ingram. Ingram was a worse midrange % shooter in the NCAA than Bailey and has increased his mid range volume and efficiency in the NBA. Ingram had significant improvement in his playmaking as he went from an ast/tov of 0.99 => 1.65 in the NBA. Notably he did this by increasing his ast% by 9.3% while also decreasing his to% by 0.9%. This would be a massive playmaking improvement for Bailey as he had an ast% of 8.3% so he would need to more than double his ast% while also decreasing the to% like Ingram did. If Bailey can’t do so effectively, it’s unlikely he will be given the reigns to be an onball midrange scorer as a starter.
Luckily, Bailey does have another path to be a valuable starter with his wing dimensions and decent role player production (orb%, blk%). A wing-sized version of offball 3 point specialist like Hardaway Jr would be a reasonable outcome provided Bailey can improve his 3 point shooting and change his shot profile from midrange to 3s.
Since he has 2 paths to being a starter and the onball scorer is more valuable, a team can presumably attempt the Ingram path first to see if his playmaking can improve significantly before making the transition to offball wing similar to Andrew Wiggins’ career arc.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Brandon Ingram with worse playmaking
10. Carter Bryant
Bryant is a young Wing playing a low usg 3 and D bench role in the NCAA. He has small wing dimensions, just under 7 foot wingspan, and may not have the length and strength to defend the big NBA wings with longer wingspans like Kawhi or Durant. OG Anunoby is the ideal outcome for Bryant, but he has a longer wingspan to guard the big wings and similar defensive production (stl%, blk%) with a much larger dunksmade/40, a highly correlated NCAA to NBA stat. Bryant is unlikely to reach the defensive levels of OG.
Furthermore Bryant had a really high personal foul rate compared to his statistical neighbours so it remains a question whether he would be able to maintain his good defensive stat production (stl%, blk%) while playing starter’s minutes guarding superstar wings. The other piece of Bryant projected role, the 3, was a good 0.37 on 8.36 3pa/100. However Bryant shot only 0.69 from FT% and 3 point shooting is one of the lowest correlated stats for prospects at only 0.326.
Bryant can be a 3 and D wing starter, but if 1 of those skills dips, he might end up a bench player. Bailey has the edge because of his unlikely onball potential even if it requires a large substantial leap. Bryant is likely to end up the better 3 and D role player as they have similar dimensions, but Bryant has an edge on defensive stats (blk% and stl%) and was successful NCAA in that role already.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: shorter Taylor Hendricks
11. Bogoljub Marković
The biggest difference in my big board compared to projected mocks is Markovic. He’s mocked in the 2nd round in most places, which is surprising to me because Markovic has some significant prospect advantages over the similar sized Nikola Jovic, who has been a productive wing starter for the Heat early in his career. Jovic was the 27th pick in the draft from the same team in the Adriatic league where Markovic had much more efficient shooting (FG%,FT%,3P%) and better role player stats (orb%, stl%, blk%) and good ast/tov. Not only that, Markovic was more efficient than future MVP C Jokic despite being smaller. To me Markovic is a definite 1st round pick and likely wing starter unless his defence pushes him to the bench. Even then he should be an efficient scoring Wing that can be a small C with his decent orb% and drb%. I wouldn’t necessarily draft him in the lottery when he is projected in the 2nd round, but would target him in the draft as he falls.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Nikola Jovic with Nikola Jokic efficiency (In reality, a more efficient Jovic)
12. Thomas Sorber
Sorber is a small C that measured shorter than most C at 6' 9.25'', but with a much longer wingspan relative to his height at 7' 6.00''. This ratio gives Sorber a good mix of wing (stl%, positive ast/tov, FT%) and C skills (blk%) to be a productive role-playing, defensive centre in the NBA. His offence was less productive, particularly against top 100 opponents. Sorber experienced one of the larger drop offs in overall production when removing non-top 100 opponents, especially on the offensive end. His 2P% dropped from 0.6 => 0.53, rim finishing 0.69=>0.59, and dunksmade/40 1.12 =>0.85. The drop in offensive production with increased competition means Sorber’s offensive production can be limited in the NBA.
Fortunately the role playing stats (orb%, stl%, blk%, ast/tov) that correlate well with NBA production maintained with the increased competition. Sorber has a statistical neighbour in Looney, an offensively limited role playing centre that occasionally started in the NBA. Sorber is a better prospect than NCAA Looney as he measured out taller and with a longer wingspan, similar in many areas (stl%, ast/tov, FT%) and was superior in 2 areas important for Cs, blk% and 2P%.
I consider Sorber to be the most likely starting C in this draft class because of his defensive role playing potential which is more likely to translate to the NBA. His ceiling is not as high as the more offensively gifted Cs ranked below him, but he is more likely to reach it. Possible doubts about his offensive game and the career impact of his season-long foot injury keep me from moving him higher.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller, longer Looney with better scoring and defence.
13. Egor Demin
Demin is one of the most difficult prospects to place on this board as he can move from the top to the bottom of this tier. He is a 6’8 PG with very good playmaking (ast% and ast/tov), and decent defensive stats (stl% and blk%). However the rest of his stats are more underwhelming. He doesn’t play like he’s 6’8 as he had an extremely low orb% (the lowest of his BYU team and lower than almost all of his statistical neighbours that are several inches shorter). His scoring was inconsistent and was below average from 3P% and FT%.
Demin played 33 NCAA games with 7 against non-top 100 competition, the least similar to the NBA level. While most 2025 prospects had a decline in production when filtering for only top-100 competition, Demin had one of the sharpest declines. Removing just those 7 games dropped his bpm from 5 to 2.85. The role-player stats all experience sizeable drops (orb%, blk%, stl%). His finishing dropped at all levels (2P%, 3P%, rim finishing %, dunk finishing %).
A young, tall PG with playmaking and defensive utility is always going to be a coveted archetype. But if Demin continues to shoot poorly from 3, he’ll be an awkward fit in the starting lineup next to high usage stars. A 6th man role looks to be a more likely outcome unless his shooting improves and/or he plays more like he’s 6’8 (orb%, dunksmade/40).
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Wing-sized Cole Anthony with defensive versatility and worse shooting
14. Khaman Maluach
Maluach is the biggest difference in my board and other boards. At first glance he is a young C on a good team that measured over 7 feet and produced well in the NCAA with a bpm 10.9. Notably he had the 2nd most distant neighbours on this board even though many of his neighbours are Cs. Maluach has some statistical flaws that are valuable for a NBA starting C. Note most of these flaws weren’t seen in his Duke backups, Brown and Ngongba, which makes it unlikely to be because of the Duke system.
Very low ast%: 4.3%
2nd highest to% of any Duke starter: 13%
low stl%: 0.6%
negative ast/tov: 0.67
Despite being over 7 feet, Maluach was not a dominant rim protector compared to some of his statistical neighbours with a blk% of 6.8%. Due to poor playmaking and defensive production compared to neighbours like Clingan and Lively, Maluach will have to produce excess offensive value.
He had a very high dunksmade/40 which correlates well in the NBA, but had the lowest dunk finishing% of 0.89 (and below average overall) compared to his statistical neighbours that are traditional Cs. Note that 0.89 is below average not just for Cs, but for all NCAA drafted players between 2010-2024 where the average was 0.91. So this list includes NBA PGs as well. Maluach is a high volume dunker, but not an efficient dunker.
The best chance of Maluach producing excess offensive value compared to traditional Cs is from the 3 point line. His FT% of 77% is high for a traditional C, but his 3P% was only 0.25, and many of Maluach’s neighbours had similar NCAA FT% and haven’t been consistent NBA 3 point shooters (Mark Williams, Hayes, Ayton).
Ayton is a good comparable for Maluach as he had similar mediocre NCAA rim protection and was a poor playmaker (ast/tov), albeit still better than Maluach.
I consider Maluach to be the 2025 Jaxson Hayes Playoff Starter of my big board, where he remains as a starter for now, but will potentially be bumped down. He may well start over 50% of NBA games and provide positive VORP, but will likely be less effective than defensive role-player starting Cs like Lively or Clingan. Maluach’s profile requires offensive jumps in his game in order to paper over his defensive, playmaking, and dunk efficiency flaws.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: C-sized Jalen Smith on offence / Ayton on defence
Tier 5: Rotation Player
15. Kasparas Jakucionis
Jak was a big PG in the NCAA, but is unlikely to start in a NBA PG role due to his high to% and mediocre ast/tov. He can function as a NBA SG since he can be a good 3 point shooter as he has a good FT% of 0.84. His NCAA 3P% was low for a SG at 0.32, but he shot a high % of unassisted pull-up 3s (0.63), which would likely be curtailed more in an offball SG role.
He is not likely to produce surplus defensive value with his below average stl% of 1.5%, so he will have to be efficient on the offensive end.
This likely will require efficient 3 point shooting to be an effective SG starter or 6th man as he was below average in midrange shooting % and had a very low dunksmade/40 with only 1 dunk the entire year. He had an above average unassisted rim % and decent rim finishing % so this indicates that he does have good touch around the rim, but his rim rate was only average.
Jak has a good statistical neighbour in Ivey who functions as a NBA SG next to Cade. Ivey is still a young player, but has had only 1 season in his career where he has a positive VORP, this season where he shot 0.41 from 3P% compared to 0.35 for his career. Ideally changing Kasp to a more NBA offball 3 point specialist will raise his 3P% to levels similar to 2025 Ivey while also reducing his turnovers. A SG requiring 3 point efficiency in order to be a starter is not a prospect archetype that I favor, so I rank Kasp below some of the other prospects in better archetypes (playmaker, wings) that have strengths in playmaking and defensive stats that Jak doesn’t have.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 2025 Jaden Ivey with less athleticism
16. Tre Johnson
Tre is a SG with a long wingspan that shot efficiently from the FT and 3P line. But he shot only 0.45 from 2P, worse than all of his statistical neighbours, many of which don’t have the long wingspan that he does. The low 2P is largely from a low rim rate and dunksmade/40 compared to most of his neighbours, so Tre does not generate the most efficient shots inside the arc. His midrange shooting % was only average so coupled with his poor rim pressure he isn’t able to playmake on high volume even though he has a good ast/tov ratio. Becoming a lead playmaker is unlikely as Tre had the highest ast% in the Texas starting lineup so he did have the opportunity to playmake unlike someone like Jase.
Even with his long wingspan, Tre had a below average stl% so his NBA production is more likely to depend on efficient offensive scoring from 3 like Jak. I rank Jak higher as he shot significantly better from 2P (0.56) and was doing it in a PG role rather than a SG role, which most likely will lead to a rise in his efficiency.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: SG-sized Malik Monk with worse playmaking
17. Walter Clayton Jr
The NCAA Most Outstanding Player doesn’t always translate to the NBA, but I think Clayton has the right skillset to be a productive rotation player. His excellent 3P% and FT% shooting with solid playmaking gives him a number of potential NBA pathways despite being PG sized. 6th Man PG neighbours like Dallas Brunson, Brogdon or Pritchard would be excellent outcomes with Pritchard being the most similar comparison due to size and reliance on 3P shooting. Offball small SG roles like DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen, or Sam Merrill next to a big playmaker is a possibility. Even if his NBA shooting slips like Jared Butler or Jordan Crawford, they are still positive rotation players because of their playmaking. I consider fellow NCAA MOP Jared Butler to be Clayton’s floor with the upside of all of the other neighbours if his shooting and playmaking both translate. Clayton PG stat profile of better 3P shooting is preferable to Kam Jones’ as it allows Clayton to function better offball similar to Pritchard as he won 6th Man of the Year.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 6th Man of the Year Payton Pritchard
18. Kam Jones
Jones is a senior and is one of the oldest prospects in the draft and would be one of the oldest drafted in the 1st round from the last 20 years (95th percentile). Because of this, he has an age and experience NCAA advantage that will swiftly switch to a disadvantage as an NBA rookie. Jones’ earlier years need to be considered in analyzing his NBA potential.
Jones had a consistent increase year over year in bpm and usg in his NCAA career. The most notable change is a massive increase in ast% from 11.9-16.7 his earlier years to 38.1%. This ast% along with the very high ast/tov of 3.17 indicates the potential for Jones to be a NBA PG as he has good physical tools for a PG and would have been undersized as a SG.
His 3P% has been inconsistent in his career (31% last year) and FT% has peaked at 72%, which makes it unlikely to be a consistent 3P shooter. He has a number of other offensive flaws, mainly a low ftr of 16, lower than almost all of his neighbours, and no dunks made in his senior season. This means that he will not provide surplus offensive value at the 3 most efficient scoring areas: 3s, dunks and free throws. Because of this, I project Jones to be a backup PG and not a starting one.
Most of Jones’ neighbours are currently backup PGs in the NBA right now. His stl% is around the same levels as most of these neighbours, which means he likely won’t be a large defensive improvement over them.
Jones’ main advantages over his neighbours are his higher rim rate and his good mid range shooting %. I hesitate to conclude that he can continue his above average rim rate in the NBA because of the 2 reasons noted above: Jones has a very low ftr and has no dunks on the year. This coupled with the questionable 3 point shooting makes me skeptical Jones will be able to have a high frequency of rim attempts to maintain his efficiency. So I predict Jones’ offensive value will primarily depend on his above average mid range shooting % of 0.45 maintaining or improving in the NBA. This is a tough area for PG to be super efficient in compared to the more ideal areas: 3s, rim, free throws. And a midrange specialist has less offball value compared to 3 point shooters. For a backup PG, I would prefer a more 3 point oriented archetype like Pritchard or Ty Jerome, 2 of Jones’ neighbours, or Walter Clayton Jr, a fellow draft prospect. Jones’ does have potential as a rotation player as almost all of his backup PG neighbours have positive career VORP except for Pickett and Kolek, 2 recent draft picks not yet in the rotation.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller and longer Monte Morris with worse 3 point shooting
19. Ben Saraf
A young PG prospect from Ratiopharm Ulm that might be a questionable shooter. Stop me if you heard this before. Killian Hayes famously went 7th in the draft, above future All-NBA PG Haliburton based on his play at the same team as Saraf. Fortunately for Saraf, Hayes’ shooting is the main issue in the NBA. Hayes’ playmaking and stl% in the NBA has been good, and Saraf’s similar German league and Eurocup output will likely translate as well. Saraf is a bigger than Hayes as SG sized which is reflected in the higher orb% and blk%. So even if Saraf struggles offensively he will have more defensive versatility than Hayes. If Saraf can match the NBA efficiency of another German league PG, Schroder, he can have a similar role as an occasional PG starter or 6th man. Saraf is in a similar mould to Demin, another international PG with good playmaking and questionable shooting. The difference is Demin is wing sized rather than SG sized so is in the higher tier. Traore is a PG sized playmaker with questionable shooting and less defensive versatility and is in the lower tier.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Tomas Satoransky with better defence
20. Joan Beringer
Joan is one of the youngest prospects in the draft and is a C with good physical tools. He has comparable defensive impact in the Adriatic and Eurocup leagues to solid NBA Cs: Gortat, Zubac, Capela and Goga despite being younger than all of them. His offensive game is more of a question mark. He has much lower pts/40 than all of these neighbours and was not a 3 point shooter or playmaker. He will likely be an offensive liability in the NBA unless he is paired with an elite playmaker. Because of these offensive limitations, I have him more as a defensive backup C.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Bench Capela with worse offence
21. Johni Broome
Broome is a 5th year senior with small C dimensions. He has been very productive 4 of the 5 years and improved every year in the NCAA, which is a good sign for the NBA projection as he did not just play better because of his older age and experience. He was still productive in the NCAA as a 19.9 year old sophomore.
Broome has a good statistical neighbour in Trayce Jackson-Davis, as they are similar age, height, wingspan and NCAA role. TJD does have a slight edge in blk% so would likely be a better NBA rim protector than Broome. TJD as a rookie has started 41% of games for the Warriors and has a positive VORP so it is likely Broome will be a positive rotation player for his career with the occasional start, but his ceiling is limited due to age and his profile.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Trayce Jackson-Davis with worse shotblocking
22. Derik Queen
Despite being a freshman, Queen at 20.5 years is older than 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024. Queen is 2 years older than his freshman peer, Flagg. Queen is a tweener Wing/C with dimensions more like a tall Wing than a traditional C. With a low blk% compared to most starting Cs, I don’t expect him to be a starting NBA C.
Queen had a good FT% of 0.77, but a poor 3P% of 0.2 on 1.82 3pa/100 so it is unlikely he would shoot well enough to start at Wing. He has middling efficiency in all areas: rim/mid/dunk and negative ast/tov.
Queen has the opposite of the desired tweener skills. Queen has the distance shooting of a C and the shot blocking and inside scoring of a Wing. It’s unlikely that a team will feature him as a starter, so a bench role is more likely.
One of Queens’s neighbours won 6th man of the year, Montrez Harrell. They share a lot of statistical similarities: blk%, ast/tov, orb%, 3P% and 3pa/100. Harrell was more athletic with a much higher dunksmade/40 and better 2P%, thus Queen might not reach the heights of Harrell. Harrell had a very solid 12.2 career VORP so a less productive Harrell outcome can still be a rotation player.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 6th Man Montrezl Harrell with less athleticism
23. Asa Newell
Newell is a tweener tall Wing/ small C and with a wingspan under 7 feet. Therefore Newell will be unlikely able to be a NBA starting C especially with his low blk% of 3.8%. He has a decent stl% of 2% and decent FT% at 0.75, but with a low 3P% (0.29) and a negative ast/tov of 0.78, he is unlikely to be a starting Wing as well.
Newell has a number of neighbours that function in the backup PF or occasional starter role and are rotation players (Portis, Hachimura, and De’Andre Hunter). Newell lacks in 3 point shooting compared to these neighbours, but is much more efficient from 2P%, better at orb% and younger than all of them, so I expect Newell to be able to be an effective rotation PF.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 6th Man Bobby Portis with worse 3P%
24. Ryan Kalkbrenner
Kalkbrenner is a older C who is taller and longer than Walker Kessler. Kalkbrenner is good in the traditional C areas (orb%, blk%, 2P%) and has some upside in other areas (ast/tov over 1, solid 3P% shooting for a C). He can likely function as a bench C role, but improved 3 point shooting would make him a stretch 5, a valuable archetype of a C that provides traditional C stats, but also 3 point shooting. Even if the 3 point shooting doesn’t materialize, he can still be a rotation player, so his solid floor and potential upside have him in the rotation tier.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Obi Toppin with better shot blocking and worse 3P shooting
25. Adou Thiero
Thiero is a junior with small wing dimensions with an exact 7 foot wingspan. He had a noticeable increase in bpm (5.2=>8.21) going from a 20.1 year old sophomore to a 21.1 year old junior, which leads to a question of how much of the improvement was due to the age and experience advantage?
As a junior he had a sizeable increase in 2P%, noticeably in 2 areas: 1) a very high dunksmade/40 of 2.42 (higher than all of his neighbours including Cs) and 2) a very high midrange shooting % of 0.49. If he can replicate this in the NBA, he would be a very efficient scoring player, but these both were much lower in his earlier seasons, so it may not be replicable. Thiero’s 3 point shot was below average his entire NCAA career, so he’ll likely need to be efficient from 2 to provide offensive value.
He had consistent defensive production (stl%, blk%) over his entire NCAA career, so even if the offence doesn’t translate, his defence can. Thiero likely floor is one of his neighbours, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who was a bench defensive wing that struggled from 3. RHJ has a positive VORP for his career and I expect Thiero to be able to match his production even if the 3 doesn’t improve.
If Thiero’s 3 point shooting improves to the extent of one of his neighbours, Jerami Grant (making 0 3s his sophomore season to 0.36 in the NBA), he can be an offball 3 and D wing starter. This is possible, but unlikely for Thiero.
The other path for Thiero is that his junior midrange shooting translates and he continues to be a decent playmaker (ast/tov of 1.11). Then he has a path similar to 2 of his neighbours, Jimmy Butler and Julius Randle, as point forward players that prefer the midrange and can pass effectively. Butler and Randle are both starters, but Thiero can still do the role as a 6th man if he doesn’t make the scoring and playmaking jump that Butler and Randle did.
With a likely floor as a defensive bench wing and 2 distinct paths to being a more valuable player, I consider Thiero to have a good chance to be a rotation player.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 6th Man Julius Randle on offence / Rondae Hollis-Jefferson on defence
26. Cedric Coward
Coward has the height of a SG, but a longer wingspan than all of the prospects in this tier except for Fleming. These unique dimensions give him the theoretical possibility of being a wing defender. Unfortunately this potential couldn’t be analyzed properly this year as Coward’s senior year consisted of only 6 NCAA games where 5 of them were against non-top 100 competition. Instead I will analyze the neighbours to Coward’s 2024 junior season where he played 30 NCAA games.
Coward had a marked increase in role from his sophomore to junior years (higher minutes and usg). This also came with a large decrease in bpm with major declines in 2 areas: 2P% and ast/tov. His ast% dropped and to% rose with the increased usage. Because of this he most likely will function better in an offball role. Coward’s FT% shooting rose sharply (0.73=>0.91), while his 3P% dropped slightly (0.39=>0.36). His 2P% was good both years, but he also has a low dunksmade/40 both years, which would have been beneficial for an offball shooter cutting to the rim with his long wingspan. On the defensive side his blk% is quite good, but stl% below average which is disappointing with the wingspan that he has.
2024 Coward only has rotation and fringe players in his 10 neighbours (no stars or starters) so along with the flaws above, I expect Coward to be at best a rotation player if his shooting maintains.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller and longer Malik Beasley with defensive upside
Tier 6: Borderline Rotation Players
Just missed the cut in the previous rotation player tier.
27. Rasheer Fleming
Fleming is a wing in height, but with a much longer wingspan which theoretically allows him to function as both a wing and a C. He is a junior so it’s prudent to analyze his previous years to determine how much of an improvement he made and in which areas in particular. There is a danger in inferring too much from their most recent year when they had the age and experience advantage over other NCAA players, as they will not be afforded that advantage as a rookie NBA player. Comparing Fleming’s sophomore and junior years, there is a large uptake in shooting for FT% (0.61=>0.74) and 3P%(0.32=>0.39). With this I question if Fleming will truly be an efficient NBA 3 point shooter especially with 3P% being one of the lowest correlated skills between the NCAA and NBA. Fleming’s defensive stats (stl%, blk%) were relatively good all 3 years of his NCAA career, so he can be a questionable-3 and decent-D wing. The rest of Fleming’s offensive value is limited with his consistent negative ast/tov ratio and low % of unassisted FG. So if his 3 is not consistent like it was in the junior year, he may profile more as a bench Wing than starter.
The other starting path is to be a starting C with the pterodactyl wingspan with respect to his height. Notably 2 important C stats dropped from his sophomore to junior years: orb% (10.9=>7.6) and blk% (6.8=>4.9). Those junior numbers are not inspiring to be a starting C.
Because of the unlikeliness of the starting wing or C NBA path, I consider Fleming to most likely be a bench option for PF and C. One of his neighbours, Moritz Wagner, has a similar role for the Magic with the occasional start. Wagner has been a rotation player for his NBA career and I project Fleming to be as well, with a small potential as a wing starter if his 3 point shooting from the junior year is there.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Wing-sized Moritz Wagner
28. Will Riley
Riley is a tall SG, but has a neutral wingspan so will unlikely be able to guard NBA wings. Furthermore, he had poor defensive stats including a very poor stl%. He might not be able to guards SGs as well. Because of the poor defence, Riley’s strengths are on offence, but he was not efficient from 2P%, 3P%, or FT%. The most promising offensive stat is his excellent ast/tov and he can utilize it well if his onball midrange game evolves like his neighbours, Brandon Ingram and Jalen Williams. However these 2 are wings with longer wingspans than Riley. Still, there is reason for optimism as Riley shot similar midrange shooting % as NCAA Ingram and Williams, with a higher % of unassisted midrange shots than both. This combined with his very high ast/tov sees the potential of Riley as a SG-sized, 6th man version provided he improves his midrange shooting % in the NBA as they did. This makes him just intriguing enough to project him as a rotation instead of fringe player.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 6th Man SG-sized Brandon Ingram with much worse defence
29. Alex Toohey
Toohey is a defensive wing who doesn’t quite have the wingspan to guard big wings like Durant and Kawhi. He has very good stl% and blk% for a wing in the Australian league, better than all recent Australian league prospects except for 2nd pick Alex Sarr’s blk%. He likely has a NBA rotation role solely on his defence, but on SGs and small wings. If he fails to solidify a rotation spot it is likely due to his shooting. Most of the Australian league prospects have been inconsistent NBA shooters except for Lamelo. If Toohey can reach Giddey’s NBA shooting splits of 46%/33%/76% that can mean a rotation spot with better defence and less playmaking.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: 6th Man Chandler Parsons with better defence and worse playmaking
30. Tyrese Proctor
Proctor has really bizarre NCAA shooting splits as his 3P% rose in each of his 3 years, but the inverse occurred for his FT%. Because of this it is difficult to project what his NBA 3P% shooting will be which is problematic for his projection as it will be his main NBA skill. Proctor’s size and lack of rebounding and defensive stat production means that his value will overwhelmingly be on the offensive end. Proctor has been a good playmaker throughout his career, although his playmaking role decreased this year to accomodate Flagg and Kon, 2 Duke teammates that are also terrific playmakers. Proctor therefore has some potential PG upside which when paired with efficient 3P shooting can make him a productive NBA player. But because his 3P% might be subpar, I have him in the Borderline tier and not the above tier.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Jared McCain with worse 3 point shooting
31. Danny Wolf
If Flagg is the most unique prospect in this draft, Wolf would be the second. A 7 foot centre with higher ast% then some PGs on this board. Wolf is a junior and this was the first year that he was given the opportunity to operate in a Jokic like role. And the results were mixed. A really high ast%, but with a really high to% and an ast/tov ratio similar to his sophomore year. Wolf was given the reigns to shot create with a high % of unassisted shots, but wasn’t particularly efficient in any area: rim/mid/3/dunk/FT. That pared with his low dunksmade/40 means I don’t think he’ll be given the same reigns to run a Jokic role in the NBA.
On the defensive side, Wolf has the dimensions of a small C and has below average blk% and stl%. Becoming a starting defensive C is an unlikely path for Wolf. And he doesn’t have the 3P shooting to be a starting wing.
A bench role seems more likely and Wolf has one neighbour that is a rotation player in that role, Larry Nance Jr.. Nance didn’t measure at the combine, but is likely smaller than Wolf and has provided positive VORP over his career as a low usage backup PF/C. Wolf doesn’t have quite the perimeter defence of Nance and would have to completely change from a Jokic role to a low usage role, but I predict Wolf can be a rotation player in this case.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller Nance Jr with worse perimeter defence
32. Nique Clifford
Nique is one of the oldest prospects of the last 20 years, and so his previous NCAA years need to be considered for his big board placement. His shooting and playmaking really improved in his later NCAA years, but as he’s being compared to mostly younger prospects, the improvements might be misleading for his NBA prospects. Some of his role player stats (orb%, stl%, blk%) were more present in earlier NCAA years and would be more projectable especially since orb% and blk% are some of the highest correlated NCAA to NBA stats. With questionable shooting, but solid role player production, Nique does have a good neighbour in DeAndre’ Bembry, who was a borderline rotation player throughout his career.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Bembry with better shooting efficiency
Tier 7: Fringe
Worthy gambles if they develop well.
33. Drake Powell
A wing-sized player who played more in the NCAA as a low usg, mediocre shooting SG than a true wing. Notably all 10 of his nearest neighbours are SG, not wings. And Powell does not have the offensive upside that his SG neighbours have as he had the lowest usg on his UNC team (13.3). If he plays in the NBA more like a 3 and D role playing wing (orb%, stl%, blk%, dunksmade/40, rim finishing, ast/tov, 3pa/100, 3P%), he can be a rotation player as a bench, defensive wing. It’s unlikely if he’s a defensive SG that doesn’t shoot well or often.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Hamidou Diallo with better 3P shooting
34. Nolan Traore
Traore looks to break the streak of recent poor shooting French league PGs. He had a very high ast% and usg role for his team, and thus has a much higher ast% than his French league PG neighbours. His shooting however is worse than all of the same neighbours, except for Maledon, who was very inefficient in the NBA. It’ll be interesting to see if his high ast% translates to the NBA if he continues his poor shooting, but I would rather not bet on a French league PG that shot 39% FG% in the the French league.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Rodrigue Beaubois with better playmaking and worse defence
35. Noah Penda
Penda is a small Wing with under 7 foot wingspan that primarily provided defensive value for his French league team. Because he lacks the wingspan to likely effectively guard the big superstar wings like Durant and Kawhi, his draft projection as a defence focused prospect is lower on my board. He was an inconsistent 3P% and FT% shooter, which also limits his overall value. To add to the offensive concerns, he shot only 43.8% FG% despite being a 6’7 wing in the French league. This FG% is lower than French league PG Ntilikina who has shot really poorly in the NBA at 37%.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Yabusele after European hiatus
36. Hugo González
Hugo played a very limited role for Real Madrid in the Spanish league and Euroleague. He is the only prospect to play in the top cross national Euroleague, which is akin to UEFA Champions League in European football. However since he only averaged 7.5 min/g in Euroleague it was more of a cameo than a starring role. Hugo requires a lot of extrapolation for his NBA projection due to his limited role and minutes. This is risky as there are a number of European lottery prospects that were drafted high and underwhelmed like Bender and Hezonja. Hugo is a SG or small Wing who didn’t provide much playmaking or surplus defensive production in his limited role so it would be a large extrapolation to expect it in the NBA. His shooting was inconsistent in both the Spanish league and Euroleague and he likely needs to be an efficient 3 point shooter to be an NBA rotation player. A SG that isn’t a positive defensive player with potentially questionable shooting is not an archetype I favour so I classify Hugo as fringe.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Furkan Korkmaz with better shooting efficiency
37. Maxime Raynaud
Raynaud is an older small C that relies on 3 point shooting. He is poor from 2P% and especially poor at dunk finishing at 0.85. Thus because he does not protect the rim, he needs to be able to shoot 3s efficiently to have an NBA role. Quentin Post is an older rookie who has been a rotation player early in his career, but Post’s 3P% and FT% were much better than Raynaud’s. Since 3P% has poor correlation between the NCAA and NBA, and Raynaud wasn’t great at it during his NCAA career, I have him in the Fringe tier.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Quentin Post with worse 3 point shooting
38. Liam McNeeley
McNeeley had a bpm of 1.1, which is the 1st percentile amongst 1st round drafted players between 2004-2024. His best offensive skills are his FT%, ast/tov and 3 point shooting. But he shot a poor 3P% on mostly catch and shoot 3s. The rest of his role player stats were poor. His defensive stats were low (stl%, blk%) and he really struggled from 2P% especially at the rim where he shot 0.49 despite being 6’7. He has decent SG size and playmaking, so if he becomes an elite movement shooter, he can be an effective bench SG that can shoot 3s quickly and playmake effectively if he has the gravity to drag defenders towards him. He has similar combine measurements to Sam Hauser who has had a positive VORP for every season in his career in a similar role. McNeeley will have to be much better at 3P% though for this to happen. I prefer not to gamble on prospects that rely on 3P scoring efficiency so would classify him as fringe.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Sam Hauser
39. Izan Almansa
Izan is a prospect born in the wrong era. As an undersized C he lacks the physical tools and rim protection needed to be an effective C. His poor FT% at 53% makes him unlikely to provide spacing on the wing next to C. He’s an old school PF that seems unsuited for the modern NBA. The only option was if he was hyperefficient from 2P% so a team would accomodate his awkward lineup role, but he wasn’t in the Australian league so I wouldn’t expect it in the NBA.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Kevon Looney with better scoring, but worse defence
40. Hansen Yang
There aren’t many recent Chinese league prospects to compare to Yang with Zhou Qi drafted 43rd overall in 2016. Yang as a prospect isn’t noticeably better than Qi, who only played 19 NBA games. The one possibility where Yang has an advantage on Qi is in playmaking volume with a higher ast%, but not in quality as they have identical Ast/Tov ratios in the Chinese league.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Zhou Qi with better playmaking
41. Rocco Zikarsky
Rocco is a young, tall C that played a limited role for Brisbane, who had the worst defensive rating in the Australian league. Despite being 7’3 barefoot, Rocco had lower than expected FG% and blk% in the Australian league. As a poor 3P% and FT% shooter, and unable to dominate in the traditional C stats, I struggle to envision a rotation role unless he significantly improves.
Optimistic, but semi-realistic projection: Taller Dakari Johnson
